Tesla Updated Semi Webpage & Details

[AMPd]

Wow, what in the hell?! What broken promises? Signing up for an agreement to get a quoted price is totally commonplace in MANY industries, and no one bats an eye. Have you gotten cell phone service or internet service? The big numbers on the advertised price are usually only what you get if you sign on for a two year contract or something. That's not unusual and isn't a broken promise; it's pretty much expected. I don't get why you would think this would be some kind of underhanded, dirty dealing, bad faith thing if Tesla were to also do it that same way other companies do.

If they never offer it at all, then yes, that would break the promise, but having that with some kind of commitment would be pretty normal.

I have no idea what the heck you’re talking about but what I’m saying is the promises Elon made regarding the semi, charging cost, range, date of delivery. Granted we don’t know the range or the cost of charging but we know the timeline has been inaccurate so far. We also know Elon said charging at mega chargers would cost 0.07 kWh, he didn’t say anything about having solar or other equipment installed to get that price, and that’s the game I was talking about. Where Tesla fanboys would find a way to weasel out of any promises Elon makes using things like “yeah he promised 0.07 cost per kWh BUT HE NEVER SAID HOW MANY kWh YOU CAN GET AT THAT PRICE! First kWh is 0.07 cents the rest is 0.60”

 

[Rocky_H]

Granted we don’t know the range or the cost of charging but we know the timeline has been inaccurate so far.

Granted. They usually meet specifications, but almost never meet those optimistic schedules. I heartily ding them for that, that Musk is always way out over his skis with announcing really aggressive timelines they always fail to.

We also know Elon said charging at mega chargers would cost 0.07 kWh, he didn’t say anything about having solar or other equipment installed to get that price, and that’s the game I was talking about. Where Tesla fanboys would find a way to weasel out of any promises Elon makes using things like “yeah he promised 0.07 cost per kWh BUT HE NEVER SAID HOW MANY kWh YOU CAN GET AT THAT PRICE! First kWh is 0.07 cents the rest is 0.60”

Wow, you are already accusing them of failure and not delivering and fraud, and we haven't even gotten to chance to see what will happen. (Remember how they are late, so we haven't gotten to find out yet?) I was just pointing out that having some kind of agreement or contract to get an ongoing price would be a really normal thing across a lot of industries.

I'm not making excuses for anything because I haven't heard what they are going to offer yet. When they do, we will see if they have some plan for offering that 7 cents or not. It's not fanboying to say we need to see what happens first before judging it. It's rather the opposite to start off making accusations against them before seeing what they do.

 

[ThomasD]

He also stated at the semi reveal that with convoy technology they could confidently do today would be safer than a human. Musk also states that the semi convoy would be cheaper than rail. Rail is around 71 dollars a ton.

 

[AMPd]

Granted. They usually meet specifications, but almost never meet those optimistic schedules. I heartily ding them for that, that Musk is always way out over his skis with announcing really aggressive timelines they always fail to.

Wow, you are already accusing them of failure and not delivering and fraud, and we haven't even gotten to chance to see what will happen. (Remember how they are late, so we haven't gotten to find out yet?) I was just pointing out that having some kind of agreement or contract to get an ongoing price would be a really normal thing across a lot of industries.

I'm not making excuses for anything because I haven't heard what they are going to offer yet. When they do, we will see if they have some plan for offering that 7 cents or not. It's not fanboying to say we need to see what happens first before judging it. It's rather the opposite to start off making accusations against them before seeing what they do.

I never accused them of fraud, if you’re going to start putting words in my mouth then don’t even bother replying. I hate nothing more in a discussion than what you’re doing.

As far as “we haven’t heard what they are going to offer”, yes we haven’t heard what the actual semi specs are because it hasn’t been released yet.. but what we have heard are promises, and not just promises but deposits taken based on those promises. If a company sees those specs and puts down a deposit, they expect the product to match the advertised specs at the time of order.

Again, the only thing Tesla hasn’t come through on is the delivery dates.

But what I was originally saying is the way Tesla handles its car business is not going to work in the semi truck industry. Elon can’t make wild promises and hope companies are just going to attribute that to good ol’ Elon being Elon when Tesla can’t come through on it. Something he has done many times with the model s.

 

[Rocky_H]

But what I was originally saying is the way Tesla handles its car business is not going to work in the semi truck industry. Elon can’t make wild promises and hope companies are just going to attribute that to good ol’ Elon being Elon when Tesla can’t come through on it.

Tesla's being inept and careless about schedules is going to burn them in the business realm, where they can get away with it in the consumer market right now because demand is so high. A few years ago, a friend was talking to me about a business she was working with, where they are building the homes from shipping containers and were going to set them up with solar panels on top of them. Since she knew I had a Tesla and liked it, she asked if that would be a good idea for a supplier for the solar pane business. I warned her away from that, because I said as a supplier, you cannot count on them being able to meet promised dates, and that can screw over your business if you end up not being able to finish things because of waiting on them.

These trucking companies that are ordering Tesla semis at the moment are vastly large enough that they can afford to take a flier on ordering some which represent a tiny % of their fleet and the disorganization of them being months (or a year or two) later than they expect is something they can handle and deal with. And that can be worth it to them to evaluate if the per mile operating costs have significant savings or not. But for smaller companies, where every truck has to matter, and be in operation, being a year later than they were counting on is too disruptive.

We just took delivery of a Model Y, and my wife was pretty angry at Tesla's bad communication of schedule. We had ordered in January, and they gave us an estimated delivery date in December. For most of this year, that's what we were expecting and heard no different, until a couple of weeks ago, they texted and said, "It's ready right now; finish paying and pick it up." That's an entire quarter earlier than we were expecting and ready for, with no advance notice or communication at all. That's pretty bad too.

 

[DarkandStormy]

He also stated at the semi reveal that with convoy technology they could confidently do today would be safer than a human. Musk also states that the semi convoy would be cheaper than rail. Rail is around 71 dollars a ton.

"it's something we could do today... we're just not going to manufacture the products that could demonstrate it."

Musk likes talking in hypotheticals a lot (for instance, about the Hyperloop). It's usually because what he's saying can't be proven in reality where we all live. Sometimes, things in reality catch up, sometimes not.

 

[Operator64]

"it's something we could do today... we're just not going to manufacture the products that could demonstrate it."

Musk likes talking in hypotheticals a lot (for instance, about the Hyperloop). It's usually because what he's saying can't be proven in reality where we all live. Sometimes, things in reality catch up, sometimes not.

just like statements made on the internet, the statement maker is a true believer in what’s said and it’s not wrong no matter what factual information is provided.

 

[MP3Mike]

Production has started, deliveries starting in December...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578170980283076608

 

[Olle]

Awesome that they start now, super excited to see these and breathe a little cleaner air. Surprised that nobody has discussed the big picture of the timing yet:

Low scale production like semi trucks is easy to set up compared to the mass produced passenger cars. They could have built Semis for customers a while back if they wanted.
The reason for the hold up is that Semi has too high an opportunity cost vs other Tesla products. I posted a comparative price/kWh table here in 2019. As you see in the table, Tesla had an order of magnitude more the revenue per kWh for their existing product mix compared to what Semi would have been. As battery costs go down, the general relationship of finished product revenue per kWh remains, which means that Semi won't make financial sense to produce until battery costs approach 0, with Tesla's current business model.

But the business model is about to change. The real reason to start delivering is that Tesla now believes FSD to be within reach. That will be the profit source, wether sold as software or a transportation service.
A limited number of Semis will be delivered to customers now to collect data for FSD. Until FSD is ready, Semi production will be a trickle.

For the FSD skeptics on this forum who will disregard the idea, let's revisit this thread in a few years and see how it turned out .

 

[Alset Srotom]

Awesome that they start now, super excited to see these and breathe a little cleaner air. Surprised that nobody has discussed the big picture of the timing yet:

Low scale production like semi trucks is easy to set up compared to the mass produced passenger cars. They could have built Semis for customers a while back if they wanted.
The reason for the hold up is that Semi has too high an opportunity cost vs other Tesla products. I posted a comparative price/kWh table here in 2019. As you see in the table, Tesla had an order of magnitude more the revenue per kWh for their existing product mix compared to what Semi would have been. As battery costs go down, the general relationship of finished product revenue per kWh remains, which means that Semi won't make financial sense to produce until battery costs approach 0, with Tesla's current business model.

But the business model is about to change. The real reason to start delivering is that Tesla now believes FSD to be within reach. That will be the profit source, wether sold as software or a transportation service.
A limited number of Semis will be delivered to customers now to collect data for FSD. Until FSD is ready, Semi production will be a trickle.

For the FSD skeptics on this forum who will disregard the idea, let's revisit this thread in a few years and see how it turned out .

Spoken like someone with 0 knowledge of what it takes to manufacture a semi. Do you know how many options and variants you have to be able to produce to satisfy your customer base?

Semi lines are MUCH more complex than car lines.

 

[ThomasD]

Since the stated charge to 70% in 30 minutes would give you 350 miles. How long to 80 or 100% ?

 

[VIKING26]

Do you know how many options and variants you have to be able to produce to satisfy your customer base?

Semi lines are MUCH more complex than car lines.

How many? Not trying to be a troll here, but I assume Tesla, like their car options, will simplify things and have minimal options.

 

[Alset Srotom]

How many? Not trying to be a troll here, but I assume Tesla, like their car options, will simplify things and have minimal options.

Then they will have minimal customers

 

[scottf200]

Related:
"Volvo Trucks will deliver fully electric heavy-duty trucks to Amazon in Germany by year end. "

Volvo will supply 20 heavy-duty electric trucks to Amazon

/PRNewswire/ -- Volvo Trucks will deliver fully electric heavy-duty trucks to Amazon in Germany by year end. The 20 Volvo FH Electric are expected to drive...

www.prnewswire.com

Facts about the Volvo FH Electric

• Battery capacity: 540 kWh
• Output power: 490 kW continuous power
• The range is up to 300 km, but the Volvo FH Electric can cover up to 500 km during a normal workday if a top-up charge is added, for example during the lunch break

Facts about Volvo's range of electric trucks

• Volvo Trucks have a global range of six all electric trucks designed to cover many different transport assignments.
• The Volvo FH, FM and FMX Electric models have a GCW of up to 44 tonnes. Sales are ongoing in Europe and series production started in September 2022.
• Manufacturing of the Volvo FL and FE Electric, for city distribution and refuse handling, started in Europe already in 2019.
• Production of the Volvo VNR Electric for North America began in 2020.

 

[VIKING26]

Then they will have minimal customers

You didn’t answer the question.

 

[Alset Srotom]

You didn’t answer the question.

There is not an answer. The number is almost infinite. Not every customer is just hauling goods...

 

[VIKING26]

There is not an answer. The number is almost infinite. Not every customer is just hauling goods...

Thanks for not answering the question.

I looked up the Kenworth W990. There is only two engine options. All of the other listed items are accessories - accent lights and sun visors. These could be installed aftermarket and not needed for production.

 

[ThomasD]

I think what he means is there are a lot of versions of the KW 900 series. Long wheel base, short wheel base, Different configurations of sleepers. four different engines. You can order any configuration and special order the exact truck and setup you want. How accommodating will Tesla be if you want to extend the wheel base, Convert it to a roll back or Cement mixer. Or hookup a PTO to run items like a boom basket or Crane

 

[VIKING26]

Tesla certainly won’t start with any of that. So like Olle said above, much easier to setup than mass production.

 

[Olle]

Low scale production like semi trucks is easy to set up compared to the mass produced passenger cars. They could have built Semis for customers a while back if they wanted.
The reason for the hold up is that Semi has too high an opportunity cost vs other Tesla products. I posted a comparative price/kWh table here in 2019. As you see in the table, Tesla had an order of magnitude more the revenue per kWh...

Spoken like someone with 0 knowledge of what it takes to manufacture a semi. Do you know how many options and variants you have to be able to produce to satisfy your customer base?

Semi lines are MUCH more complex than car lines.

Spoken like somebody with 0 with infinite knowledge of what it takes to manufacture a semi .

Admittedly I don't build semis, so assume I am wrong and hope to learn something from you now. When I say production of semis is comparatively easy, I base my statement of what I have experienced while working in factory optimization and automated ship to line logistics for automotive. I have visited car and truck factories around the world, (Including Fremont btw) and see a stark difference. Passenger car manufacturing generally has lower margin and higher volume than trucks, forcing more automation and lower components inventory, forcing seamless supply chains with respect to time. That causes enormous complexity.

What is your basis for "Semi lines are MUCH more complex than car lines"? You implied that the number of options and variants be be near infinite. As Viking26 said, Tesla likely won't start off with near infinite numbers.

What else?