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Tesla vs Legacy Manufacturers, Who is winning?
- Thread starter MaxPowers
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It’s a marathon, not a sprint. Tesla will own the auto industry in 10 years with innovative and inexpensive EVs. They already have the largest market cap and are starting to make their move with factories going up all over the world, vertical integration, manufacturing and battery innovation, new models being introduced, and 50% growth per year.
Governments across the globe are starting to mandate EVs in the next 10 to 15 years. By that time Tesla will be so far ahead, no one will be able to catch-up. ICE manufacturers still think they have lots of time and EVs are still not accepted by the masses. They will go bankrupt, one by one, when Teslas soon become cheaper than ICE.
ICE manufacturer debt and ongoing losses will finish them. Many see the writing on the wall and claim to be moving to EVs, but all they have today are old tech and expensive slick commercials - some with CGI prototypes trying to fool potential customers while buying time before going broke (again).
Governments across the globe are starting to mandate EVs in the next 10 to 15 years. By that time Tesla will be so far ahead, no one will be able to catch-up. ICE manufacturers still think they have lots of time and EVs are still not accepted by the masses. They will go bankrupt, one by one, when Teslas soon become cheaper than ICE.
ICE manufacturer debt and ongoing losses will finish them. Many see the writing on the wall and claim to be moving to EVs, but all they have today are old tech and expensive slick commercials - some with CGI prototypes trying to fool potential customers while buying time before going broke (again).
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
Not without customer service they won't.
Count me as one of the average consumer who would gladly sacrifice 10-20% performance numbers for the ability to call and get an actual human being if automation can't resolve whatever issue I'm having. Now that everyone (almost... the hell Honda?) is coming to the EV table there will be LOTS of options in the next 2-3 years. Some will miss the mark and some will be close enough to what Tesla is offering that all of this negative pub that Tesla is giving itself will come back to bite them. Hard. The saddest part is that they are 100% in control of their fate and are instead more concerned with profits and whiz-bang features than simply servicing those who put them on the map.
Right now they're reaping the rewards of being the only show in town but that's coming to an end. They'll have to be better (and not just in vehicle specs either) to stay around once there's more options and the consumer is smarter than ever.
CapeOne
Active Member
Most bullish estimates only expect global BEV sales to be around 30% of total new vehicle sales by 2030. That's sales from all companies in the BEV space, not just Tesla. That means around 70% of sales at that time will still be some sort of full or hybrid ICE vehicle and mostly from today's so-called legacy automakers. In the United States, the BEV percentage is expected to be even lower.
Between their EV and ICE offerings, legacy automakers will continue to dominate for quite a while and there is plenty of time for them to transition more and more to BEVs and I certainly wish them all well in doing so as competition and choice is good for the consumer. Tesla needs to get its act together in the areas of quality and customer service to be competitive in the long run.
Between their EV and ICE offerings, legacy automakers will continue to dominate for quite a while and there is plenty of time for them to transition more and more to BEVs and I certainly wish them all well in doing so as competition and choice is good for the consumer. Tesla needs to get its act together in the areas of quality and customer service to be competitive in the long run.
Personally I wouldn't mind if all the legacy manufactures failed. They would be perfectly happy to keep making engine that exhaust toxic chemicals for the next century. The only reason why they are switching to EVs because Tesla is taking over their sales. I would rather have Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, Nio, etc be the next giants.
Tesla don’t seem to be taking advantage of their monopoly in the EV sector as a normal company would. They are constantly lowering the price of their vehicles and making major breakthroughs especially in their batteries.
Tesla don’t seem to be taking advantage of their monopoly in the EV sector as a normal company would. They are constantly lowering the price of their vehicles and making major breakthroughs especially in their batteries.
MXLRplus
Active Member
When other companies see EVs as a profit center, Tesla as they are currently organized is going to see a serious threat.
What is so different about legacy automakers? They make great cars in lots of formats with lots of options.
My current dream car would be the Tesla powertrain installed in the I-Pace HSE body. Less noise/vibration/harshness, more amenities, better materials, more comfort, better visibility, no creaking/squeaking/leaking, better ergonomics and controls.
But the I-Pace EV is no match for the top trim ICE cars in anything but NVH and throttle response where it clobbers the ICE cars.
I like my Tesla, but I do miss things like 360° view and nice seats. And the noise and creaking in the Tesla at 80 mph is not better than a 2020 pickup truck.
What is so different about legacy automakers? They make great cars in lots of formats with lots of options.
My current dream car would be the Tesla powertrain installed in the I-Pace HSE body. Less noise/vibration/harshness, more amenities, better materials, more comfort, better visibility, no creaking/squeaking/leaking, better ergonomics and controls.
But the I-Pace EV is no match for the top trim ICE cars in anything but NVH and throttle response where it clobbers the ICE cars.
I like my Tesla, but I do miss things like 360° view and nice seats. And the noise and creaking in the Tesla at 80 mph is not better than a 2020 pickup truck.
I appreciate @CapeOne’s perspective and we had a good debate on another thread. Both of us have interpreted current information and trends and represent two different possible outcomes for what the future may hold.
Time will tell which manufacturers survive and which ones thrive.
Time will tell which manufacturers survive and which ones thrive.
Battery production is not environmentally friendly. Lithium mining environmental impacts offset the end-user environmental advantages. Also, in areas served by coal fired power plants, the environmental benefit is different.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Sure... but the fools fuel it displaces is >10x worse and sadly walking or biking isn't always an option. The areas served by coal fired power plants are shrinking faster than arctic sea ice.
Well, the flu and cancer are pretty bad but if you had to choose one; one of theme is considerably better than the other.
CapeOne
Active Member
Tesla has shown that there is a market for BEVs but their sales are still only a tiny portion of total vehicle sales. Even if Tesla reaches its 2030 global sales goal, more than 80% of new vehicle sales at that time will still come from other (non-Tesla) automakers and will mostly be full or hybrid ICE vehicles. I think government regulations and incentives are slowly but surely pushing the global move towards EVs (BEVs, PHEVs, etc.) and other alternative fuel vehicles but it will take a while.
GM cuts production at two plants as pandemic squeezes supply chain
Can you say, “Vertical Integration?” Looks like the Legacy Automakers can’t.
Tesla will far exceed 2030 sales goals of 20M cars because they innovate products and manufacturing to reduce the price of EVs below ICE. Model 2 and model 1 will open additional worldwide markets for mass volume sales. Even though governments will ban new ICE sales in the coming decades, customers will choose to make the switch long before that.
Legacy automakers are already on the edge of failing and it won’t take much more of a shift to drive them to bankruptcy once again.
Can you say, “Vertical Integration?” Looks like the Legacy Automakers can’t.
Tesla will far exceed 2030 sales goals of 20M cars because they innovate products and manufacturing to reduce the price of EVs below ICE. Model 2 and model 1 will open additional worldwide markets for mass volume sales. Even though governments will ban new ICE sales in the coming decades, customers will choose to make the switch long before that.
Legacy automakers are already on the edge of failing and it won’t take much more of a shift to drive them to bankruptcy once again.
CapeOne
Active Member
The consumer shift to BEVs won’t be nearly as rapid as you seem to think. Even the most optimistic forecasts only expect BEVs to account for around 30% of total vehicle sales by 2030. The balance will be other EVs (PHEV, HEV, etc.), other alternative fuel vehicles, and full ICE vehicles.
Tesla also won't continue to dominate the BEV segment as much as they do now, especially if they don't get a better handle on things like product quality and customer buying/delivery and service experiences. Tesla seems to be focusing too much on meeting and beating "numbers" instead. As a result, there are plenty of frustrated Tesla customers ready to jump ship and there will be more and more opportunities for them to do so as new and existing automakers roll out or expand their EV product offerings.
Forecasts are worthless especially one that is 10 years out. If you would have asked people in 2019 what the odds are the whole world would have to wear masks to go outside, they would have all said zero to none. The reality is that no one knows what's going to happen in 2030 or even in 2025 but there is a shift to renewable energy and cleaner transportation.
You are right that Tesla needs more service centers.
You are right that Tesla needs more service centers.
Brando
Active Member
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
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