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One issue about Knoxville, specifically the airport. Knoxville is not a heavy "destination city", not that large, not a lot of tourist areas. But it is a jump-off point for vacationers visiting the Smokey Mountains (GSMNP is the most-visited NP in the country IIRC). There is a Supercharger in the tourist hell of Pigeon Forge/Gatlinburg, but a great many visitors avoid those crowded, tacky tourist hot spots. There are beautiful areas of the park away from those locations, and a lot of great country to explore nearby....but very, very few SCs.
You know about the two new locations that are coming soon? I expect both of these to be live this Summer/Fall even though neither has hardware in place yet.


 
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You know about the two new locations that are coming soon?


Yes, at least the Bucees-but neither are available now. And Q1 '23 has come and gone-the one in Alcoa (where the Knoxville Airport is) doesn't show up on the Tesla SC map. Both are still not well located for the areas I described (Kodak is the I-40 interchange that takes you to Gatlinburg) and Alcoa is a suburb of Knox. But certainly things are improving every year.
 
michael_oh_my_god_its_happening.gif

(Not confirmed, but those definitely aren’t Model Y front castings)

They marked mine with a big green O
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A couple of thoughts on the discussion related to Highland Model 3 update, as I’ve seen that as a recurring thread over the past few days with plenty of thoughts about possible higher-trim configurations and impacts on Y demand.

A few possible objectives that I've seen articulated by the group for the Highland update are:
  • Reduce COGS through component choices and manufacturing process changes, to reach further into lower cost / higher volume territory while maintaining positive margin. Starting to implement some early next-gen mfg methods from Investor Day could be a component of this.
  • Update the cosmetic styling and minor user-facing features to maintain the appeal of the car into the future, but without making significant changes to specs.
  • Enhance performance/specs (400mi, Ludicrous, etc.) tangibly to get to higher price/margin configurations or at least maintaining price/margin as volumes increase.
Note that these are not mutually exclusive, and there are possibly additional options that I am not considering here. We know there are styling changes from spy photos, but not the extent or intent of these.

We know that Tesla is targeting ~50% CAGR over a multi-year period from 2020, which would point to annual production volume somewhere in the ballpark of ~2.5M in 2024 and ~3.9M in 2025. My inclination is to be conservative when estimating the volume contributions of Cybertruck in 2024 and Gen 3 in 2025 as those vehicles will likely still be early in their ramps and I believe we would be wise to not count on substantial volumes relative to the scale of Tesla’s auto business until ~2026.

If that is correct, Tesla would lean on Model 3 and Model Y as the primary growth drivers through 2025, and enabling less expensive configurations of Model 3 (and possibly Model Y in turn) is a way to do that. This would point towards the objective of Highland updates to primarily be manufacturing/cost optimization updates, with the styling update included while lines are down and things are changing anyway.

This speculation may be off base, but either way I am keenly interested to see how Tesla manages growth in terms of vehicle mix/specs until Gen 3 is being produced at massive scale.
I think you're right, but I think the MY in particular needs to "grow" both in the upscale market as you say, but also find ways to further reduce cost and offer a more cost-effective entry point. Size-wise, this competes against some of the best selling compact ICE CUVs. Vehicles like the RAV4, Equinox, CRV, Santa Fe, Sportage, etc. All can be had with an MSRP under or around $30k. A great many buyers are looking for the best value for their money, and go towards lower-end cars for budgetary reasons. Tesla needs to be able to serve families in those markets, buyers looking at practical, no (or at least few) frills, basic transportation, but can't deal with the limits of a sub-compact. Not sure if or how Tesla cuts prices of the Y to compete in the low-mid $30k range. Perhaps do away with the glass roof and maybe the imitation-leather interior? I doubt they'd do away with Autopilot capability-but maybe? I don't think they can cut range any further and have a vehicle acceptable to most buyers. Flip side, on the mid and higher end cars, they need to add features common on most cars in that price range. Heads-up display, vented seats and standard Homelink should be on every vehicle selling for over $40k. Just my opinion anyway. They have (again IMO) the best EV in the "luxury" compact CUV range-but that market is far more limited than the "mainstream" (aka less expensive) models of similar capacity in the ICE market.
 
I have some questions about charging. Perhaps they belong on the charging thread, but these are specific to business issues/growth/widespread adoption so I hope it's OK here.

1) In many areas, no 3-phase 480 volt service is available. Can or are Superchargers equipped with battery packs, allowing them to charge (somewhat slowly) via 240vac single-phase power? This would be limited in capacity (number of vehicles it could service) but in a less populated area that might serve a handful of vehicles a day, it might make Supercharging viable. Granted it would take a large batter pack which would be pricy.
2) How is the ownership of SC stations structured? Does Tesla own all the stations, or can an individual business own/operate one? (AFAIK Tesla owns all).
3) Is there anything preventing non-Tesla chargers being equipped with with Tesla-compatible charging cables? Much like Tesla SCs are being equipped with Magicblock CCS adaptors, is there anything preventing EA or Chargepoint from adding a Tesla charging cable to their chargers?

Thanks, these are probably pretty basic to current owners, but are things I don't see discussed.
 
Is there anything preventing non-Tesla chargers being equipped with with Tesla-compatible charging cables?
No.

In Australia, the UK and EU Tesla uses the CSS/2 standard which others support.

In North America, Tesla made the Tesla connector an open standard and published the specs.

 
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1) In many areas, no 3-phase 480 volt service is available. Can or are Superchargers equipped with battery packs, allowing them to charge (somewhat slowly) via 240vac single-phase power? This would be limited in capacity (number of vehicles it could service) but in a less populated area that might serve a handful of vehicles a day, it might make Supercharging viable. Granted it would take a large batter pack which would be pricy.
2) How is the ownership of SC stations structured? Does Tesla own all the stations, or can an individual business own/operate one? (AFAIK Tesla owns all).
3) Is there anything preventing non-Tesla chargers being equipped with with Tesla-compatible charging cables? Much like Tesla SCs are being equipped with Magicblock CCS adaptors, is there anything preventing EA or Chargepoint from adding a Tesla charging cable to their chargers?
  1. Tesla does use batteries, but I've never heard of one that is only hooked to single phase power. (Freewire and Jule make CCS chargers that do exactly that.)
  2. As far as I know Tesla owns all of the publicly available Superchargers. But I think companies can pay to put in private Superchargers. (Like for a taxi company.)
  3. Tesla opened their NACS connector to be an open standard last year. We've recently heard that CPOs are looking to add NACS cables soon. (They have been waiting for cables to be available.)
 
Not sure if or how Tesla cuts prices of the Y to compete in the low-mid $30k range.

My suggestions:-
  • Move all Model Ys to front and rear castings with 4680 battery packs.
  • Move to a simplified wiring harness and a 48V architecture
  • Use new motors free of rare earths, or with fewer rare earths.
  • Try to reduce parts and further simplify where possible.
  • Investigate cast aluminium motors:- Investor Engineering Discussions
  • Remove stalks on steering wheels.
Any weight savings and efficiency gains are used to reduce the pack size.

This doesn't get them to the low-mid $30k range, but prospective buyers need to consider TCO, factoring in fuel and maintenance savings.

The best cost savings maintain parity with existing features and specs, or don't trade away anything important.

With seats mounted on the battery pack it is no longer necessary to have a glass roof fitted after the seats are installed, so a metal roof as part of the body and painted when the body is painted is now possible. Based on what we know so far, Tesla isn't moving in that direction.

My personal opinion is that frameless glass windows are an extra layer of expense that could be removed.

The stereo systems could also be downgraded if that saved some significant money.
 
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I have some questions about charging. Perhaps they belong on the charging thread, but these are specific to business issues/growth/widespread adoption so I hope it's OK here.

1) In many areas, no 3-phase 480 volt service is available. Can or are Superchargers equipped with battery packs, allowing them to charge (somewhat slowly) via 240vac single-phase power? This would be limited in capacity (number of vehicles it could service) but in a less populated area that might serve a handful of vehicles a day, it might make Supercharging viable. Granted it would take a large batter pack which would be pricy.
2) How is the ownership of SC stations structured? Does Tesla own all the stations, or can an individual business own/operate one? (AFAIK Tesla owns all).

Superchargers need too much power to be able to be powered by low voltage like 240/480V. Which is why they are located on places where higher voltage connections are available. I’m not sure that the economics of a totally grid disconnected supercharger would work with the current megapack pricing. Technically I doubt there’s a problem.
AFAIK, Tesla owns and operates all superchargers. They make a deal with the land owner to get the rights to use a certain location as supercharger.
 
I think you're right, but I think the MY in particular needs to "grow" both in the upscale market as you say, but also find ways to further reduce cost and offer a more cost-effective entry point. Size-wise, this competes against some of the best selling compact ICE CUVs. Vehicles like the RAV4, Equinox, CRV, Santa Fe, Sportage, etc. All can be had with an MSRP under or around $30k. A great many buyers are looking for the best value for their money, and go towards lower-end cars for budgetary reasons. Tesla needs to be able to serve families in those markets, buyers looking at practical, no (or at least few) frills, basic transportation, but can't deal with the limits of a sub-compact. Not sure if or how Tesla cuts prices of the Y to compete in the low-mid $30k range. Perhaps do away with the glass roof and maybe the imitation-leather interior? I doubt they'd do away with Autopilot capability-but maybe? I don't think they can cut range any further and have a vehicle acceptable to most buyers. Flip side, on the mid and higher end cars, they need to add features common on most cars in that price range. Heads-up display, vented seats and standard Homelink should be on every vehicle selling for over $40k. Just my opinion anyway. They have (again IMO) the best EV in the "luxury" compact CUV range-but that market is far more limited than the "mainstream" (aka less expensive) models of similar capacity in the ICE market.
I doubt they would do away with the glass roof because it's much stronger than a metal roof (unless the metal roof is very thick and heavy).
 
  1. Tesla does use batteries, but I've never heard of one that is only hooked to single phase power. (Freewire and Jule make CCS chargers that do exactly that.)
  2. As far as I know Tesla owns all of the publicly available Superchargers. But I think companies can pay to put in private Superchargers. (Like for a taxi company.)
  3. Tesla opened their NACS connector to be an open standard last year. We've recently heard that CPOs are looking to add NACS cables soon. (They have been waiting for cables to be available.)
#2. In addition, there are some cases the property owner pays for the electricity (Hy-Vee does this). I don't know why, but it must have made sense to both parties at the time the lease was signed. Typically Tesla pays for the electricity.
 
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Superchargers need too much power to be able to be powered by low voltage like 240/480V. Which is why they are located on places where higher voltage connections are available. I’m not sure that the economics of a totally grid disconnected supercharger would work with the current megapack pricing. Technically I doubt there’s a problem.
AFAIK, Tesla owns and operates all superchargers. They make a deal with the land owner to get the rights to use a certain location as supercharger.
Superchargers and Megapacks both operate on 480V 3-phase locally. However, powercompanies don't typically use that for distribution and so chargers/ battery farms have step down transformers on site.
First, you are off by a factor of 100. (That would only be MegaWatts, not GigaWatts.) Second, stalls do not have a dedicated 250kW supply. 4 stalls share a cabinet that only supplies 350kW of power. (Though they can borrow power from other cabinets or battery storage.)

So if all stalls are in use with empty Teslas, and there is no battery storage, each stall is limited to ~90kW. (Unless the number of stalls is not a multiple of 4 in which case the limit would be slightly higher.)

View attachment 682416

  • 10 V3 SC stalls = 3 cabinets = 1.05MW theoretical peak load
  • 20 V3 SC stalls = 5 cabinets = 1.75MW theoretical peak load
8.3kV to 480V at MP installation:

http://dryden.ny.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/WWTP_NewGateConfig_06102020.pdf

Giga Austin has a 345kV feed from the switchyard to the MP farm.
https://interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/35077_1363_1179220.PDF