Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

WTF was that plan?

EZ as 123:

 

[juanmedina]

We should make our own Tesla commercial since Elon doesn't want to. Dan O'Dowd spent $600k to air his Super Bowl ad which is not really that much. I bet many share holders would consider putting down some money for such effort and focus mainly on affordability.

The stock tanking really messes with my head

 

[2daMoon]

It bothers me that they call "Starship" that; it is to go to planets, not stars.

Let's hold off till we can launch an actual production model Roadster to actually drive around in Mars.

Well, to be precise, it is "Star"ship, singular, not Stars-ship.

Therefore, it only operates in the vicinity of one star?

Likewise with the Mars versions of the Roadster and Cybertruck...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Thought I'd share a thought experiment I've been pondering...

Elon said interest rates are having a material impact to affordability, and thus softening demand. What if Tesla did what other legacy automotive OEMs often do to move more product- subsidize the interest rates? Would that help? Would it be more cost effective than these price reductions? Let's see!

• $50K loan for 60 months
• Current average new car loan rates ~6.0%
• Interest on this loan ~$8,000
• If subsidized down to 3.0%, interest would be ~$4,000
• Cost of loan subsidy ~$4,000

So, it's more cost effective for Tesla to cut prices by $3,000 than it would be to subsidize the loan above. Sure loan balance, term, and rate reduction change the calculus, but I found the exercise enlightening...

I’m not following the math. If Tesla sold a car for $50k and financed it at a discounted interest rate, Tesla would get $54k in revenue. If Tesla lowered the price by $3k, they would get $47k in revenue. What am I missing?

edit : I’m assuming Tesla is writing the loan to subsidize it. I see how math works if they pay a third party loan writer to subsidize

 

[Artful Dodger]

Alas, the company is doing it all wrong because they’ve chosen the mission over a few percentage points of GM.

Lol, seriously, if I understand correctly* the new U.S. "Alternative Minium Corporate Tax" is 15% as of Jan 1st, 2023. So to maximize growth, Tesla might aim to make ~15% operating margin (taxable income?) but any higher income rate is a waste of $$ that could otherwise be used to grow the business (rather than the gov't).

Cheers!

*Caveat on EV battery makers IRA tax exemptions. IIRC, @mongo informed us that certain tax structures enacted via the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) allow U.S. based battery manufacturing to lower a company's effective tax rate to slightly below the nominal 15%. In that case, Tesla could further divert income to growth, and away from U.S. taxes (building new Bty making capacity is what the law is designed to encourage). Do I have that about right?

 

[Artful Dodger]

We should make our own Tesla commercial since Elon doesn't want to. Dan O'Dowd spent $600k to air his Super Bowl ad which is not really that much. I bet many share holders would consider putting down some money for such effort and focus mainly on affordability.

Lol, do we have to get every single thing dramatically wrong like Bad O'Downer, too?

The stock tanking really messes with my head

HTH: Lesley Gore - Sunshine, Lollipops and Rainbows (1965)

Cheers!

 

[jkirkwood001]

(Nobody posted about this yet?)

VW: Volkswagen Group steps up activities in North America – Canada chosen as location for first overseas gigafactory of its battery company PowerCo SE

(AP take)

I like how even VW is calling it a "gigafactory"! It'll be a BIG factory - 2 million sq. ft. Canada and the Ontario provincial government are apparently contributing a total of $13,000,000,000 ($13 B) towards the deal! That's a lot of tax-payers money to help an OEM, but I'm sure Mexico had to pony up too for Monterrey. The factory in St. Thomas, near Detroit, will cost $7 B (assuming these are US$), which is way more than Tesla spends to build a factory, but still, good news for the mission.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

In Canada as of last night the shorter range model Y is now available. As well the AWD long range is now available for the 5000 dollar federal grant (as well as the shorter range). The Mustang Mach E’s are piling up on the ford lots here.

 

[growler23]

WTF was that plan?

Fascinating, Toyota. Plan sounds like:
1) Sell our terrible bz4x (and subsequent of that line), despite their suckiness, because we have them now.
2) Redesign an EV platform from the ground up, 15+ years after Tesla did (target 2026).
3) Use structural packs and software "frosting" (???) to achieve massive scale, 3.5 million EVs by 2030.

The mind boggles at the vast aspirational vision embedded in the fundaments of this plan. Truly.

 

[Drumheller]

Sometimes great posters come to the thread and sometimes they leave all have different reasons and the only thing we can do is value them as much as possible while they are here.


I feel very blessed to see and try and understand some of the great people that contribute and thank them for their titime.

It's ok, Joe and I still post here occasionally.

I let a very shy 7 yr old experience my Tesla a few days ago. The door handle was a puzzle, fart mode was a giggle, santa mode was a look of awe, romance mode was ‘can we make s’mores?’, the arcade was overwhelming, but sketch pad was intriguing.

The next day that shy kid approached me and asked if they could have another ride. This time they were all over the center screen exploring with confidence. Then I launched the car, introduced ‘open glovebox’ voice command, talk and text to mom’s phone as well as receiving mom’s texts that made the car ‘talk’, the vent controls, and Mars.

Got a text from mom later; the kid won’t shut up about the car. I told her, ‘sorry, not sorry but there’s still cat mode, and rainbow road, and light show, and FSD Beta, and, and, and. Tesla.com is where you order online.’

Alas, the company is doing it all wrong because they’ve chosen the mission over a few percentage points of GM.

This post is better than 99.999% commercials I've seen / heard in my lifetime. Those of you concerned about advertising, get permission and convert it into an ad.

 

[Ogre]

I thought the ^^ emoji and the rest of the obv bisarre language in my post should make it pretty clear that I was being sarcastic...

^^ ?

I've always thought that meant "Look ^^ Up at this thing".

Also. It's not an emoji. It's a couple random characters.

Mostly I'd prefer people avoid posting obvious and stupid FUD. I know others like to... but not my thing.

 

[unk45]

Presumably people who are purchasing an X (or S) aren't that concerned about inflation.

Presumably we are!

 

[woodisgood]

I let a very shy 7 yr old experience my Tesla a few days ago. The door handle was a puzzle, fart mode was a giggle, santa mode was a look of awe, romance mode was ‘can we make s’mores?’, the arcade was overwhelming, but sketch pad was intriguing.

The next day that shy kid approached me and asked if they could have another ride. This time they were all over the center screen exploring with confidence. Then I launched the car, introduced ‘open glovebox’ voice command, talk and text to mom’s phone as well as receiving mom’s texts that made the car ‘talk’, the vent controls, and Mars.

Got a text from mom later; the kid won’t shut up about the car. I told her, ‘sorry, not sorry but there’s still cat mode, and rainbow road, and light show, and FSD Beta, and, and, and. Tesla.com is where you order online.’

Alas, the company is doing it all wrong because they’ve chosen the mission over a few percentage points of GM.

Usually if you let them drive it, it really seals the deal.

 

[Ogre]

What happens when everyone does that at the same time? Also I often keep items in my vehicles that I use regularly and it would be annoying to load and unload them every time I get a robotaxi. Plus I don't want to wait for a vehicle to show up, that's not convenient. I can come up with many similar scenarios and think for a very long time those who can afford their own vehicle will continue to do so.

How much of that "inventory" is actually just goods in transit? Without knowing how many of those cars are on boats, it's kind of hard to say how "high" inventory levels are.

I'm more confused by the mixed message here. Increase prices but add Supercharger miles? Do people think Supercharger miles are worth $1/ mile?

 

[dhanson865]

Does anyone have a link of a chart for price cuts for all models from 2019? Maybe Rob's or other youtuber has it?

These are the US price cuts

 

[NicoV]

1) Sell our terrible bz4x (and subsequent of that line), despite their suckiness, because we have them now.

That’s Dilbert marketing: “Sell what you have and call it a strategy”.

 

[dhanson865]

I really dislike subscriptions but in the future, once FSD is solved, I would happily pay $129 per month.

Let's see... $129 x 1,000,000 users is $129,000,000 per month.

I'm really starting to like the subscription's now.

I don't like paying subscription prices but I'm currently paying someone other than Tesla for insurance.

If paying for FSD gave me insurance rolled in I'd be much more willing to subscribe to FSD as it's replacing a cost I already pay and would reduce the difference in price.

Besides if FSD is doing all the driving Tesla should cover the insurance.

 

[Ogre]

WTF was that plan?

Toyota's Grand Plan:

Step 1 kicked off last year with ... recall the nameplate over concerns that the wheels could fall off.

Sato said Toyota was learning from its missteps and incorporating them into the new platform.

Step 2 (coming 2026) will incorporate the Arene automotive operating system being developed by the carmaker’s renamed software subsidiary Woven by Toyota, formerly known as Woven Planet.

Sato described Toyota’s future EV, in Step 3 (coming 2030/ never), as being a kind of three-layered cake, with a new structural body, a middle layer of the Arene operating system and a frosting of software services.

Also could be stated:
Step 1 — To little
Step 2 — To late
Step 3 — Too bad to about the Japanese economy

I think people are underestimating how quickly this market is shifting. Toyota's new CEO seems to have an impossible challenge ahead of him

 

[Ogre]

I don't like paying subscription prices but I'm currently paying someone other than Tesla for insurance.

If paying for FSD gave me insurance rolled in I'd be much more willing to subscribe to FSD as it's replacing a cost I already pay and would reduce the difference in price.

Besides if FSD is doing all the driving Tesla should cover the insurance.

An FSD/ insurance bundle would be a winner. Prices would flex based on driving habits, how much you drive, and how much you use FSD.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Increase prices but add Supercharger miles? Do people think Supercharger miles are worth $1/ mile?

Based on avg 20K/yr mileage, that's 4 cents a mile for $2,500. That's some cheap charge right up in there! (I'd buy it just to do the Grand Tour!)