AnxietyRanger said:
If you care about finding a good moment to buy a car that is not obsoleted even before you get it, never buy a Tesla. That seems like solid advice at the moment. I'm not sure that is the best message, but hey who am I to judge.
In my view, this couldn't be more wrong. I bought my car in 2014 before AP hardware was added. After watching AP, D, refresh, AP2.0, etc. I still consider my car to be far, far, superior than any other car by any other automaker. There's absolutely no other car I could have bought when I bought my car that would make me as happy as my car does today. Now, would I have liked to always got the latest and greatest from Tesla when they announced it? Of course! But that's only cemented me more to Tesla! I did get a trade-in quote, but I still love my large frunk 80 amp, free supercharging, "classic" and I couldn't justify the hit I'd take even though I'm at the point now where I'm working to make more money for my kid's inheritance. I have an early reservation for the Model 3 that I will get loaded with all the goodies -- then after I get it the next great thing will come out -- that's life!. But I'll still enjoy it, I'm certain. I like to look forward, not back.
Obviously my comment was not regarding other cars obsoleting a Tesla, but the next upgrade coming from Tesla obsoleting the car for a person who cares about such things.
Again, I got my P85 Classic two weeks after the P85D launch. I have enjoyed it tremendeously. But this is not about me, this is about a group of buyers on the market I consider not insignificant with high-end products.
I'll try one more time this way, you don't have to agree, but I hope you get the idea:
I believe there is a part of the customer-base for any product, let alone a high-end product, that cares about getting the latest version. This is why iPhone queues and sales peak whenever there is a new model. When you buy a new iPhone after its (fairly predictable) launch, you get it in 1 day to maybe up to a couple of weeks, and the next one is roughly a year away. So when you do get your new iPhone, you get to enjoy the latest and the greatest for a significant time. When the next one comes, that is a clear-cut upgrade opportunity - and even if you don't upgrade, you won't feel bad because you had the top dog sufficiently long.
Now, consider the same scenario with a Tesla:
1) Tesla has been pushing out small changes many times a quarter and major changes every quarter for the past year (Q2 facelift, Q3 P100D, Q4 AP2/FUSC, Q1 100D, Q2 HUD?). So instead of one a year like a high-end iPhone, this product changes every couple of months.
2) Tesla's delivery time, due to their quarterly batching as well as the nature of car manufacturing, on the other hand is normally in the range of 2-4 months. Even more internationally. So instead of an iPhone that you get immediately, a custom-order Tesla can actually very likely arrive after the product has already changed once, twice even thrice.
This makes it basically an impossible product to buy, if getting the latest version is an important part of your buying experience. If you live near the factory, you might get it in time, but nowadays almost guaranteed to be outdated 1-2 weeks after delivery at end of quarter. This could lead to the cycle Osborning sales for this audience, who remain constantly hesitant to buy (for example staying longer with their current Tesla than upgrading at a clean, clear update point that more paced, grouped changes would bring).
Now, this of course does not affect all customers at all. It is just one downside IMO of this policy. But for example I might have tried to group P100D, 100D, AP2 and FUSC together, maybe even the facelift. That would have made for a nice P85D/85D/AP1 like buying opportunity and allowed those products to remain the top dog maybe for two-three quarters, leading to increased customer satisfaction. Just to give some example of my thinking.
There is also one additional point to this: the frog in the heating water. With Tesla spreading their changes thin, like that frog not feeling the slow heat eventually consuming them, they are missing some customers. Like
@vandacca I'd argue.
His new Model X might well already be on the way would Tesla have made a P85D/85D/AP1 launch like boiling water splash with their latest upgrades. But when the upgrades come little by little, the water only heating little by little - and you know more little by little is coming next quarters - this diminishes any rush...
Waiting is rewarded - and that's IMO a potential problem sales-wise. There are already several such people on TMC who cancelled their 90D's after the 100D launch and went into a waiting pattern instead, because they don't want the old version, yet the new version has caveats too. And they know something more is on the horizon over the next quarters anyway. Instead they buy nothing for now.