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Tesla will never stop innovating. Major revisions every 12-18 months.

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Az_Rael, Jan 22, 2017.

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  1. mmd

    mmd Active Member

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    Resale value is a very important factor in car ownership. It is covered plentifully in all the car research sites, and most buyers do care about this. Tesla also understands it very well. That is why, it incorporated the resale value guarantee few years back, which it abandoned recently.
    Elon has also tried to show buyers that Tesla holds resale value better, by tweeting this biased article from Electrek. This was only last September.
    Elon's Tweet on Tesla's retained value | Tesla Motors
     
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  2. GoTslaGo

    GoTslaGo Learning Member

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    Reminds me of a friend who picked up a used BMW 3 series. The window stopped working. Quoted 1.5k to fix. He sold it.
     
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  3. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    I agree.

    I also agree.

    I enjoy debating with you because unlike others here you do so respectfully and rationally.

    I'm not sure there's any easy answers to these questions. I also know I can't be blind and not see the regret a person has after spending big bucks only to find out AP2.0 rolled off the line on the car after his. I can, however, try to ease any regret by using examples to try to change attitudes.

    There's also nothing wrong with holding Tesla's feet to the flame. If there's a better way to bring out innovation rather than right when it's ready I'm all ears.
     
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  4. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    A helpful post, Canuck. I appreciate it. I think it is a good place to leave our disagreements in agreement. :)
     
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  5. David_Cary

    David_Cary Member

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    Anxiety - I have a 2015 70D, AP1. My horrible resale is not bad at all. I personally don't think quarterly changes hurt medium term resale at all. AP2 hurt my resale. 60D hurt it also. But if I where to sell my 2 year old car, the sum of quarterly changes would hurt it.

    But you know what? Tesla's have a floor in value. So base models do very well in depreciation in the US. I got mine for $70k net and I could sell for $55k. That is pretty good. Even $50k is pretty good. I do get that US and EU resale value are very different. In the US, we really really value new cars so used cars are with little. I don't have hard numbers at all - just what my EU friends tell me. Now it might be different at $50k vs $15k vs $5k. Credit availability is a big issue and I suspect it varies between EU countries let alone US vs EU.

    Anyway - what a lot of hand ringing. Very few people sell cars before 2 years. That is 8 rounds of quarterly changes vs 2 years of annual changes. No big deal.

    Now maturity - 5 seat Model X and countergate - are really a different argument. The buzz created by fast changes probably wins out over maturity issues.

    Comparable cars in the next 1-1.5 years? You have been believing the other OEMs (mostly German) who are trying to calm Tesla demand by claiming to be right around the corner with good competition. Good luck with all that - although they may show up in Europe first so we will have different realities. Every EV is delayed. Every EV shows up somewhere first and then nearly a year to make it everywhere. I can't buy a Bolt - can you? We have known the exact details of that car for a year. Let alone the sketchy details about other cars.

    In my market, I suspect I am 3 years from a decent large battery luxury competitor. If you discount the Bolt because it is too skinny and tall, not very pretty or just Chevy in general, I have zero options in the next 24 months. And who is to say after 24 months, there won't be a huge problem with that Audi EV (you do realize that VW has been 1.5 years away from a large battery EV for several years now) .

    Look - I get mad at Tesla all the time. But innovation in a somewhat erratic schedule is not their issue.
     
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  6. scottfl

    scottfl Member

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    Would be interesting to have a yearly Tesla upgrade program akin to the "iPhone forever" program. Pay a (sky high) monthly fee, exchange for a new Tesla each year.
     
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  7. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    #107 AnxietyRanger, Jan 23, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2017
    I am not really in agreement with the fast changes increasing depreciation (haven't really thought it through either), I just wanted it presented accurately in the debate... Mine is more of a concern that constant changes actually cause a perpetual Osborne effect and/or constant customer dissatisfaction that could be avoided by a little more pacing.

    I agree Tesla does the fast changes for the buzz. For the demand lever. But there are downsides. Maturity is one. The psychology of a potential perpetual Osborne effect and buyer's remorse is another. When do you buy when every quarter, sometimes twice a quarter, something new is coming along... yet the delivery of the car takes several months... The psychology can be problematic.

    Nah, I haven't been believing anyone blindly, it is my prediction and analysis. I think it is extremely likely two or three large-battery EVs will be available in 1-1.5 years. Those include the Bolt, of course, in its European guise for me (Open Ampera-E - not available yet) and I expect one or two from the Anglo-German segment to stick to their deadlines, maybe more. Bolt/Ampera-E is not available yet, but in 1-1.5 years I expect it will be. Then there are of course the likes of Renault...

    Anyway, I very readily concede a large-battery EV has been Tesla only until 2016. It will mostly be Tesla only in 2017. But in 2018 I sincerely believe that is changing and actual purchaseable large-battery cars from other manufacturers will be available. It will be fairly easy to see if I was right or wrong then - so we shall see. :)

    I have not gotten mad at Tesla ever, that I recall. Countergate came pretty close. I am here to discuss Tesla, including how their actions are perceived by myself and how I see others perceiving them. There are many issues to discuss, some bigger, some smaller. I think this one could use a wiser approach. You disagree and that's perfectly OK of course, we agree to disagree I'm sure. :)
     
  8. habanero69

    habanero69 I Dont Need Cialis. I Drive an EV.

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    I'm in a 2 year lease. How can you say if you lease you are stuck with outdated car? Sure, go ahead and buy/finance. THe depreciation is even more unpredictable the longer you hold and depending on how much you put down. I could not imagine paying cash for the full car based on how quick it's being improved. Talk about loss.. If you are rich, then none of this is pertinent.
     
  9. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    2 year leases are not normally available, so 3 years is more what I was referring to. Also, it was slightly in jest. The depreciation with very short ownership certainly is massive (whether cash or financing)...

    But the true part of it was, Tesla is making so rapid changes all the time, so having the potential to upgrade any time certainly has some appeal. More so IMO than with most other cars where their upgrade cycle is fairly predictable.

    So, while I really wouldn't say I'd never lease, there is some inkling of truth to it I think for me.
     
  10. JPP

    JPP Active Member

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    I am the unofficial CIO/CTO in my group (...'chief geek'). I am asked all the time what the best (fill in the blank) to buy now (like smartphone, camera, Wifi networking hardware, etc, etc). My stock answer is always: 'next year's model'. Whatever you buy will be faster, cheaper, better, whiter and brighter next week/month/year. You have to freeze the technology and appreciate what you have. I drive a mid-2013 S85. My wife drives a mid 2015 S70D. Are either really 'obsolete"? Even thought I drive a 'dinosaur', I savor every day that I have had an opportunity to drive it. And yes, I still am getting firmware updates, some less meaningful, but all appreciated. All good...
     
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  11. Krugerrand

    Krugerrand Well-Known Member

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    No, that's clearly not the *funny* emoticon. You don't seriously need me to interpret the emoticons that you requested I use to clarify my mood, do you? :rolleyes:

    Model ≡
     
  12. MX458Dave

    MX458Dave Member

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    I like the idea of the yearly upgrade program for Teslas. Imagine if there was also a program that got you into a one year old tesla, upgraded yearly, for a reduced price. That might get a lot of traction.
     
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  13. number12

    number12 Supporting Member

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    You could even commit for X number of years. And pay an upgrade fee or keep your same car for another year at same yearly cost.
     
  14. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #114 EinSV, Jan 23, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2017
    So over the past 12 months, Tesla has introduced, among many other things:

    (1) Model S redesign
    (2) 60 and 75 kWh batteries
    (3) P100D
    (4) Autopilot 2/Full Self Driving Hardware
    (5) S100D
    (6) Glass roof

    Do people really think it would be in the best interest of Tesla, or its customers, to have withheld these features in favor of some artificial timetable?

    I leased my Model S P90D in August. Two days later, the P100D was announced. A couple months later, AP2/FSD was announced, followed by the glass roof. Now the S100D. Did Tesla "do me wrong" by improving its offerings after I leased my car? Of course not.

    If Tesla followed the "standard" automotive model year with new models introduced in September, that would have forced Tesla to hold off on introducing the 60 and 75 kWh batteries and Model S redesign for 4-6 months. And not a single customer would have AP2, the glass roof and S100D until this coming September, about the time the Model 3 is released. How would that possibly benefit Tesla customers?

    Tesla's rapid pace of innovation -- far greater than that of any other car company -- is intimately tied to its freedom to roll out features as they become available, and not be handcuffed by an overly rigid schedule. As customers, we all benefit from this approach by having new features and technology on our cars that are unavailable from any other manufacturer. Insisting that the innovation stop as soon as you buy your car -- or that new technology be held back for some artificial timetable -- seems nonsensical to me.
     
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  15. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    #115 S4WRXTTCS, Jan 23, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2017
    Or they could do something similar to what Cadillac is doing.

    That might be a good idea because in some sense we're already driving fleet cars that we have no real ownership or control over. We're also driving cars on roads that are ridiculous not just in the condition of them, but the other drivers on the road are constantly distracted/drunk/drugged.

    So why not just get rid of all that worry and simply pay a monthly fee?

    Drive any Cadillac, anytime, for $1,500 a month

    Now I'm not sure I'd do it personally because I'm pretty content with the generation jumping like what I do with cell phones (I learned a long time ago how to cope with technology).
     
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  16. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    I see it differently. I don't like not owning something outright unless it's real estate with a mortgage and even that I try to pay off fast. When it comes to a vehicle, I don't want the bank to tell me now much I can drive without a penalty, or how much I have to pay if I want to buy it, and then if I don't buy it, I have have noting at all to show for all the money I have spent over 2 or 3 years. If a business that leases a vehicle, I get it. I don't get individuals leasing vehicles -- that seems like such a waste of money -- but that's just me.

    Same here. I still enjoy every day getting into my vehicle -- the same as when I first got into it nearly three years ago now. I don't always need the latest and greatest when it comes out. I do need to retire young with a large nest egg!
     
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  17. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

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    I just caught myself up on this thread, and I have this to say. My plan has been to replace my sweet-as-sugar early 2014 Model S with a Model 3. However, I may just keep the damn thing to spite all of you and your whining faces. It's a killer car and it's worth every penny I paid for it in 2014. If Tesla wasn't making newer, more advanced cars, it would still be worth what I paid for it, and would still beat out every other car in every other dealership for my dollars. The only reason it has depreciated in value is that the manufacturer has moved forward.

    If you don't like the pace at which Tesla is introducing new features, don't buy. Keep waiting. Just don't tell us about it.
     
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  18. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    Who exactly is whining? Most of the posts I've read is simply about trying to gauge it.
     
  19. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    Your solution appears to be to force some buyers after you to wait 12 -24 months for the next innovation so that you feel better about your purchase.

    Addendum: Ohmann captured my feelings exactly
     
  20. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    You need to read through the threads right after AP came out, then the D, then the facelift, then AP2.0, and you won't need to ask that question. There's so many of them, Elon Musk had to say to them that they are "buying the wrong car". What CEO would say that unless you've been whined to too much? It's like a parent talking to a spoiled child.
     
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