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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Paraphrasing Marshall McLuhan, "It's difficult for an Editor to write a clear and accurate title when his salary depends upon bungling that title."
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Unless a Company is forced to fail by predatory short sellers. Sure, a company can fight all those lies in Court, but will they be alive to fight in 7 years when the case finally comes to trial?
[PDF] Predatory Short Selling - Princeton University › research › papers (Nov 2008)
Well, the original manipulative title did its job to affect algos. Now, nobody cares as it is after trading hours.
FielderJones
Member
As a HODLer, algos mean little to me. I'm in for the long haul.
Um. That's Tesla's generic response to States that have a rule that says, in effect, "If you sell electricity, then you have to be regulated by the Public Utilities Commission. That means any rate changes have to go to the PUC, get published in the newspaper, and, after a vote, get approved. Until the next rate change."I know I’ve seen Superchargers that charge an increasing rate per kWh as you approach full. I think in the car if you click on a Supercharger it will show you if a tiered rate is in effect.
In fact, here’s the nearest one to me, albeit in minutes rather than kWh:
While I don't know for sure, I suspect that these rules were put in place to prevent landlords from charging Really Big Rates on their renters. Which, for that use case, makes a bit of sense. I mean, the landlord has a monopoly, just like most electric utilities do (ever see two different companies power poles on the same street? Didn't think so...), and it's against monopolistic behavior, like Raising Rates to the Moon because, well, one can! that PUCs were invented in the first place.
That doesn't exactly fit Tesla's use case or that of any other public provider of electricity for BEVs. I presume that when it was only Tesla and State Governments were being lobbied by ICE dealerships left and right, then the laws weren't getting changed. Now that every car company and their brother-in-law is in on the act and there's plenty of different public charging infrastructure companies out there, the rules are being changed.
Your graphic is Tesla's work-around for the State idiocy. Tesla charged per minute, with higher rates for higher power, which is a stair-step approximation of simply charging so much per kW-hr of energy consumed. In enlightened States, Tesla simply charged per kW-hr. For example, in 2018, Superchargers in New Jersey had rates like your graphic. Sometime in the last few years the rules got changed; now they charge per kW-hr.
Now, there is a relatively new twist on Tesla's rates in this area and in a few other States up and down the East Coast: Tesla will charge different kW-hr rates depending upon the time of day. One gets cheaper rates at 11 p.m. than at 2 p.m.. I take this as an attempt to make charging Teslas more affordable for apartment dwellers; the rates sometimes vary 2:1 or more, depending upon the charger, the location, and whatever other wild things Tesla has in mind.
Is that really true though? If you can keep a stock suppressed then won't that suppression have a long term impact? It's not like NVDA jumped 30% over night because someone ran the numbers and assigned the correct PE.
Gains build on gains don't they?
While lower supercharger rates during off-peak times has the beneficial effect of making EVs more affordable for apartment dwellers, I don't think that is the only reason.
Tesla can get the most revenue from their supercharger stations by encouraging higher utilization. If they are selling kWh for more hours of the day, that is more revenue from the same investment.
Not only that, Tesla has to pay a monthly demand charge based on the highest kW power usage during the month. Usually this is calculated by the peak kWh used in any 15 minute period during the month. The kWh energy delivered in this 15 minute window is divided by 0.25 hour to get the peak kW for the month. Once 8 cars pull up to an 8-stall station and set the kW demand charge for the month, then the only extra cost for Tesla to charge more cars is the low commercial/industrial kWh energy rate. This makes charging more cars at the same peak or below a real gravy train for supercharger profits (Tesla's stated intent is to roll all profits into building more superchargers, keeping the business revenue neutral).
An example would be perhaps 700 kW peak monthly demand for an 8-stall supercharger. Demand charges vary widely, approximately $15-40 per kW. If Tesla is paying $20/kW, then 700 kW*20 = $14,000 monthly demand charge for that station. Commercial energy rates are usually much lower than residential rates, since the latter don't have demand charges. Rates can be appoximately $0.04-0.12 per kWh. If Tesla pays $0.07/kWh and sells it for $0.43/kWh during peak times, and $0.12/kWh during off-peak, that is the "gravy train" that hopefully adds up to pay the monthly demand charge, and more. The point is the more cars you can charge per month, the more profitable the supercharger station is.
GSP
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Krugerrand
Meow
We’ve had hat eating bets before. It should have ended poorly for the hat last time - or was it socks? Some article of clothing was to be eaten but didn’t happen.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Good point. I remind the Jury of this Marketwatch article published when TSLA ↑ $300: (just before the Q4 slump)
Tesla spent 864 days as Wall Street's biggest short bet. Now it's Apple. | (Sep 15, 2022)
Tesla spent 864 days as Wall Street's biggest short bet. Now it's Apple.
Apple Inc. has recently become the largest short play again by one key metric, overtaking Tesla Inc.
www.marketwatch.com
Carl Raymond
Active Member
The point of truth for the stock is the company. If FSD is suddenly robotaxi ready, it‘s irrelevant what the stock was yesterday, extreme example.
Yep, in your example they need ~22 cars a day, every day, to charge ~50kWh, a charge from ~10% to 70% charges, during peak time just to cover the demand charges. And another ~4 charge per day to cover the energy expense. Once they hit ~800 peak charging session in a month things look up and they can start to make money. (To look at it another way, if you figure an average charge rate of 150kW, you would need ~9 hours of active peak charging per day.)
i.e. you need a lot of utilization to make Superchargers pay for themselves, which is why opening the low utilization sites to CCS vehicles makes sense. (And why other CPOs have smaller sites, you can't incur as high of demand charges with fewer stalls. Or if you artificially limit the maximum output power. Maybe that is why EA has so many 350kW chargers that are limited to 50kW, or less, they can't afford the demand charges.)
Why apple? Are they committing fraud? Because that's the major reason why short sellers think they should exist, which is to uncover fraud.Good point. I remind the Jury of this Marketwatch article published when TSLA ↑ $300: (just before the Q4 slump)
Tesla spent 864 days as Wall Street's biggest short bet. Now it's Apple. | (Sep 15, 2022)
Tesla spent 864 days as Wall Street's biggest short bet. Now it's Apple.
Apple Inc. has recently become the largest short play again by one key metric, overtaking Tesla Inc.
Interesting article on the unboxing manufacturing process.
Includes quotes from several manufacturing and assembly experts, including Cori Steuben from Munto.
www.assemblymag.com
Includes quotes from several manufacturing and assembly experts, including Cori Steuben from Munto.
Tesla Rethinks the Assembly Line
Engineers at Tesla Inc. have developed a new process that they claim will reduce EV production costs by 50 percent, while reducing factory space by 40 percent.
www.assemblymag.com
This is an impressive article.Interesting article on the unboxing manufacturing process.
Includes quotes from several manufacturing and assembly experts, including Cori Steuben from Munto.
Tesla Rethinks the Assembly Line
Engineers at Tesla Inc. have developed a new process that they claim will reduce EV production costs by 50 percent, while reducing factory space by 40 percent.
A hat might be too much, but I'll eat something gross. I do have a whole canned chicken I've been saving for a special occasion...
There are people that put milk or cream in coffee. I would count that as valorous indeed.A hat might be too much, but I'll eat something gross. I do have a whole canned chicken I've been saving for a special occasion...
A hat might be too much, but I'll eat something gross. I do have a whole canned chicken I've been saving for a special occasion...
Youtube video of people trying surstromming
I don't even know what you guys are betting on but I'd like to suggest Surströmming for the loser.
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