Tesla: We are updating all reservation timelines in the next few days

[ℬête Noire]

I went back to my screenshots from 6/27 and only the first sentence was displayed for me. The additional text showed up for me this week.

I can't find any screenshot but that text definitely was showing up well before this week for others.

I don't seem to have any screenshots of that part of the page saved.

However a quick search here turned up someone mentioning their page said that last week and it was before that, even. It was around the time that Tesla gave a statement that reservation date was still a factor (among others).

The thing is that the arrangement the text and what info shows up on that page is highly variable from account to account. For example you have all those May order accounts that don't give any estimate of delivery window at all. *shrug*

 

[Garlan Garner]

Unless the timeline dates will get me my car earlier than what is currently posted....then what the use of posting any updated timeline - Tesla.

 

[UltralightBeam]

Hmmm. Here's what I have:View attachment 317562

How long did it take for payment and trade in to process?

 

[fallen888]

My order page hasn’t changed.

All I know is I check my order page several times a day knowing I won’t get the car for many months still.

I think I need to chill.
I doubt I’ll stop checking though. It’s a sad addiction I now have.

Same here, and the car is not even for me! It's for my wife and she asks once every couple of months if there's an update. I'm WAY more excited about it than she is.

 

[Runt8]

Maybe I overestimate how many RWD orders they got. Could they be running out? I mean, 11k pre-built cars does not seem like much compared to half of 420k for U.S.-Canada reservations...but they just cut everybody's estimates for RWD to Aug-Oct, which makes it a quicker delivery than AWD, mine is still showing Sep-Nov. Originally, once they opened AWD orders, both RWD and AWD were on the same 3-5 months timeline.

Maybe they were planning on building dual motor versions on most (all?) of the assembly lines, but once they got more data on the AWD/P orders they decided to keep producing RWD on some of the lines. This would necessitate a reduction in initial RWD delivery estimates.

 

[Moderatefan]

Maybe they were planning on building dual motor versions on most (all?) of the assembly lines, but once they got more data on the AWD/P orders they decided to keep producing RWD on some of the lines. This would necessitate a reduction in initial RWD delivery estimates.

I didn't doubt they'd keep producing RWD on some lines. What seems to be happening is remaining RWD orders seem to be not very numerous and overall RWD/AWD/P orders are only enough to keep lines going for 4 months(max estimate for new orders) I.e. we're looking at around 80k non-SR orders out of 200k+ US/Can, with majority waiting for SR or having some other second thoughts.
And probably out of 80k the share of RWD is somewhat small, like 20-30k(with 11k stockpiled before July), so at some locations they assign cars to people who just ordered b/c there is no line for RWD? This kind of feels wrong/scary if that is indeed the case, b/c they need new demand to match production capacity.

 

[M109Rider]

I didn't doubt they'd keep producing RWD on some lines. What seems to be happening is remaining RWD orders seem to be not very numerous and overall RWD/AWD/P orders are only enough to keep lines going for 4 months(max estimate for new orders) I.e. we're looking at around 80k non-SR orders out of 200k+ US/Can, with majority waiting for SR or having some other second thoughts.
And probably out of 80k the share of RWD is somewhat small, like 20-30k(with 11k stockpiled before July), so at some locations they assign cars to people who just ordered b/c there is no line for RWD? This kind of feels wrong/scary if that is indeed the case, b/c they need new demand to match production capacity.

They have no demand issues. They will have trouble filling orders for a long time to come.
They haven’t even started filling Europe’s orders. ....

 

[ChrisH]

They have no demand issues. They will have trouble filling orders for a long time to come.
They haven’t even started filling Europe’s orders. ....

I don’t know how much it costs to send cars overseas but likely a lot more than to send them throughout the U.S. I don’t see why demand would already be drying up but if it is that is somewhat concerning. Hopefully there will be enough 3s on the road to help sell more in the next several months.

I heard about a study that about 40% of people would consider an electric car as their next vehicle. The problem might be that $55,000 is too much for most. $35,000 is about average for a new car but will Tesla ever make the $35,000 version?!

 

[Garlan Garner]

They have no demand issues. They will have trouble filling orders for a long time to come.
They haven’t even started filling Europe’s orders. ....

Trouble? Not sure what you mean.

Trouble to me comes when they don't have any orders to fill.

 

[ChrisH]

Trouble? Not sure what you mean.

Trouble to me comes when they don't have any orders to fill.

Likely a typo

 

[Garlan Garner]

Likely a typo

typo?

 

[Dexterryu]

So what takes precedence then reservation or order date?

Driver A - Reserve 2016, order Jul '18
Driver B - Reserve 2017, order Jun '18

Possibly payment type. Those paying cash or securing their own loans may be more prefered customers to get Tesla some more immediate cash infusion.

 

[ilg]

How long did it take for payment and trade in to process?

That's a good question, but I can't answer it. Nothing has actually been processed, to my knowledge.

For payment, I clicked the "Cash" button (not using Tesla's financing, so it's cash, as far as they know) and for trade-in, I said "No." That didn't take long at all. But that's where it all stopped. And that was over a month ago that I clicked the last button to finish the "delivery profile."

Just yesterday, I got an email from Tesla saying that I still had to complete my profile and listing the steps that still needed to be done. I figured, "Ah, something has shaken loose, they've lost my data and they're back filling." That wouldn't be great, but at least it would be movement and somewhat of an explanation.

Well, I was wrong. I went to my account and everything looks exactly the same as it has for weeks. All steps are completed, no date is displayed, and I'm waiting for them to "reach out."

 

[M109Rider]

Trouble? Not sure what you mean.

Trouble to me comes when they don't have any orders to fill.

Typo. Sorry.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I didn't doubt they'd keep producing RWD on some lines. What seems to be happening is remaining RWD orders seem to be not very numerous and overall RWD/AWD/P orders are only enough to keep lines going for 4 months(max estimate for new orders) I.e. we're looking at around 80k non-SR orders out of 200k+ US/Can, with majority waiting for SR or having some other second thoughts.
And probably out of 80k the share of RWD is somewhat small, like 20-30k(with 11k stockpiled before July), so at some locations they assign cars to people who just ordered b/c there is no line for RWD? This kind of feels wrong/scary if that is indeed the case, b/c they need new demand to match production capacity.

We don't _really_ know where the numbers are. Tesla
- wants to sell cars as quickly as possible
- only has volume production of 1 significant variant right now 3R(LR)
- currently has excessive manual effort in production of the vehicle
- has consistent production numbers below target
- has production limitations in some options
- has delivery capacity limitations
- is in the process of getting a more automated line up to speed, focused on producing the P3D and 3D

Given the financial pressures and various production limitations, that it opened up 3R orders to anybody in the USA doesn't directly imply that it's exhausting demand for the 3R. It could be that it needs to maximize the pool of current orders because it can't meet _specific_ demand. It likely wants to meet the 3R demand as fast as possible because some of it will be upsale based on the $7.5k credit and it has the 3Ds coming.

 

[jbcarioca]

What rational business would not sell the highest margin product in preference to the lower one? I chose P with the extra P precisely to get faster delivery, I hope. OK, the grins count too.

Tesla almost certainly makes ~twice the GM on a loaded P as it does on an LR AWD which already has maybe 15% more GM than does a LR RWD. That suggests they'll do almsot anything to deliver all the Ps and AWDs they can with preference to loaded ones.

 

[Garlan Garner]

What rational business would not sell the highest margin product in preference to the lower one? I chose P with the extra P precisely to get faster delivery, I hope. OK, the grins count too.

Tesla almost certainly makes ~twice the GM on a loaded P as it does on an LR AWD which already has maybe 15% more GM than does a LR RWD. That suggests they'll do almsot anything to deliver all the Ps and AWDs they can with preference to loaded ones.

Tesla made promises as to how they would roll the cars out.

One was....whoever orders first gets their car first - no matter if it was P or not.

NOW they are saying something else.

Its for each individual to determine if that's rational - even though no single individual can do anything about it.

 

[jbcarioca]

Tesla made promises as to how they would roll the cars out.

One was....whoever orders first gets their car first - no matter if it was P or not.

NOW they are saying something else.

Its for each individual to determine if that's rational - even though no single individual can do anything about it.

I do not recall it as so clear. I also was second in line at my Tesla store on March 31, and placed my reservations at 09:02. I was invited to configure some months ago, as have been almost everyone else (I think everyone, but I don't know that for sure). I chose to wait for AWD and P. Now that they've invited everyone to configure i think they've done all that they promised. Now they can optimize for profit without breaking a promise, can they not? After all they still offered first configurations for these cars to the people who were first in line so I did place my order on May 21, within seconds of receiving the email offer to do so. Where is the problem in any of that?

 

[Knightshade]

Tesla made promises as to how they would roll the cars out.

One was....whoever orders first gets their car first - no matter if it was P or not.

Where, specifically, can you cite them saying that?

(or are you confusing reserving with ordering?)

NOW they are saying something else.

Same question.


Because what they're actually saying right now is:

delivery timeframe will be based on reservation date, order date, delivery location and vehicle configuration

Tesla on Twitter

 

[ggies07]

I posted this in another thread, but it seems to apply here. This is from the Q1 report. They have and had a system. Maybe it's all been left behind because they are playing catch up, who knows......

After achieving a production rate of 5,000 per week, we will begin offering new options such as all-wheel-drive and the base model with a standard-sized battery pack.

No where does it say anything about the P version.