Tesla Used Inventory Down 30%?

[Sunshine State]

This is great information. Thank you. Assuming that there are more than 37 Teslas that should be trade ins from across the nation, as an expert, what do you think is going on with the Used Tesla Inventory (on the Tesla site)?

Im sure they are shifting used cars into the loaner fleet, there are loads of model 3’s out there now needing service.

 

[pattymac23]

Portland rocks

@pattymac23 How long was your process from deposit to picking up the car? I have been focusing my search more on my area (FL), but since we cannot see the car in person pre-purchase, I guess it should not matter.

It was about 2 weeks. I was a little skeptical and nervous based on what i've read and just the nature of the process but it was as advertised. I'm not sure if i got lucky or if they have done a good job of improving the process. I was hoping to find a vehicle that was more local but the car i found was such a great deal that i couldn't pass it up. I was told it would be 1 week to ship from California and 2 weeks to ship from Florida. I figure if they have to ship it then where it's shipping from doesn't really matter all that much.

 

[pattymac23]

Portland rocks

i was impressed! it seemed like a quality outfit.

 

[Iceh8r]

Any one notice the cheap inventory of model s is dwindling? I found a perfect 2014 ap1 car in New York and saw it drop down from 33500 all the way to 31500 and then someone bought it from right under me.

Any ideas if there’s a pattern to when inventory gets replenished?

 

[Sunshine State]

Any one notice the cheap inventory of model s is dwindling? I found a perfect 2014 ap1 car in New York and saw it drop down from 33500 all the way to 31500 and then someone bought it from right under me.

Any ideas if there’s a pattern to when inventory gets replenished?

It’s not exactly "right from under" if you watched it work it’s way down long enough to drop 2 grand because prices go up and down, not just down. It’s just a waiting game based on how much you want the car and if someone else wants it more and steps up to the plate as in this case someone else did. Used inventory is updated as soon as the cars have photos taken and are removed if needed in the loaner fleet or receive a deposit. They will never reach zero by waiting it out. Not placing a deposit will either yield someone else buying the car or it may get shifted to the loaner fleet. If you track sales prices many cars are often sold for slightly more than the lowest price ever offered at because someone decides the wait is not worth loosing the car. I was told that there is an algorithm that adjusts the price based on activity and time so a very active car will receive fewer discounts and a car with very little activity will continue to be reduced.

 

[Iceh8r]

The particular one I was watching was poop brown color, so my wife was not on board. I told her if it drops below 31 I must buy. Came close. These are used cars, they will only drop with time in general. Theoretically, the more I wait the cheaper the prices will get because the cars are only getting older. The $35,000 model three should also be pushing their prices down.

I’m just wondering if they dump more inventory at midnight Tuesday or some other pattern we may be made aware of.

It’s not exactly "right from under" if you watched it work it’s way down long enough to drop 2 grand because prices go up and down, not just down. It’s just a waiting game based on how much you want the car and if someone else wants it more and steps up to the plate as in this case someone else did. Used inventory is updated as soon as the cars have photos taken and are removed if needed in the loaner fleet or receive a deposit. They will never reach zero by waiting it out. Not placing a deposit will either yield someone else buying the car or it may get shifted to the loaner fleet. If you track sales prices many cars are often sold for slightly more than the lowest price ever offered at because someone decides the wait is not worth loosing the car. I was told that there is an algorithm that adjusts the price based on activity and time so a very active car will receive fewer discounts and a car with very little activity will continue to be reduced.

 

[Sunshine State]

The particular one I was watching was poop brown color, so my wife was not on board. I told her if it drops below 31 I must buy. Came close. These are used cars, they will only drop with time in general. Theoretically, the more I wait the cheaper the prices will get because the cars are only getting older. The $35,000 model three should also be pushing their prices down.

I’m just wondering if they dump more inventory at midnight Tuesday or some other pattern we may be made aware of.

Cars gets cheaper in time but they also get older. It boils down to whether you want a Tesla or are you going to buy a Tesla. The prices don’t always go down everyday, they also go up and down on the same cars but they eventually comeback down unless someone else buys it first. Six months from now a used Tesla that had a 4/50 CPO warranty may have a 2/100 total CPO warranty but cost 2, 3 or 4k less, but it is also an older car and has less warranty, effectively being more expensive than it was.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Tesla has a deal with Manheim Auctions. Pehaps they gave a bunch of cars that did not sell quickly to be run through the auctions to get a huge influx of $ before the end of the quarter. Never know for sure with Tesla. They play strategy and cash flow close to the vest.

 

[erik_k]

* The following is speculation and supposition...

I too notice that there seem to be fewer Used cars in inventory as compared to a couple months ago and whereas prices seemed to be dropping $1K-$2K per month they seem to have stabilized.

Part of it may be a factor of how many 3-year old lease returns are coming back to Tesla, and how fast they make those available to the Used market.

This chart shows deliveries per quarter. Q4 ‘15 has a bump in deliveries compared to prior and the 2 following quarters. Those would have come back Q3-Q4 2018 and may have generated more Used/CPO inventory in Q1 2019.
3 Charts On Tesla Quarterly Delivery Trends | CleanTechnica

Tesla also had a $900+ Million bond payment due in early March ‘19. For cash management they may have directed all lease returns into the Used pool to sell quickly to raise cash. Someone with a history of getting Service loaners might be able to contribute on that. Does anyone know where Tesla sources their service Loaner cars? It would not surprise me if lease return vehicles entered the Service Loaner pool while also being listed for Used sale or while they might be working on Title paperwork. If that was a normal thing, then to raise cash for the bond payment they could have sold all lease returns asap and offered ICE rentals as Service Loaners instead. The cash from sales would far outweigh the cash to rent ICE cars.

Coming up, Q3 and Q4 ‘16 were at that time record delivery quarters. If the deliveries were backloaded in Q3 (Sept) then those Q3&Q4 ‘16 cars will be coming back over the next few months and we might see overall inventory numbers in Used rise a bit.

I imagine EV-cpo could data mine and provide weekly charts as to # of Used/CPO cars available and it might be interesting to see if/how those relate to delivery volume of 3 years prior to see if there’s a correlation but it really is just a question to ponder idly. It comes down ultimately to there being a specific inventory of cars at any given time, at the prices Tesla has set, and whether someone wants to buy at that price at that time.

Very few investory cars are within free delivery area of Mississippi so I’ve more or less set the expectation to myself that I’ll really be purchasing in June-July because I can arrange for a July delivery on the west coast when I’ll be out there anyway. Then I will have a better selection from the greater inventory on the west coast, can avoid Delivery charges, and either drive it back or trailer it behind the Expedition.

 

[Rogue Synapse]

The size of the Tesla used fleet listed for sale is down by half from its recent peak (highest number of total used I saw in the last few months I've been monitoring closely was 1294, and I'm showing 650 currently). Guessing the machinations behind the used inventory management process is really a crapshoot... the Tesla tea leaves are pretty mysterious. I agree that the loaner fleet is probably increasingly stressed now that Model 3s vastly outnumber all S/X ever sold, but we also know that Tesla plays fast and loose with the loaner fleet and still keeps them listed for sale while they're in use.

I also agree that it seems like too much of a coincidence that a massive bolus of facelift 3-year lease returns is about to come back to roost - that will definitely affect the value of the nosecone fleet, so maybe Tesla's been listing as many of those for sale as possible ahead of this change to maximize the nosecone cars' liquidation value, and now we're seeing the tail end of that surge as the numbers dwindle. Again, more total conjecture, like all of our other opinions about this whole process...

I think for those of us looking for a used Model S who have several months to burn/don't need the car now, it's only going to look better for us later this year.

 

[pnwonderland]

* The following is speculation and supposition...
Very few investory cars are within free delivery area of Mississippi so I’ve more or less set the expectation to myself that I’ll really be purchasing in June-July because I can arrange for a July delivery on the west coast when I’ll be out there anyway. Then I will have a better selection from the greater inventory on the west coast, can avoid Delivery charges, and either drive it back or trailer it behind the Expedition.

Just be wary of use tax - delivery in CA means paying 9.x%+ which makes the $2,000 fee for transport on CPOs a relative bargain and eclipses any savings on new inventory cars if your state doesn't allow you to credit it against their registration fees. I'm in OR and was considering taking delivery in CA, but the tax situation made it a net loss.

I think for those of us looking for a used Model S who have several months to burn/don't need the car now, it's only going to look better for us later this year.

This is my suspicion as well after looking through the '16 Q3 and Q4 earnings. I'd wager facelifted AP1 90Ds will soon trade in the mid-40s

 

[Rogue Synapse]

I'd wager facelifted AP1 90Ds will soon trade in the mid-40s

That would be incredible. I'm not buying until Sep/Oct (when my current lease is up). I'm looking too much for my own good right now. A few times, I've seen what seems like a too-good-to-pass-up deal that I'm tempted to act on, but I have to remember that the deals are only going to get better, not worse. I am not a fan of the nosecone, but the facelifted cars are well outside my budget... hopefully not for long!

 

[erik_k]

Just be wary of use tax - delivery in CA means paying 9.x%+ which makes the $2,000 fee for transport on CPOs a relative bargain and eclipses any savings on new inventory cars if your state doesn't allow you to credit it against their registration fees. I'm in OR and was considering taking delivery in CA, but the tax situation made it a net loss.

Thanks for the reminder. Since we have to pass through Nevada I was thinking of taking delivery in Reno or Las Vegas. I think those delivery centers would be free for any California listed car? That is, could I take delivery in NV without paying a delivery fee or California sales tax even if the car originates in the Bay Area or San Diego?

Does anyone know if it’s possible to take delivery of a Tesla Used California car in Nevada without paying shipping?

 

[PDACPA]

@Rogue Synapse I too have been following EV-CPO for the past month and Model S's are in the 600's here in the USA and when I started was around 1,000. I really want a facelifted one so holding for those April and May 2016 Lease returns, but there are some good deals out there that it might warrant a nose job for one of the classic nosecone!

 

[erik_k]

That would be incredible. I'm not buying until Sep/Oct (when my current lease is up).

I think I’ve read on this site that Tesla starts calling folks 3-6 before their lease is up to line them up with a new lease if desired. Has anyone reached out to you? And for those who have turned in leases to Tesla in the past, do they make you keep and pay though you’re 36th month? Or if they call you at 30 months can you turn in your existing lease vehicle early without penalty if getting a new lease vehicle?

I’m wondering when the Q3 & Q4 leases will actually get returned.

 

[Rogue Synapse]

<=== No, my lease is up on that Mercedes EV.

 

[Pismo]

I think for those of us looking for a used Model S who have several months to burn/don't need the car now, it's only going to look better for us later this year.

This is me right now, and I am torn between the choice of a blk/wh 85D with SAS AP1 etc for around 40k, or the 75/90D w/ facelift AP1 for High 40s/very low 50s.

I just have to believe a mixture of the lease returns, plus maybe, an imminent interior or exterior refresh, makes me just wait for the right Facelift MS.

I am in it for the longer haul (been waiting since Jan, and have till September) and willing to wait, so hopefully I have some answers or direction by Sep.

 

[PDACPA]

No rush here either. And I just saw two cars on teslacpo.io with price drops from 62,900 to 49,700 (one was in a month and the other was two months).

 

[LittlebbJesus]

I think they’re holding back so they can sell the ap1.0

 

[Sunshine State]

Tesla has a deal with Manheim Auctions. Pehaps they gave a bunch of cars that did not sell quickly to be run through the auctions to get a huge influx of $ before the end of the quarter. Never know for sure with Tesla. They play strategy and cash flow close to the vest.

You actually can know for sure because I just looked at the Manheim Tesla sales history and there wasn’t any large number of Teslas run through in the last 6 months. Tesla uses Manheim for services but they don’t run many Tesla cars through auction, they run more non Tesla trade-ins through auction.