Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

In 2013 Musk predicted we’d hit 50% EV penetration by 2028. This chart suggests that target is easily within reach. In fact if ICE sales decline continues on its current path we may hit 50% by 2026. US lags this a bit, but may well catch up in the next couple years.

In fact, Very likely by 2028 Market will be 70% EV or greater.

 

[dhanson865]

In 2013 Musk predicted we’d hit 50% EV penetration by 2028. This chart suggests that target is easily within reach. In fact if ICE sales decline continues on its current path we may hit 50% by 2026. US lags this a bit, but may well catch up in the next couple years.

In fact, Very likely by 2028 Market will be 70% EV or greater.

View attachment 935461

Every time I've shared that graph on other forums someone goes ape over the huge up swing in future sales. So I tend to chop it down before I share it like this quick and dirty edit.

I'd even consider capping it at 125 million per year, seriously does anyone here expect 200 million a year EV production in 2038-2040?

 

[GhostSkater]

Just a fun example for this quiet day here on traction control on the Lightning not doing such a good job on asphalt

(lol, what a coincidence that the time I copied is at 4:20)

 

[Buckminster]

Not much news:
Details on FSDb V12 V12? Vision running on diffusion
11.4.1 coming soon Wiki - FSD Beta v11.x
Secret progress is still progress Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655321092062420996

 

[Gigapress]

Every time I've shared that graph on other forums someone goes ape over the huge up swing in future sales. So I tend to chop it down before I share it like this quick and dirty edit.

I'd even consider capping it at 125 million per year, seriously does anyone here expect 200 million a year EV production in 2038-2040?

View attachment 935483

It's hard to guess, but I would be cautious in assuming by default that vehicles sold per year will be the same as it was with ICEVs. We're witnessing a phase transition and the next phase will have new properties.

Even if we set aside the autonomy question, we know that EVs will be substantially more affordable than ICEVs, meaning more people can afford to have one. The only reason they aren't already the cheapest option is that the up-front sticker price is more than ICEV comparisons. Normally when a new technology delivers a substitute good that's better and less expensive than the previous technology generation, markets buy more than before.

Also, people might voluntarily retire older ICE cars earlier than they otherwise would have in order to upgrade to electric. Since cars are durable goods, there might be a transient effect for about 5-15 years where vehicle demand is elevated until the transition has completed.

Plus, developing countries are growing their economies faster than developed countries, and it's been observed that their appetite for personal car transportation increases with greater purchasing power. There's massive automotive growth potential in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico.

 

[Knightshade]

It's hard to guess, but I would be cautious in assuming by default that vehicles sold per year will be the same as it was with ICEVs. We're witnessing a phase transition and the next phase will have new properties.

Even if we set aside the autonomy question

If we don't though- isn't the whole point that one autonomous robotaxi replaces MULTIPLE normal manually driven, personally owned, vehicles? (IIRC Elon said 1 RT replaces 5 cars worth of normal weekly usage, hourly speaking)

Meaning you'd have LOWER total #s of cars sold going forward, by a reasonably significant margin- not >2x record highs.

And if we assume EVs need replacement less often then as the fleet transitions to them you'll have lower annual sales still since replacement rate drops.

I agree you could see developing nations getting richer offsetting SOME of that, but one would expect they'd also have RTs available too.

Now, if you do ignore autonomy entirely you've only got the declining replacement rate from EVs lasting longer slowing you down-- so I suppose developing nations getting richer might get you above record annual vehicle sales worldwide- but the chart suggesting 3x record highs by 2040 still seems... highly optimistic...there.

 

[Fred42]

Short weekend OT. Took a rideshare model 3 in NYC this morning. Right after pickup the car slammed on the brakes harder than I ever have in mine. Spouse didn't finished putting seatbelt on and smacked into the back of the front seat. Pedestrian walked directly in front of us from behind a parked truck. None of us saw this person. The driver was visibly shaken, he didn't even know what happened. I explained that the car did it with AEB and he was amazed.

Talking about it with my spouse I realized how few people in the general population understand the commitment to top engineering within Tesla. Not just AEB but all the invisible things. How do you make a population (of buyers, of investors) care more about substance than some fancy leather stitching on a dashboard?

Most new vehicles sold in the US have AEB.

 

[Captkerosene]

We take his little comments much too seriously and literally.

Caution: Sunday trolling.

His recent comments reflect the pretty dramatic changes in the models. At some point you need to adjust the model when it no longer matches the data.

It's good news, I'm sure I'll get ten downvotes for pointing it out. What does that tell you when you think good news is bad news?

 

[jerry33]

Most new vehicles sold in the US have AEB.

Most AEB just mitigates the crash rather than preventing it.

 

[heltok]

Most new vehicles sold in the US have AEB.

But are they trained on billions of miles of real world data? Are they using video instead of images? Are they using autolabeller software in 4D? Do they collect real world crashes and add them their dataset and update it several times per year? Are they counting photons? Are they good at balancing datasets? Etc etc.

Maybe some of them can say yes to some, but not all of these. Some cannot yes to any of these statements...

 

[dhanson865]

It's hard to guess, but I would be cautious in assuming by default that vehicles sold per year will be the same as it was with ICEVs. We're witnessing a phase transition and the next phase will have new properties.

Even if we set aside the autonomy question, we know that EVs will be substantially more affordable than ICEVs, meaning more people can afford to have one. The only reason they aren't already the cheapest option is that the up-front sticker price is more than ICEV comparisons. Normally when a new technology delivers a substitute good that's better and less expensive than the previous technology generation, markets buy more than before.

Also, people might voluntarily retire older ICE cars earlier than they otherwise would have in order to upgrade to electric. Since cars are durable goods, there might be a transient effect for about 5-15 years where vehicle demand is elevated until the transition has completed.

Plus, developing countries are growing their economies faster than developed countries, and it's been observed that their appetite for personal car transportation increases with greater purchasing power. There's massive automotive growth potential in places like India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico.

On the flip side if cars can drive themselves people might need half as many cars. A family with 4 drivers might go down to 2 cars shared between 4 people. A single person might decide to go from 1 car to 0 and just pay for the use of a service.

I currently have 3 cars and 2 drivers in my household. The 3rd car is a just the worst of the 3 and I keep it as a spare should one of the two daily drivers need repairs. I could easily drop 1, and might even drop 2 and go down to a 1 car 2 driver household if we can use a service to deal with times we need to both have a car and for emergencies where the only owned car isn't with who ever needs it at that moment.

also my 2012 EV is a better daily driver than any 10+ year old gas car I ever had. Replacement rates will drop off once all the gas cars are gone.

I fully beleve there will be an EV spike above the old gas car max. I just don't believe it will hold that peak forever. I think it will drop back down at some point.

 

[MC3OZ]

I fully beleve there will be an EV spike above the old gas car max. I just don't believe it will hold that peak forever. I think it will drop back down at some point.

That is true, the only real question is the peak rate of sales, and how long sales remain elevated.

There is a "one time" build out of the Robotaxi fleet, it it might be larger than expected, because many people without a convenient transport option might gain one.

My best guess would be around 10 years of elevated sales, perhaps 2028-2038 or something like that.

Once that peak has passed, the overwhelming majority of the fleet are EVs and the Robotaxi fleet is built, sales may drop fairly rapidly, even with a larger percentage of the world's population having a car based transport service.

Tesla seems like one company well positioned to tap the peak... having the ability to make 20 Million EVs in 2030, might be more important than having the ability to make 40 Million EVs in 2040.

Post 2040 Tesla is mostly trying to sell customers an improved version of their EV, EVs will get better and cheaper, and the closest parallel is a smart phone. Like a smart phone, sales probably will not be based on the "basic" functions. Great FSD, good entertainment, good software apps, good internet connectivity, brand, aesthetics and comfort, will all become more important. Customers will need to be convinced they need the latest and best EV. Unlike phones, EVs cost a lot more, and selling a new one to an existing customer will not always be easy.

 

[nativewolf]

That is true, the only real question is the peak rate of sales, and how long sales remain elevated.

There is a "one time" build out of the Robotaxi fleet, it it might be larger than expected, because many people without a convenient transport option might gain one.

My best guess would be around 10 years of elevated sales, perhaps 2028-2038 or something like that.

Once that peak has passed, the overwhelming majority of the fleet are EVs and the Robotaxi fleet is built, sales may drop fairly rapidly, even with a larger percentage of the world's population having a car based transport service.

Tesla seems like one company well positioned to tap the peak... having the ability to make 20 Million EVs in 2030, might be more important than having the ability to make 40 Million EVs in 2040.

Post 2040 Tesla is mostly trying to sell customers an improved version of their EV, EVs will get better and cheaper, and the closest parallel is a smart phone. Like a smart phone, sales probably will not be based on the "basic" functions. Great FSD, good entertainment, good software apps, good internet connectivity, brand, aesthetics and comfort, will all become more important. Customers will need to be convinced they need the latest and best EV. Unlike phones, EVs cost a lot more, and selling a new one to an existing customer will not always be easy.

Or computers.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Talk about desperation...

Lucid Enrages Tesla Fans With Backdoor Promotional Strategy: 'Seriously So Desperate' - Lucid Gr (NASDAQ:LCID), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), General Motors (NYSE:GM)

www.benzinga.com

 

[Xepa777]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655318205236215811

I remember how insistent Elon was just two years ago on not needing AI for decision making, only perception. And holding this belief up until last year. And I got *sugar* on hard for calling out BS on that, how it's impossible to hard code so many rules for so many edge case scenarios. I ate so many dislikes from TMCers here for saying that. Well...how the tables have turned.

 

[Electroman]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655318205236215811

I remember how insistent Elon was just two years ago on not needing AI for decision making, only perception. And holding this belief up until last year. And I got *sugar* on hard for calling out BS on that, how it's impossible to hard code so many rules for so many edge case scenarios. I ate so many dislikes from TMCers here for saying that. Well...how the tables have turned.

You get a for that.

Please point to a post of yours on that topic

 

[Ogre]

Every time I've shared that graph on other forums someone goes ape over the huge up swing in future sales. So I tend to chop it down before I share it like this quick and dirty edit.

I'd even consider capping it at 125 million per year, seriously does anyone here expect 200 million a year EV production in 2038-2040?

View attachment 935483

I think this is quite reasonable. Or even the leg between 2024 and 2030 can be compressed.

The ICE death spiral I think is the interesting bit. It is extremely difficult to manage a business in a declining industry.

I think consumers already perceive ICE vehicles as outdated. I would love to see poll on this.

 

[Ogre]

Talk about desperation...

Lucid Enrages Tesla Fans With Backdoor Promotional Strategy: 'Seriously So Desperate' - Lucid Gr (NASDAQ:LCID), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), General Motors (NYSE:GM)

www.benzinga.com

What a stupid clickbait headline. “Enrages”? Really.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

What a stupid clickbait headline. “Enrages”? Really.

Would not expect anything less, entertaining at least.

 

[Knightshade]

Talk about desperation...

Lucid Enrages Tesla Fans With Backdoor Promotional Strategy: 'Seriously So Desperate' - Lucid Gr (NASDAQ:LCID), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), General Motors (NYSE:GM)

www.benzinga.com

Seems like a perfectly reasonable marketing strategy....

It's the one place you can be certain that there will be EV owners and fans coming by regularly AND that they will generally have at least 10 or 20 minutes to kill so might be open to doing something with you in that time.

It also tells us Lucid is confident their product will compare well when a Tesla driver checks it out... and from everything I've heard that seems pretty reasonable, it's a quite nice EV- it's just an expensive and not particularly profitable one... but it's likely quite lovely to test drive.

Plus word is they've got unsold cars sitting around, might as well put them to some use!