Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Im not a Cybertruck customer, but TBH the wheel-yoke (woke?) doesnt look too bad to me. I never liked the yoke, I think the model Y wheel is pretty good.
The thing that would bother me is the apparent lack of stalks? Is this 100% confirmed? The cybertruck going stalk-less and trying to *guess* when you will indicate or do other stalk stuff?
The TeslaVision replacement for ultrasonic sensors is worse than useless TBH. I just totally ignore it. It was a step too far in terms of penny-pinching for a premium car.
If future Teslas dont have stalks, I'll be keeping my model Y until it falls to bits. This feels like a step way too far. (USS was bad enough).

Yeah I think the 3/Y setup is just a nice balance between "a million buttons" and "just a screen". I like my stalks. I don't see why vision can't replace USS but from what I see online maybe it's only 80% of the way there.

That said, I'll buy a Cybertruck even if Elon stops by my house and punches me in the face.

 

[Knightshade]

Yeah I think the 3/Y setup is just a nice balance between "a million buttons" and "just a screen". I like my stalks. I don't see why vision can't replace USS but from what I see online maybe it's only 80% of the way there.

Blind spots below the hood-line in front mainly. That's most of the failures of the vision-only parking/distance stuff I've seen. AI is powerful, but it's not magic. You can't see what you can't see. Camera guessing on distance in normal driving is "good enough" because in normal driving you're never going to drive near enough to something that a few inches wrong makes any difference if you're off. Maneuvering in tight parking situations being off a few inches on something the cameras can no longer see at all can make a much larger difference- and that's exactly what you see in the "only 80%" videos.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

I'm banking on FSD and Energy. Auto sales will continue to grow, but they are simply going to be the "vehicle" (pun intended) to sell FSD. This is a 10-year time horizon (and I'm the kind of guy that will never retire anyway - so the funds are all to pass on to my kids).

I see. I'd argue then that it is not fair to say that EPS are substantially depressed due to capex and expansion plans. Seems like the bull case now rests much more heavily on FSD and energy than it did before. This is a significant change from early 2022 where we could have a $1T+ valuation based on auto vehicle sales alone.

 

[cliff harris]

TBH I would be happy if they just gave me access to the front camera. When Im pulling forwards into a parking space with a big bollard, It would be trivial for my mere human eyes to look at the camera and pull up close enough, but apparently the cutting edge AI cannot manage this at all. Its constantly telling me to stop when I'm a foot or more away from an object.
Plus it cant discriminate between some soft foliage (ok for me to touch) and a concrete post. My human eyes can do this. Just give me the forward facing camera view! I know its there!

 

[cliff harris]

Seems like the bull case now rests much more heavily on FSD and energy than it did before. This is a significant change from early 2022 where we could have a $1T+ valuation based on auto vehicle sales alone.

I think there is still a very strong bull case purely for vehicle sales. The full ramp up of Berlin and Texas is still to come, Semi mass production still to come, Cybertruck is still to come, and the full impact of 4680s is still to come. This is all happening at a time when a Tesla-initiated price war is revealing just how vulnerable all the competitors are in terms of finance. Right now, its ok for them to publish ambitious targets, and claims of future profitability, but until now they have not been really forced to compete on price.

I'm bullish on energy, and bearish on FSD, but I still think Tesla is hugely undervalued. I think the market will re-evaluate things once either Lucid or Rivian collapses, or when they start to see the true impact of the EV transition for Ford/GM.

Most analysts still think of Tesla as a car company, not even an 'auto' company. When Tesla can offer serious quantities of semis and trucks, they will have to re-evaluate their total addressable market. Even ignoring energy and FSD and bots, and dojo, there is a good case to sell Ford,Rivian,Lucid,GM and buy Tesla.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Notice the Left/Right Arrow buttons on the wheel to be operated by the left thumb?

View attachment 940910​

You wrote "button". Is it actually a button you press or just an annoying capacitive surface?

 

[bkp_duke]

I think there is still a very strong bull case purely for vehicle sales. The full ramp up of Berlin and Texas is still to come, Semi mass production still to come, Cybertruck is still to come, and the full impact of 4680s is still to come. This is all happening at a time when a Tesla-initiated price war is revealing just how vulnerable all the competitors are in terms of finance. Right now, its ok for them to publish ambitious targets, and claims of future profitability, but until now they have not been really forced to compete on price.

I'm bullish on energy, and bearish on FSD, but I still think Tesla is hugely undervalued. I think the market will re-evaluate things once either Lucid or Rivian collapses, or when they start to see the true impact of the EV transition for Ford/GM.

Most analysts still think of Tesla as a car company, not even an 'auto' company. When Tesla can offer serious quantities of semis and trucks, they will have to re-evaluate their total addressable market. Even ignoring energy and FSD and bots, and dojo, there is a good case to sell Ford,Rivian,Lucid,GM and buy Tesla.

Concur. There is a strong case for more like a 2-3T valuation by 2030. Everyone's mindset has changed because we are in a recession and stocks for the most part are markedly depressed.

And my valuation number didn't even include pie-in-the-sky things like Optimus. I'm not even sure if I have a good idea on how to value something that could replace the bulk of the human labor force. . .

 

[Cosmacelf]

Im not a Cybertruck customer, but TBH the wheel-yoke (woke?) doesnt look too bad to me. I never liked the yoke, I think the model Y wheel is pretty good.
The thing that would bother me is the apparent lack of stalks? Is this 100% confirmed? The cybertruck going stalk-less and trying to *guess* when you will indicate or do other stalk stuff?
The TeslaVision replacement for ultrasonic sensors is worse than useless TBH. I just totally ignore it. It was a step too far in terms of penny-pinching for a premium car.
If future Teslas dont have stalks, I'll be keeping my model Y until it falls to bits. This feels like a step way too far. (USS was bad enough).

The lack of stalks is the least problematic part of the change. You get used to that fairly quickly and now I prefer the thumb left and right signal indicators. The swipe for reverse/forwards isn’t that bad, easy to get used to. It is always at the same spot on the touchscreen which is nice. You get a nice big visual whether the car is in reverse or forward since the rear camera turns on if you are in reverse, so I’ve never gotten confused which direction I’m going.

Just don’t be in a super hurry when you first start the car since you do have to pay attention to the screen, but then you should be paying attention to lots of things when you are starting to drive.

 

[Cosmacelf]

You wrote "button". Is it actually a button you press or just an annoying capacitive surface?

Button you have to press, fairly light, but still a depress.

 

[Bobfitz1]

My wife gets a commute stipend from her employer and charges it at work when she’s there.

She’s supposed to provide documentation for her expenses. I wonder if FSD subscription would qualify?

I could see her using it for her entire drive and I’m certain it would changer her quality of life (granted it’s only 2-3 days / week), it’s one of the worst in the whole Bay Area, sometimes 2 hours each way (Walnut Creek to Mountain View).

I paid 12K for FSD when I bought MYP last year. Last month it was hit from behind while at a light. At Tesla approved collisions center they found rear Gigacasting was shattered by impact so car is total loss. As was the 12K FSD.

For the replacement I did some research into Enhanced AP for $6K. One detail I learned is that if you pay for EAP you can subscribe to full FSD for $99/ month. If you live outside a city, EAP would give you all the FSD capability you'd really need locally. On a long trip you can get the full SD for the trip for $99.

Any speculation on how much they may increase subscription rate once FSD is fully baked?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Funny. Give me a wheel or a yoke … that things looks ridiculous and not functional.

It looks similar to the BMW IX steering wheel. I have test driven that extensively it felt good in the hands. Hopefully the CT will feel similar.

 

[bkp_duke]

Nasdaq up 1.5+% . . . TSLA barely staying green.

Nope, no manipulation here. Nothing to see, move along now folks.

 

[keydiver]

I paid 12K for FSD when I bought MYP last year. Last month it was hit from behind while at a light. At Tesla approved collisions center they found rear Gigacasting was shattered by impact so car is total loss. As was the 12K FSD.

Progressive completely compensated me for what I had paid for EAP.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Nasdaq up 1.5+% . . . TSLA barely staying green.

Nope, no manipulation here. Nothing to see, move along now folks.

But still beating S&P 500 for today, which doesn't seem to get as much love in general compared to Nasdaq - divergent. Long term as well.
TSLA's in the wrong school! Let's get a transfer.

 

[GOVA]

somebody's afraid - the street lit up another my on fire 16 hours ago with detailed movies and descriptions of 'neglected' customer.

 

[FreqFlyer]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661560483155943426

I bet the round wheel we have seen in Highland Model 3 will be an option. Tesla learned from the S/X experiment.

 

[bkp_duke]

somebody's afraid - the street lit up another my on fire 16 hours ago with detailed movies and descriptions of 'neglected' customer.

Would be interesting to know more about what happened. "Noise from the bottom" to me is an indication he may have run over something very hard, and damaged the pack. It's rare, but it does happen (and was the reason for the titanium front protection bracket for the original S).

 

[Thumper]

I've had he yoke for just over a year now. Turn signal "buttons" are easy to become accustomed to. Only tricky on low speed maneuvers. Likewise the yoke requires slight learning to feel comfortable in low speed maneuvers. For all other driving I love the yoke. It has comfortable hand positions and no forward obstruction. One suggestion I would make for Tesla is to ad a small tactile bump on either the right or left turn button, like the home keys on a keyboard.

 

[Nocturnal]

somebody's afraid - the street lit up another my on fire 16 hours ago with detailed movies and descriptions of 'neglected' customer.

Saw that guy on Twitter. His car caught on fire which sucks but he is going crazy tagging POTUS etc. Doesn't seem stable.

 

[Max Plaid]

The lack of stalks is the least problematic part of the change. You get used to that fairly quickly and now I prefer the thumb left and right signal indicators. The swipe for reverse/forwards isn’t that bad, easy to get used to. It is always at the same spot on the touchscreen which is nice. You get a nice big visual whether the car is in reverse or forward since the rear camera turns on if you are in reverse, so I’ve never gotten confused which direction I’m going.

Just don’t be in a super hurry when you first start the car since you do have to pay attention to the screen, but then you should be paying attention to lots of things when you are starting to drive.

I love the stalkless approach, but I struggle with finding the indicator button when the yoke is turned, for instance when existing a roundabout. Here I think Tesla could use the car to help - for instance if you're following a route on the navigation, the car could indicate automatically, the car could surely also sense from your driving, the steering angle, the use of pedals, even your head/eye direction, that you want to make a turn/exit...

Another approach would be to put an indicator button on the touch-screen when there's a junction approaching

Sometimes I really wish Tesla would reach out to owners and listen to their feedback on things like this, I'm sure most of us have a ton of real-world experience that could be used to improve the usability at very little cost