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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I disagree with the notion Tesla "can't" do it all alone. I feel they can, it's just not an optimal scenario for the world. I do feel many current auto makers will not survive the EV transition though, they just aren't moving fast enough to keep up, and their ICE infrastructure will soon be a ball and chain around their ankles in the ocean. IMHO. :cool:
I’m long on record saying not only can Tesla do it alone, but they likely will. And by ‘alone’, I mean do the VAST majority.
 
Your “pity” is besides the point. It’s their money to spend as they see fit. And trust me, their dollar is just as green as yours.

The CEOs of other car companies have political views as well. They just choose not to be vocal about them on Twitter because being a political commentator is fundamentally incompatible with being the CEO of a public company.

Elon will never change. Odds are he will get much worse as he gets older. He is already flirting with anti-semitism and racism and carrying water for Putin. At this point, every Tesla investor needs to accept Elon for who he is or sell.
I believe him when he said in the interview he’s “pro-Semite”, nice turn of phrase. He said he hates Soros, and has his reasons, no one is “anti-purplepeople” because they hate one purple person. I would be highly amused to see Soros eat a large opportunity loss with a TSLA spurt here for several months (among other reasons).
 
Mod: It's impossible to police at times like this, so a VERY temporary pass... --ggr
My suggestion to mods. When there are hot debates about a particular issue that is quite at the top of things the market is concerned about - demand, ads, FSD and dare I saw even Twitter - allow those to be discussed in this thread. Even if it looks a little ugly and unruly. Truly esoteric subjects that will not move the market much in the short/medium term - that should be discussed in separate threads.

If we don't talk about things that worries the market most - whats the point of this thread, anyway ?

ps : May be this should a discussion for another thread ;)
 
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I’m long on record saying not only can Tesla do it alone, but they likely will. And by ‘alone’, I mean do the VAST majority.

I wouldn't be surprised if some day legacy car makers turn to Tesla to help them build their EVs by buying/licensing motors, batteries, entire skateboards, software, etc. They basically take Tesla's skateboard and put their own body, interior, and user experience on it.

In general, the transition to EVs reminds me a lot of the personal computer market, and Tesla could be a combo of Apple, Microsoft, Intel, and Nvidia of this market.
 
Impossible to say that considering the sizable price drops combined with new subsidies. If you drop prices low enough you will find buyers no matter what.
Except the price drop is across all markets, not just in the US. If you expect Elon's behavior has an impact on demand, should be obvious that it'll have significantly larger effect in the US market, than say China where the impact should be near zero. But as far as I'm aware the US doesn't have a bigger price drop than China, in fact it's the opposite: We have constant China demand fears pushing down TSLA, I haven't seen a US demand fear doing this.
 
Impossible to say that considering the sizable price drops combined with new subsidies. If you drop prices low enough you will find buyers no matter what. It's also impossible to quantify the other side of the argument as you can't easily separate macro worries/rates etc.

I don't know how anyone can say otherwise. It's clear.

“I’ll say what I want, and if the consequence of that is losing money, so be it.”

Best selling car on three continents is far from "impossible to say" would you not agree?

Fastest growing automaker is far from "impossible to say" is it not?

Highest gross margin for products and ability to dynamically adjust pricing in order to balance production with demand may be new to the industry, but it is also far from "impossible to say" when demonstrating the marginal impact a few people's displeasure with how someone's words impact sales.

Tesla doesn't seem to be affected by it as it continues to grow exponentially.

This is "in your face" logic and reason. Speculate all you want on how the minutia might be affected, the bottom line says that Tesla is growing regardless of these very few, yet highly vocal, people.
 
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Best selling car on three continents is far from "impossible to say" would you not agree?

Fastest growing automaker is far from "impossible to say" is it not?

Highest gross margin for products and ability to dynamically adjust pricing in order to balance production with demand may be new to the industry, but it is also far from "impossible to say" when demonstrating the marginal impact a few people's displeasure with someone's words impacts sales.

Tesla doesn't seem to be affected by it as it continues to grow exponentially.

This is "in your face" logic and reason. Speculate all you want on how the minutia might be affected, the bottom line says that Tesla is growing regardless of these very few, yet highly vocal, people.
You said this was not impacting Tesla sales, which yes, it's impossible to say that. You don't have the data. By that logic we can say the macro environment and interest rate increases aren't impacting Tesla sales.

Yes Tesla is growing. I didn't dispute that and I don't think anyone else did either.
 
My take was different.

I heard him say that he won't be bullied or pushed around and feels that the risk for personal harm is a small price to pay in order to speak his mind. What he was clear about is that sometimes he might be wrong. He also has no problem owning up when he realizes his mistakes.

The thing I like best about Elon is that he doesn't pull punches or tiptoe around an issue trying to determine what everyone else wants him to say. He is steadfast and never requires you to read between the lines.
What you just wrote is entirely different than your previous comment. This one is on target, that last was not.
 
If one checks TikTok, Elon has a huge amount of support in the comments and I couldn't even get through all of them in one reading. A lot of people are saying they will buy a Tesla because of his views, not in spite of them. He's winning new fans and supporters even if it's no longer the same demographic. It's not simply a 'loss' based on anecdotes or the baying of a vocal minority.

I would also expect women to be more sensitive to Elon's red-pilled BroCEO musings than men. I know one woman who refuses to buy a Tesla, so she sticks with her Bolt, suffers range anxiety, and a relies on a sub-par charging network which could brick her car. She wouldn't even admit her disdain for Elon until I pressed her a bit about it because I was trying to convince her to buy a Tesla Model 3, for all of the obvious reasons. Her friend who slammed Elon feels the same way.

I've never been herd-minded, so I prefer to stick to first principles over groupthink. I'm glad Elon is the same way, but he's actually making big decisions that don't simply follow convention where it isn't already 'best practices'. Revolutionaries are often disagreeable in many respects, like Apple co-founder Steve Jobs. Opinionated people with courage and tenacity are going to offend people, even if they try to sanitize their opinions for the masses.

Whilst celebrating his success after landing a probe on a comet, European Space Agency's Matt Taylor got raked over the coals simply for wearing a pin-up girl art shirt (on camera), which was created by a female artist friend. He made the mistake of tearfully apologizing, but Elon wouldn't do that. That's a key to his success. What people need to realize is that with the mob, there is no path to redemption. Hand-waving apologies aren't the way, and Elon knows this.

A lot of people simply believe the wildly biased media and repeat the noises their friends make, but Elon is so successful because he is not like that. He's a first-principles critical thinker, but most people aren't.

Another guy I know who dislikes Elon might be to the left of Ed Begley Jr. but he drives a Tesla anyway. Not everyone is offended by Elon, and some of us appreciate his honesty, candor, and humor. Many find his resistance to the 'woke mind virus' extremely refreshing. Elon's resistance to this perceived 'mind virus' is certainly a lone voice of dissent among CEOs, especially from someone with his social media reach.

Should a CEO not Tweet about politics or political views? Maybe, but that's not Elon, and Elon is a critical component to the existence and success of Tesla and SpaceX. Without Elon, neither would exist today as they do. Would people rather have someone like Mary Barra as Tesla's CEO?

Any revolution needs people like Elon who are more ambitious than agreeable, with a huge amount of courage and tolerance for risk. That is not going to be someone who wants to please everyone or offend nobody. People were also offended by the idea of anesthesia for surgery, powered-flight, or the idea that Earth was not the center of the Universe (Galileo). Every revolution has had its detractors, and it's the usual and expected noise against those who dare to change the world for the better.

The media is obviously biased in one direction. The FUD and hit pieces against Elon and Tesla are laughable. Either way, Tesla revolutionized EVs, SpaceX revolutionized space flight, Elon will Elon, and I am optimistic about the future.

TSLA is moon-bound.
 
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You said this was not impacting Tesla sales, which yes, it's impossible to say that. You don't have the data. By that logic we can say the macro environment and interest rate increases aren't impacting Tesla sales.

Yes Tesla is growing. I didn't dispute that and I don't think anyone else did either.

So, let me ask you this. Do you not consider the quarterly and annual reports as data?

Do you not consider comparison to the sales trajectories of other automakers with less vocal CEOs as data?

Do you not consider exponential growth curves as data?

What sort of percentage of higher sales do you think that Elon being cautious with his words would net Tesla? 100% more? 50% more? 1% more? Less than this?

Frankly, I expect that there are two sides to this coin in that for every person he might offend there is another he wins over who was ambivalent. Now this I have no data for, but idle speculation about the imagined affect cannot be measured.

In the end all we can do is look at whether or not Tesla continues to grow. If it does, exponentially, then is this a problem worth spending time fretting over?
 
I really wish the complaints about the Tesla "price drop," both here and in the media, would either stop completely, or at least acknowledge the truth. Stating it so bluntly shows somebody is either ill-informed or being purposely disingenuous. Even Elon pointed out one aspect of this simple truth yesterday:

-During the vehicle supply crunch over the last couple years, Tesla and just about every other vehicle seller raised prices. Enormously. Tesla raised theirs via the actual MSRP/list price, others via enormous dealer mark-ups in addition to some MSRP increases. Prices are basically back down to "normal" levels now...for both Tesla and most others.

The other aspect of the "truth" that this argument neglects is that:
- Tesla was NEVER selling all their cars at those inflated prices. Anybody with an earlier reservations was getting their car at their cheaper/earlier reserved price. That might be a small fraction, but I was one of those lucky ones -- reserved a 7-seat Model Y close to the initial/announced pricing....but with the delay in releasing the 7-seater and the "backlog" by the time I could confirm my order, I ended up getting my car for well below the then-current prices. Similarly, as prices have come down, many folks who reserved at higher prices might actually get the car at lower prices. I believe Tesla's "rules" for price changes between reservation and delivery always favor the customer.

And, a third aspect of the truth is that:
- Tesla is GROWING sales in an economic environment with higher interest rates and other macro-economic concerns. Comparing pricing to the preceding era of free-money and a vehicle supply crunch, while not noting all these other variables and pricing changes by other vehicle sellerse, is worse than apples/oranges.

Honestly, the Media (very much including smaller sites like Jalopnik) really play it both ways so that Tesla loses eitehr way, and many people (here and elsewhere) seem to buy into it: when prices are high, Tesla is only making "toys for the rich" and all the complaints that go along with that. When prices come back down, Tesla is clearly suffering from demand issues and the business will fail! Just look at how they've lost "EV Marketshare!" ((Which leads me to another rant about "EV Marketshare" being a false metric that the anti-Tesla crowd uses, while completely ignoring the fact that Tesla sales and VEHICLE Marketshare are rising...but I'll spare this group from that rant.))
 
So to provide additional depth to @gene ’s comment about people at the EV event not buying a Tesla because ‘fill in the blank’.

Recently was chatting to a random Mountain dude about my Tesla. He had lots of questions and zero comments or opinions about Elon. At one point in the conversation I mentioned Tesla will have a
pickup on the market soon - he was aware of the CyberTruck. I then said if he preferred a more traditional looking electric pickup I said he could buy a Ford Lightning. At which point he spat out some chaw and proclaimed he’d never buy a Ford. I failed to ask him why because I didn’t actually care why.

So, you see, people who won’t buy a Tesla for ‘fill in the blank’ are not special or different. There will always be people who won’t buy an Apple phone for some reason, or a Bissell for some reason, etc….
 
In the end all we can do is look at whether or not Tesla continues to grow. If it does, exponentially, then is this a problem worth spending time fretting over?
That's the important part. I said that in my earlier post. Elon won't change, most of us won't change our minds, so it's just a factor to build into your model if you are concerned. Arguing about it is pretty pointless until something major changes.
 
My take was different.

I heard him say that he won't be bullied or pushed around and feels that the risk for personal harm is a small price to pay in order to speak his mind. What he was clear about is that sometimes he might be wrong. He also has no problem owning up when he realizes his mistakes.

The thing I like best about Elon is that he doesn't pull punches or tiptoe around an issue trying to determine what everyone else wants him to say. He is steadfast and never requires you to read between the lines.
I tend to agree. Elon is a decent, smart hard working guy who feels his free speech is worth more than the financial consequences of him saying and doing whatever he wants. A true stand up guy who doesn’t pull punches or play games no matter what the consequences. I like him. And I hope the board takes action as fast as they can to fire his a$$ out of the company. Definitely not a guy I want running a company I am invested in. He would be much better suited to a private company.

Jmho.
 
as of today, TSLA is +40.52% YTD 2023
suppose TSLA moves not another dollar for rest of 2023 and sp stays totally stagnant at $173 but going forward every single year for next 5 years it goes up 40% CAGR
then in 5 years $930
10 years TSLA will be at $5000
15 yrs $26,913
20 years $144,746
overly simplistic yet astounding
just to illustrate power of compounding for long term buy and hold
not financial advice

PS: since IPO in 2010 june, TSLA as of today sp up 173X
if that ever happens then $29,929 sp by 2037 , next 14 yrs
even half of that $14,964 over next 14 years
okay, how about 1/4th? sp mere $7482 by 2037

just for fun
not to be taken seriously
not financial advice
 
Your “pity” is besides the point. It’s their money to spend as they see fit. And trust me, their dollar is just as green as yours.

The CEOs of other car companies have political views as well. They just choose not to be vocal about them on Twitter because being a political commentator is fundamentally incompatible with being the CEO of a public company.

Elon will never change. Odds are he will get much worse as he gets older. He is already flirting with anti-semitism and racism and carrying water for Putin. At this point, every Tesla investor needs to accept Elon for who he is or sell.

Proof of anti-semitism please. Because in the CNBC yesterday he denied this specific claim, and called it out and listed how his views have been pro-semitic.

I think you are watching too much MSM, should probably watch interviews of him instead (i.e. go to the source).
 
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