Tesla - where are my (HW2) auto rain sensing wipers?

[AnxietyRanger]

ROFL! They were aiming to get in in the December 2016 release too. And that was according to their official statement on their website that they will bring AP2 mostly on par with AP1 by end of December, again 2016, so a year ago. Until it's deployed, it's on par with FSD, flying cars and Mars bound commuter Teslas.

Sure. Tesla did promise a lot of things for December 2016 that aren't here today.

Be that as it may, my latest guesswork is that rain-sensing wipers and possibly some other NN-based features (sign/signal recognition? blind-spot detection?) remain in the works, are being tested in actual cars and could result in releases soon. Others may wait for the new map engine to be possible...

The reality is, whatever the old promises were, clearly they weren't based on current reality, so resetting the expectations as far as analysis goes makes sense.

That does not mean absolving Tesla from missed promises. That debate I think we do enough on other threads.

 

[whitex]

Sure. Tesla did promise a lot of things for December 2016 that aren't here today.

Be that as it may, my latest guesswork is that rain-sensing wipers and possibly some other NN-based features (sign/signal recognition? blind-spot detection?) remain in the works, are being tested in actual cars and could result in releases soon. Others may wait for the new map engine to be possible...

The reality is, whatever the old promises were, clearly they weren't based on current reality, so resetting the expectations as far as analysis goes makes sense.

Ok, to sum up what you just said:

1. Tesla did not deliver auto-sensing wipers as promised, so we must reset expectations to expect maybe they will deliver it in the future (as opposed to the past I guess).
2. They may or may not be working on it right now (they may have given up on auto-wipers given the fact that they removed any mention of it from their website, even though FSD is still featured there)
3. They could possibly maybe release in some soon release, with soon being completely undefined.

Agreed on all points. Elon may also announce tomorrow that he's downloading himself into a supercomputer, which after some beta testing will be duplicated, so that each Tesla and SpaceX, Solar City and Boring Company get their own virtual Elon. All virtual Elons will communicate with each other and physical Elon in real time. Sure, that is also possible (unlikely, but possible given that we don't know how far Elon's human interface investments got, just like we didn't know about the new Roadster). Anything is possible, the question is how likely, and we have no data whatsoever to suggest that other than previous failures.

That does not mean absolving Tesla from missed promises. That debate I think we do enough on other threads.

You misunderstood why I mentioned it. It wasn't to complain, it was simply to illustrate that people thought it was coming soon since over a year ago and they were all wrong every time, which suggest the odds of it being right today. Saying it's coming soon is like a person playing the lottery and saying "I've lost every time so far, so I'm due to win this week, if not, then soon for sure".

 

[AnxietyRanger]

You misunderstood why I mentioned it. It wasn't to complain, it was simply to illustrate that people thought it was coming soon since over a year ago and they were all wrong every time, which suggest the odds of it being right today.

@whitex Perhaps. I can't speak for others, but I personally try to keep taps on when some estimate was made and when it comes to fruition. I don't recall making estimates for the rain sensing before (except I've definitely said they will come), though I gladly will admit Tesla thoroughly took me for a fool with their late 2016 AP2 announcements. I was fooled by Tesla and believed the EAP/FSD announcements.

But back on the analysis of rumors, it seems my personal estimate on interior redesign is timed wrong if it doesn't happen in Q1. It seems it may only come Q2-Q3, we shall see if I was wrong on the timing or wrong entirely. That said, I've gotten some controversial things right too. Will I be right on keeping the fire alive for the HUD?

Let me just remind you guys of a few facts of similar threads by myself - or heavily advocated by myself:

Model X and no nosecone:
Model X mules - is the nose cone gone?

Model X and adaptive spoiler:
Model X mules show signs of a new spoiler?

Drive PX and Model X:
Model X mule(s) show signs of nVidia Tegra X1 Drive PX platform - no rear mirror!

Model X delays and Eds:
Delay in model X launch?

ALL of these were things where many people (even prominent people) on TMC said my theories were not plausible, were never happening etc., "MobilEye is the partner, not Nvidia!" etc. etc.

And all happened.

I still remember the day when adaptive spoiler was first spotted. Kudos to a lot of people here who changed their minds about me on that day. I had been the sole voice saying that, analyzing that for months. And then it came.

That doesn't mean everything I estimate comes to fruition, or that they come to fruition exactly as I estimate (for example AP "1.5" clearly existed but did not ship, and Drive PX came in second gen, not first... Is Model X (or was?) getting an "AP 1.5" before full-autonomous "AP 2.0" suite upgrade?), but it does mean some people do have too closed minds - they aren't entertaining possibilities IMO they realistically should be entertaining. That, I find, is my strength. I seem to be unusually open to seeing these things as possible. I am always surprised how closed so many people are to these possibilities.

Entertain the HUD. Thank you.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

1. Tesla did not deliver auto-sensing wipers as promised, so we must reset expectations to expect maybe they will deliver it in the future (as opposed to the past I guess).
2. They may or may not be working on it right now (they may have given up on auto-wipers given the fact that they removed any mention of it from their website, even though FSD is still featured there)
3. They could possibly maybe release in some soon release, with soon being completely undefine

1. No, I'm simply saying Tesla's past promises on auto-wipers are irrelevant to my current analysis I presented above. I am not basing them on that.

2. I believe they have had several versions on rain-sensing NN already in our cars. I believe this to be factual. This is the biggest reason why I believe Elon Musk this time, @verygreen has reported on their progress.

3. I was not making any estimate on timeline, I don't have enough data, but I would say "very soon" from this tweek would require a Q1/2018 release for the firmware. If not, then this estimate is wrong.

The thing is, you apparently enjoy reading the analysis like the devil reads the bible. It is certainly your prerogative. My goal is to offer what I feel is useful analysis and sometimes by nature of the data it remains vague. That doesn't mean analysis can't point towards a useful direction still, when considered as a totality of the commentary available.

Indeed I would argue, more often than not, the totality of this analysis has been pointing towards a correct direction.

Except of course when we most believed Tesla's AP2 announcement. We were thoroughly bamboozled by Tesla, I admit that.

 

[whitex]

@whitex Perhaps. I can't speak for others, but I personally try to keep taps on when some estimate was made and when it comes to fruition. I don't recall making estimates for the rain sensing before (except I've definitely said they will come), though I gladly will admit Tesla thoroughly took me for a fool with their late 2016 AP2 announcements. I was fooled by Tesla and believed the EAP/FSD announcements.

Given all the stuff that people continuously predict as "coming soon", someone will be right eventually. Of course the definition of soon is extremely vague. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

As for your prediction that auto-wipers will come, can you clarify whether you mean to current AP2.0 HW owners or some future Tesla cars, and whether it will come for free (rather than a paid retrofit) and whether it will come within a typical period of ownership of a car (3 year lease starting with the introduction of AP2)? Or is asking about such details "reading it like the devil" and offending the faith in Elon?

But back on the analysis of rumors, it seems my personal estimate on interior redesign is timed wrong if it doesn't happen in Q1. It seems it may only come Q2-Q3, we shall see if I was wrong on the timing or wrong entirely. That said, I've gotten some controversial things right too. Will I be right on keeping the fire alive for the HUD?[/USER]

I think you nailed it on the head here, you are making predictions based on an "analysis of rumors", which is exactly what this is - no facts involved here.

 

[fren]

PIcked up a set of PIAA Si-Tech Flat Blade wiper blades.......
Also available on Amazon:

PIAA 97045 Si-Tech Silicone Wiper Blade - 18" 450mm (Pack of 1) https://www.amazon.com/dp/B004BT8DJG/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_tai_XgClAb1GKXDWF

View attachment 265885

hi
maybe i ll try , only the 2nd model is shipped to France but witch size should i get ?it goes from 16 to 26 inches
i have a model S facelift 2016
thx,

 

[pinball_player]

8) They're waiting for the singularity. Incidentally, that's also when playlists will be available in the media system.

I already have playlists on the Slacker audio system. I just pay for slacker premium, and create playlists on my phone or the web. Works perfectly.

 

[lunitiks]

What’s it called when a loud and lostile discussion goes on for several posts in a thread like this - not at all concluded - when all of the sudden two posters like the above chimes in and answers something completely unrelated?

It got a kick out of it

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I think you nailed it on the head here, you are making predictions based on an "analysis of rumors", which is exactly what this is - no facts involved here.

I've had this conversation with many people on TMC over the years, but I think my track-record is pretty good. Rumor analysis is always an inexact game and sometimes there are failures. But it is a process, not a project. You keep getting data, analyzing data, rinse and repeat, and over time you hopefully generate useful information. I think I have.

Let me just remind you guys of a few facts of similar threads by myself - or heavily advocated by myself:

Model X and no nosecone:
Model X mules - is the nose cone gone?

Model X and adaptive spoiler:
Model X mules show signs of a new spoiler?

Drive PX and Model X:
Model X mule(s) show signs of nVidia Tegra X1 Drive PX platform - no rear mirror!

Model X delays and Eds:
Delay in model X launch?

ALL of these were things where many people (even prominent people) on TMC said my theories were not plausible, were never happening etc., "MobilEye is the partner, not Nvidia!" etc. etc.

And all happened.

I still remember the day when adaptive spoiler was first spotted. Kudos to a lot of people here who changed their minds about me on that day. I had been the sole voice saying that, analyzing that for months. And then it came.

That doesn't mean everything I estimate comes to fruition, or that they come to fruition exactly as I estimate (for example AP "1.5" clearly existed but did not ship, and Drive PX came in second gen, not first... Is Model X (or was?) getting an "AP 1.5" before full-autonomous "AP 2.0" suite upgrade?), but it does mean some people do have too closed minds - they aren't entertaining possibilities IMO they realistically should be entertaining. That, I find, is my strength. I seem to be unusually open to seeing these things as possible. I am always surprised how closed so many people are to these possibilities.

Entertain the HUD. Thank you.

@ohmman recently said I only talk of Eds, but that's not really true. Nosecone, adaptive spoiler, Drive PX, Model X delays... Will AR HUD be the next success? Or failure?

We shall see.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

What’s it called when a loud and lostile discussion goes on for several posts in a thread like this - not at all concluded - when all of the sudden two posters like the above chimes in and answers something completely unrelated?

It got a kick out of it

I mean, in fairness, the bit about verygreen seeing changes in the NN w/regards to rain detection really answers the question. We may not know when or if they’re coming for sure(it’s impossible to know that for sure until an update adds them) but we do know 100% for sure that they’re being actively worked on. Or at least were as of a month ago or so.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I mean, in fairness, the bit about verygreen seeing changes in the NN w/regards to rain detection really answers the question. We may not know when or if they’re coming for sure(it’s impossible to know that for sure until an update adds them) but we do know 100% for sure that they’re being actively worked on. Or at least were as of a month ago or so.

Indeed. The rain-sensor NNs (and their evolution/maturing according to @verygreen) are the key here. That's why what Elon now says about rain sensing is plausible. That's what I wanted to contribute before I was dragged into irrelevant accusations.

It seems to me that people get tracked into irrelevant sub-threads when challenged by others. Maybe the wisdom there is not to take the bait. I could learn from that.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Sometimes rumors are simply more trusthworthy than the official "factual" word.

See: Autopilot 2 announcement, October 2016.

 

[pinball_player]

What’s it called when a loud and lostile discussion goes on for several posts in a thread like this - not at all concluded - when all of the sudden two posters like the above chimes in and answers something completely unrelated?

It got a kick out of it

Its called some of up do not come here every day, so we see threads that have been around for a while, and see a topic that we can contribute to.

 

[iffatall]

They took it away so they could work on the "if the windsceen is dirty, activate spray" training...

OMG, this would be terrible, and inevitably cause crashes by startling drivers! You are probably kidding, but let's not spread the idea!

 

[AnxietyRanger]

OMG, this would be terrible, and inevitably cause crashes by startling drivers! You are probably kidding, but let's not spread the idea!

Well, frankly a self-driving car must be able to use the sprays. Right? Full self-driving after all...

 

[iffatall]

Well, frankly a self-driving car must be able to use the sprays. Right? Full self-driving after all...

Well, if it is full self driving, a clean windshield is no longer required
It's not going to be able to keep all the sensors clear anyway.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Well, if it is full self driving, a clean windshield is no longer required

Well those same sprays would be needed to keep the front cameras clean. Certainly I can see automated washer sprays coming, assuming Tesla can get AP2 to work on that level.

It's not going to be able to keep all the sensors clear anyway.

That's a different story...

 

[jjh1234]

AP 2.0 window washer:

 

[CK_Stuggi]

They're here, though still in beta. JFYI.

 

[lunitiks]