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Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by MSullivan, Jul 3, 2016.
It seems strange for this to come out on a holiday weekend.
Tesla vehicle deliveries slip in Q2
Wow, how bias can an article be. Seriously. AP?
"Tesla's shares dropped 3 percent in after-hours trading after the government said it would investigate the crash."
That was on Thursday afternoon. On Friday during regular trading it was back up. The article was released on Saturday after they knew that. WTH.
This is the problem of any company in the high end car market. It is difficult to increase market share when you have a high share already, and the market appears to be down. Thus the $66,000.00 model. BMW/ Mercedes 5/ E class sell more units than the top models. This is Tesla's attempt to grab some of these sales. Can they do this and hold the high end customer?
That article was wildly misinformed, as usual.
The car in transit will always grow as production increases.. In this case, it is the last 4 weeks (~8000 cars). Assume it takes 3 weeks to ship and deliver... then Last 2.5 weeks of cars are still in transit.
What this means is.. Q3, there will be 5000 extra cars delivered. But there will also be 6600 cars in transit for the quarter ( last 3 weeks times 2200 cars / week).
Lets take a peek as to how next quarter looks like.
13 weeks in a quarter.
average of lets say 2100 cars / week
but last 4 weeks again is the ramp up.
13 wks x 2100 cars = 27300 manufactured.
3 wks x 2200 cars = 6600 in delivery
Assume only 10 weeks of car can be delivered..
27300 - 6600 + 5000 (Q2) = 25,700 delivered in the quarter.
Which will be approximately 71% over Q2 2016 or 122% over Q2 2015
Indeed. I don't believe I'd need more than both hands to count the number of mainstream media factually-correct Tesla-related articles published this *year*. It's just awful. And yet, most people, who don't realize that reporters in general are neither editorial geniuses nor anything that resembles subject matter experts, just eat this stuff up as pure unadulterated fact. Why? Because it was published not on the Internet.
With the second half production guidance of 50,000 vehicles, Tesla is on pace to produce around 83,000 cars this year. This is all that really matters.
So they miss Q1 and Q2, yet hit a big number for the second half? I can see Elon's mom taking this position. But I think beating 70,000 would be good at this point. Too many potential buyers waiting for the model 3.
It was bound to happen. There are only so many people who want a car in this price range. And they've probably already sold cars to most of the enthusiastic early adopters who are willing to reach for one.
So Tesla is now in a position where they will have to start to reduce price if they want to increase volume. It's the reason why the introduced the 60. I predict that we're going to see a new top end vehicle - the 100 - and we'll see the rest of the line start to come down in price. And we'll also start to see a bunch of the "higher end" features - the premium interior, seats, fancy wheels, - start to become "included". I also predict that we're going to see some more visual differentiation: something that makes the top-end vehicles more obviously unique to a bystander.
Unless they introduce a fancy new must-have feature. AP 2.0?
Even so. I think that will encourage upgrades more than new buyers.... and so there will be a another CPO for each upgrade sale.
It's all good. There are only so many 100K buyers out there; I hope that they've managed to bring down unit costs enough that they will be able to start to push the more fully equipped cars to the 60-80k buyers. Tesla will be very careful about doing this... but if they're not selling out production, it's really the only next step.
The press release states that demand supports production of 2,400 cars per week, so I'm not sure where you get the impression that demand has softened. Somebody says that every quarter. The fact of the matter is, up until now (and possibly continuing for some time into the future) Tesla has had trouble building cars and getting them into the hands of customers--not finding buyers for them.
Tesla Model S deliveries hit an almost two-year low globally, but Tesla is keeping its cards close to the chest
I'm not sure why they keep overestimating their capabilities as they consistently miss targets. Tesla has proven they cannot keep up with even their own estimates, and its causing analysts to think twice about owning the stock Tesla Motors (TSLA) Analyst Ratings | TipRanks