Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

I have to wonder how much of this is caused by EV manufacturers wanting to avoid a bunch of RFI interference on AM that would make it useless anyway. All those electronics and motors have to be putting out lots of harmonics, IMO.

True story, in my car stereo install days, I think it was Pioneer who used to include a noise suppressor for the spark plugs! I would just cut your distributor wire, and screw the ends into a cylinder the size of chap stick. Yikes!

 

[madodel]

Yes, I recheck every few months to be certain.

In 10 years I've gotten 2 invites. First to the Giga opening and then to this year's Shareholder meeting.

 

[Optimeer]

Came here to post this

Awesome charging curve, maybe one of the best of every EV on the road

Assuming if you start at lower SOC it keeps the 172 kW, it’s maintaining 2.85 C up to 50%, and 10-50% should take 8,5 minutes

10-80% in 17 minutes, or the same as Hyundai group E-GMP cars, but that in a efficient vehicle instead of theirs

Make me wonder if by any change the new Model 3 LR with lower range could be using BYD packs, don’t think so if it’s just LFP, and no LFMP

But a charging curve like that on a Model 3 would make it better than the Model S LR road tripping wise

These are fantastic news for so many reasons:

• These batteries are low cost
• Batteries are Nickel and Cobalt free, so probably easier to scale from a raw materials perspective.
• We can assume that BYD as a supplier is able to scale their production in China. By the way, I would not expect quality issues with these batteries since Tesla did rigid testing and rejected BYD’s solution at least two times. This was the reason for the significant delay for the use of these batteries in Berlin (I remember that the slow charging rate was one reason for the delay of the introduction of these batteries).
• The new battery pack is structural which has several advantages from a manufacturing standpoint as well as for the customer.
• Offers in the medium term a mitigation strategy if the 4680 battery production of Generation 2 (Dry/Dry) in Austin and later in Nevada ramps slower than expected. It’s not that I expect a slower ramp. I think it is possible that already 4680 batteries Gen 2 are used (in stealth mode) to build production cars / Model Y LR. I plan to explain my thinking behind this in a future post.
• The fantastic charging curve enables the use of small battery packs, e.g. in future Gen 3 cars, since the charging curve remains acceptable despite the smaller battery capacity. With smaller batteries, more cars can be built out of the same GWh’s of batteries.
• It explains a minimal increase of the “inventory” Model Y cars in Europe. I was actually able to find a Made in Germany Model Y RWD car in the inventory in a few minutes in Germany. Troy explained on twitter how to do this. So Germany has today the “same” car available in inventory in a Shanghai-built and in a Berlin-built configuration (same color, same wheels etc.). Now in the inventory this configuration at a certain point of sale shows up as two cars (Shanghai and Berlin). Until March it showed only one car (only Shanghai-built). I would guess this effect is blows up the inventory issue by 0-1 % in Europe. ok not much, but still good to know. This effect comes also into play for the Model Y LR in the European market, which are also built in Berlin and Shanghai.

And last, it offers an opportunity to increase adoption of EV’s from Tesla in the medium term.

• At least in Switzerland, where I live, most live in rental appartments and these people have to ask the administration if they could like to install electric charging. It’s not that it is not possible, but in the population many don’t like to do an extra effort, they just have other priorities in their life. So these people would buy for example an hybrid, a car which appears to be somewhat ecological (despite not being able to charge it). If a car has a good charging curve, it is possible to do the charging up while you do your shopping, eat at Mc Donalds, go to the fitness center etc. (provided the future installation of powerful charging stations at these points). I would say in Switzerland the affordability of the cars is already now no more the No 1 obstacle reason to significantly increase the market share of EV’s.

Maybe its more that I hope faster charging and especially a flatter charging curve (more predictable charging rate for the customer) enables mass adoption of EV’s. I guess Elon Musk was not concerned about daily charging for the masses since he assumed that FSD will be a reality very soon and after that the cars could charge during night by driving itself to the next super charger.

 

[mongo]

This helps set the context. But why is this an issue only with Tesla? Every EV has regen.

Many have a much weaker regen set as default, or it's tied to the brake pedal, or both.

In addition, Tesla can make this change at effectively zero cost. I see this as more of a back propagated regulator requested feature addition.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

It is absolutely about unintended acceleration. (But it isn't about uncommanded acceleration.) Unintended acceleration is all about pedal misapplication.

What is happening is people are slowing down, and forgetting that their foot is on the accelerator. So when they need to stop they just press, which accelerates, they panic and press more. And appareantly can't figure out what is going on and take their foot off of the accelerator. So China is forcing Tesla to make two changes:

1. Add a "low regen" option, so that people don't get the feel that their foot is on the brakes when they are off the accelerator and letting the car slow down.
2. An alert to notify the driver if they have the accelerator floored for a period of time. (i.e. "Hey dumbshit, you have the accelerator floored, don't you really want to press the brakes instead?")

Both items are about trying to help bad drivers avoid/mitigate unintended acceleration. (There seems to be a bunch of reports of it recently, even by taxi drivers.)

Super good explanation Mike. Would you mind if I take a screen shot of the pertinent paragraphs and put it on a group that was discussing this? I’ll reference your screen name here if you like.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Seems like

If you were following the options this morning, the number of puts at 175 and especially 177.5 grew a lot so there was actual incentive for MM's to keep it above that number. Surprised it closed above 180 but if I remember correctly, what matters is what is closes at after hours so they'll likely easily push it back down to 179.99

Ask and you shall receive. As it is written.

 

[EVWatcher]

Yes, I recheck every few months to be certain.

At least I don’t feel like the only one now. After I registered I expected some signs of life in my inbox to indicate I was entered into the lottery or “sorry the lottery is closed, we hope you can come next time”. But I haven’t received anything other than the occasional “remember to vote”. It’s a little aggravating.

 

[mongo]

At least I don’t feel like the only one now. After I registered I expected some signs of life in my inbox to indicate I was entered into the lottery or “sorry the lottery is closed, we hope you can come next time”. But I haven’t received anything other than the occasional “remember to vote”. It’s a little aggravating.

At least for the last meeting you needed to follow a link to enter the drawing.

 

[wipster]

Seems like

If you were following the options this morning, the number of puts at 175 and especially 177.5 grew a lot so there was actual incentive for MM's to keep it above that number. Surprised it closed above 180 but if I remember correctly, what matters is what is closes at after hours so they'll likely easily push it back down to 179.99

Well, you called that one @StarFoxisDown!

Edit: But I'll probably sleep better anyway (if the drugs are good that is ;-)

 

[EVWatcher]

At least for the last meeting you needed to follow a link to enter the drawing.

I did that. But when you sign up it gives you the option to sign up for other stuff like earnings reports in your email, which I did sign up for and haven’t received anything.

If it wasn’t directly through the tesla website I would have assumed it was some sort of phishing scam at this point.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ask and you shall receive. As it is written.

I'll never understand how that manipulation is "legal" but if some guy goes on Reddit and tells people to buy a stock he will probably go to jail for a pump and dump. Well, I mean I understand that it's because of corruption, but you know what I mean.

 

[mongo]

I did that. But when you sign up it gives you the option to sign up for other stuff like earnings reports in your email, which I did sign up for and haven’t received anything.

If it wasn’t directly through the tesla website I would have assumed it was some sort of phishing scam at this point.

Huh, I get notices when earnings reports are posted. Did you at least get a confirmation email when you signed up? Junk main folder is clear?

 

[EVWatcher]

Huh, I get notices when earnings reports are posted. Did you at least get a confirmation email when you signed up? Junk main folder is clear?

Junk folder is clear. Reached out to them about it multiple times.

 

[Tony73]

But yeah, it turns out while the Lucid is efficient, it isn't much better than the Tesla Model S. (However, it does have a ~25% larger battery, so it does have more range.)

Achieving slightly higher efficiency with a 25% larger battery is non trivial. Cars with smaller batteries are supposed to be more efficient (everything else being equal). Model S60 got better miles per kWh than S85 back in the day

 

[FreqFlyer]

These are fantastic news for so many reasons:

• These batteries are low cost
• Batteries are Nickel and Cobalt free, so probably easier to scale from a raw materials perspective.
• We can assume that BYD as a supplier is able to scale their production in China. By the way, I would not expect quality issues with these batteries since Tesla did rigid testing and rejected BYD’s solution at least two times. This was the reason for the significant delay for the use of these batteries in Berlin (I remember that the slow charging rate was one reason for the delay of the introduction of these batteries).
• The new battery pack is structural which has several advantages from a manufacturing standpoint as well as for the customer.
• Offers in the medium term a mitigation strategy if the 4680 battery production of Generation 2 (Dry/Dry) in Austin and later in Nevada ramps slower than expected. It’s not that I expect a slower ramp. I think it is possible that already 4680 batteries Gen 2 are used (in stealth mode) to build production cars / Model Y LR. I plan to explain my thinking behind this in a future post.
• The fantastic charging curve enables the use of small battery packs, e.g. in future Gen 3 cars, since the charging curve remains acceptable despite the smaller battery capacity. With smaller batteries, more cars can be built out of the same GWh’s of batteries.
• It explains a minimal increase of the “inventory” Model Y cars in Europe. I was actually able to find a Made in Germany Model Y RWD car in the inventory in a few minutes in Germany. Troy explained on twitter how to do this. So Germany has today the “same” car available in inventory in a Shanghai-built and in a Berlin-built configuration (same color, same wheels etc.). Now in the inventory this configuration at a certain point of sale shows up as two cars (Shanghai and Berlin). Until March it showed only one car (only Shanghai-built). I would guess this effect is blows up the inventory issue by 0-1 % in Europe. ok not much, but still good to know. This effect comes also into play for the Model Y LR in the European market, which are also built in Berlin and Shanghai.

And last, it offers an opportunity to increase adoption of EV’s from Tesla in the medium term.

• At least in Switzerland, where I live, most live in rental appartments and these people have to ask the administration if they could like to install electric charging. It’s not that it is not possible, but in the population many don’t like to do an extra effort, they just have other priorities in their life. So these people would buy for example an hybrid, a car which appears to be somewhat ecological (despite not being able to charge it). If a car has a good charging curve, it is possible to do the charging up while you do your shopping, eat at Mc Donalds, go to the fitness center etc. (provided the future installation of powerful charging stations at these points). I would say in Switzerland the affordability of the cars is already now no more the No 1 obstacle reason to significantly increase the market share of EV’s.

Maybe its more that I hope faster charging and especially a flatter charging curve (more predictable charging rate for the customer) enables mass adoption of EV’s. I guess Elon Musk was not concerned about daily charging for the masses since he assumed that FSD will be a reality very soon and after that the cars could charge during night by driving itself to the next super charger.

If battery being used (BYD or TEsla's) is structural, then the M3 can move to castings front and back. A big way to reduce cost, the stated goal.

 

[MartinAustin]

In 10 years I've gotten 2 invites. First to the Giga opening and then to this year's Shareholder meeting.

I'm gonna suggest they scrap the "+1" business. Just invite twice as many people.

 

[GhostSkater]

These are fantastic news for so many reasons:

• These batteries are low cost
• Batteries are Nickel and Cobalt free, so probably easier to scale from a raw materials perspective.
• We can assume that BYD as a supplier is able to scale their production in China. By the way, I would not expect quality issues with these batteries since Tesla did rigid testing and rejected BYD’s solution at least two times. This was the reason for the significant delay for the use of these batteries in Berlin (I remember that the slow charging rate was one reason for the delay of the introduction of these batteries).
• The new battery pack is structural which has several advantages from a manufacturing standpoint as well as for the customer.
• Offers in the medium term a mitigation strategy if the 4680 battery production of Generation 2 (Dry/Dry) in Austin and later in Nevada ramps slower than expected. It’s not that I expect a slower ramp. I think it is possible that already 4680 batteries Gen 2 are used (in stealth mode) to build production cars / Model Y LR. I plan to explain my thinking behind this in a future post.
• The fantastic charging curve enables the use of small battery packs, e.g. in future Gen 3 cars, since the charging curve remains acceptable despite the smaller battery capacity. With smaller batteries, more cars can be built out of the same GWh’s of batteries.
• It explains a minimal increase of the “inventory” Model Y cars in Europe. I was actually able to find a Made in Germany Model Y RWD car in the inventory in a few minutes in Germany. Troy explained on twitter how to do this. So Germany has today the “same” car available in inventory in a Shanghai-built and in a Berlin-built configuration (same color, same wheels etc.). Now in the inventory this configuration at a certain point of sale shows up as two cars (Shanghai and Berlin). Until March it showed only one car (only Shanghai-built). I would guess this effect is blows up the inventory issue by 0-1 % in Europe. ok not much, but still good to know. This effect comes also into play for the Model Y LR in the European market, which are also built in Berlin and Shanghai.

And last, it offers an opportunity to increase adoption of EV’s from Tesla in the medium term.

• At least in Switzerland, where I live, most live in rental appartments and these people have to ask the administration if they could like to install electric charging. It’s not that it is not possible, but in the population many don’t like to do an extra effort, they just have other priorities in their life. So these people would buy for example an hybrid, a car which appears to be somewhat ecological (despite not being able to charge it). If a car has a good charging curve, it is possible to do the charging up while you do your shopping, eat at Mc Donalds, go to the fitness center etc. (provided the future installation of powerful charging stations at these points). I would say in Switzerland the affordability of the cars is already now no more the No 1 obstacle reason to significantly increase the market share of EV’s.

Maybe its more that I hope faster charging and especially a flatter charging curve (more predictable charging rate for the customer) enables mass adoption of EV’s. I guess Elon Musk was not concerned about daily charging for the masses since he assumed that FSD will be a reality very soon and after that the cars could charge during night by driving itself to the next super charger.

Really good

And for all I've seen, calculated and extrapolated so far on 4680s, their charge curve might be better or on par compared to those ones

Good news all around

 

[dhanson865]

Does anyone have Germany April 2023 sales by model? Like a list with these suspects and actual totals?

• Volkswagen Golf
• Tesla Model Y
• Volkswagen T-Toc
• Volkswagen Tiguan

I've been able to find random articles for Feb and March but not April. I'm still waiting for Model Y to consistently beat the VW Golf on it's home turf (It did so once in Sept 2022 but hasn't repeated the lead since)

Spoiler: prior articles

• Feb 2023 Golf #1, Model Y #2 Germany February 2023: VW Golf and Tesla Model Y dominate in another disappointing month (+2.8%)
• Mar 2023 more of the same Golf #1, Model Y #2 https://vrumcar.com/news/germany-car-sales-march-2023-one-car-ruins-the-big-volkswagen-party/5825/

 

[GhostSkater]

Now I watched, and as expected, Ultium is nothing, actually it's worse than nothing

This is one of the worst battery pack designs I've seen so far, and they are putting similar ones on every new product, there is no way in hell they can scale production with those designs, much less making a profit

It's to the point that the only explanation is that they took their best engineers, and told them to put their abilities and uttermost care to make the worst design possible as a way to hamper production and continue building ICE, because it's too many bad decisions at the same product to be made by incompetence alone

What boils my blood is the thermal design (pun intended), a engineer has to be pretty stupid to use the smallest contact area possible between a cell and a cooling plate

Now, Ford did exactly that on the Lightning pack, but GM managed to one up them, and took the cooling plate which the cell make contact and oriented such as the bumpy side that are the fluid channels face the cells, so instead of having a thin layer of thermal adhesive, you have a thick bead that insulates the cells from your cooling

The cells basically have no heating or cooling at any meaningful rate, sure it works, but your 10-80% charging session takes 60 minutes, also there will be an enormous temperature delta between coldest and hottest spot on the pack, meaning uneven aging inside the pack which will show up after a few years on the road

But wait, they managed to make it even worse, the thermistors (temperature sensors) are placed on each module in a place where you don't get a good estimation of the hottest temperature or the coldest, and also in a way that it doesn't have proper contact with the hottest or coldest cell

This circle us back to the traction control subject, if you have good engineering and can be on the edge, you can extract the maximum of your product, else you have to be conservative

Let's hope GM is being quite conservative and that the cells aren't cooking themselves and we will have another Bolt incident with the Hummer

But from what we've seen so far with the water intrusion recall, it wouldn't surprise me. Would you guys believe that a battery enclosure made of more than a hundred stamped and welded steel pieces that need to be properly sealed between each would have had problems with being water tight? Shocking

 

[Drumheller]

Weren't there only 2 hummer EVs sold in last quarter or last year? And 1 went to a GM exec. Was the other bought by Munro for a tear down? Is that the total customer base, so far?