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Tesla will never stop innovating. Major revisions every 12-18 months.

Discussion in 'Tesla, Inc.' started by Az_Rael, Jan 22, 2017.

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  1. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

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    This is clearly directed at me, even though I wasn't directing my comments at you. I do plenty of nice disagreeing around here, and for that matter, nice agreeing. If you thought my comments were "mean," you have had a life surrounded in kindness. I'll say what I tell my kids constantly, which is that nobody likes to hear constant complaining. For most people, empathy is a finite resource. Some have a reserve vastly deeper than others, but complaining incessantly depletes those reserves.

    It was perhaps an overreaction to call people whiners. Personal labels aren't very nice, I agree. Peevish complaining is whining, though. So while some participants aren't whiners, there was some whining occurring here. Better?


    I agree completely that we should remain a civilized bunch. I don't think there's a risk of that changing, unless the user base changes significantly. I also think that we have to be careful when drawing parallels between the political climate and actions here or elsewhere. I see this done a lot these days, and the links are weak at best. If the discussion is political, then yes it can be divisive, but I see no evidence to support any change in attitude here relative to the politics of the day.
     
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  2. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    #142 AnxietyRanger, Jan 24, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2017
    Fair enough on you disagreeing on the concern itself, of course. I will gladly agree to disagree and that's that. And I agree Tesla is doing whatever it is doing and not asking me. :)

    I disagree with there not being changes every 2-3 months recently, though... Pre-2016 I would have agreed with you, but not now.

    Q2 had the facelift, Q3 had P100D, Q4 had AP2 and FUSC, Q1 had 100D, Q2 is likely to have more. And these were just the big things, there were tons of small things of course too like seating changes in Q4 and Q1, glass roof in Q4 and so forth, most of them not grouped together. Plus all the very small things that I would agree would fly under the radar in general (some of these not so insignificant as they included battery changes, but those definitely fly under radar for most).

    Definitely something new popping up multiple times every quarter for the past year and each quarter a big one. There has been very little to no effort in grouping any changes, instead it seems a clear strategy to have product demand levers every quarter. I think it is quite possibly planned/intentional even, not just the pace at which all of these things become ready. I think that kind of constant product level demand lever may have long-term issues as every quarter will risk Osborning the next one.

    I have no problem with people disagreeing with the concern, of course. Just trying to explain my position. For example, had Tesla grouped AP2, P100D and 100D together like they did in 2014 for the P85D, 85D and AP1, that would have been the kind of grouping and pacing that I would found potentially less problematic for keeping up customer demand and satisfaction.

    Would you have disagreed with grouping AP2, P100D and 100D together and launching them as a "pack"?
     
  3. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    @jbcarioca Thank you for that thoughtful and nice comment. I appreciate it and hope it is helpful in general - I'll try my best to pitch in positively and within that sentiment.
     
  4. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Well, I guess one could be excused at reading it that way after this:

    One problem I have with these vague comments is that the readership will quite possible read them more broadly than you mean. So when you shoot me down with a quip like that and then move onto talking about whining, that's the way it looks. Same applies to others, hard to say who you are calling a whiner when you make it brief and generic.

    Just something to consider, maybe. Or maybe not. It is all just conversation on the Internet. :)
     
  5. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

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    You've enjoyed that kind of bantering humor in the past. And I know you can't be shot down so easily!

    The whining comments were well prior to that. I think you're conflating the two.
     
  6. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    This is a very good point and one I DO have pretty big concerns about. Even trying to look up the fuse box layout is already problematic due to numerous revisions, which is craziness.
     
  7. Carl

    Carl Supporting Member

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    #147 Carl, Jan 24, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2017
    @jbcarioca mentioned having a friend who always bought 1 year old luxury cars. That was precisely what I was doing before reserving my first Tesla, because where I live you can buy a loaded Jaguar XJ Sovereign (or, when I became a bit more 'green', a loaded Lexus RX hybrid) which is 12 or 15 months old and has 30,000 km on the counter for literally half of the price of a new one. So why would I buy a new VW Golf for such a price, if I can have a Jaguar XJ or Lexus RX which is as good as new?

    With Tesla, my feeling is mixed :

    (i) I sold my first (new) Tesla after 2.5 years and 60,000 km, and received 66% of the price back (60,000 EUR vs. 90,000 EUR). And that was after Tesla had introduced AP1, the new nose cone, and a ton of smaller ameliorations to the hardware of the car.

    So I have never seen a car depreciate less than my first Tesla, and that was despite the, frankly, mind-blowing novelty of the introduction of AP1 (which, of course, was the reason I traded in my first Tesla).

    So I do think Tesla knows what it is doing in that respect, and there's nothing wrong with its policy; it works given that the depreciation of a Tesla is today less than that of any luxury ICE car.

    (ii) however, for those who think "supercar", the story may be different. You want the fastest production car on earth and are willing to pay 40,000 EUR or so above what other Tesla-buyers would be willing to spend for the same car but without that supercar-acceleration. Let's say two weeks after you get your P90D delivered, it is outdated - there is a P100D. If I am not mistaken, there are now new (inventory) P90D's available at 25% off original price, so obviously that will affect the value of your own P90D by at least that same margin.

    So in respect of "supercar-ness", I could imagine Tesla not upgrading maximum performance for at least a year, to keep the P-owners happy for at least a year!

    Then again, anyone willing to pay for a "P" probably has a big enough heart, and purse, to know he or she is simply giving a private subsidy to "Make Tesla Great"!
     
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  8. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    You need the VIN for ICE too. It specifies configuration, among other things.
     
  9. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    #149 S4WRXTTCS, Jan 24, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2017
    I can't say none of the posts in this thread were, but I didn't feel like there was excessive complaining. It was more about just how true that statement was, and the various reasons for it. We do tend to over analyze things. You're not exactly immune since you've taken spreadsheets to things like the value of free supercharging for your $200K+ stable of Tesla's because you were curious about the real value of it. :)

    Anyways, at any given point someone on this forum someone is complaining about something. In terms of updates it seems to me it's mostly from people who simply had bad timing. It's like someone getting there finger caught in a door jam. It's understandable why they feel the way they do, but it usually subsides. Most of the people who had their car for even 6 months seemed to be pretty content. Like when AP2 came out I wasn't bummed that I was outdated, but I was a little alarmed by the unattainable delivery dates on the EAB SW. Of course when Tesla didn't make it people with AP2 weren't so happy about it. So it seemed like a lot of avoidable drama on both sides.

    What I think is kinda fascinating about this place is seeing how people of different economic situations view various topics. Like the right to repair, cost of repair, service fee's, cost of insurance, right to own, etc. All the things that will impact resale value down the road. Things that a used car buyer might care more about than AP1 versus AP2 that this forum tends to obsess about.

    The other thing that's kinda funny is we wouldn't even be having this discussion if Tesla waited to release HW2 when AP2 was equivalent to AP1. We'd still be driving around with AP1 wondering when the AP2 would finally land. So it would be a lot less exciting, but a lot closer to what one experiences with MB, BMW, Audi, etc.
     
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  10. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Fair enough, my apologies for misunderstanding.
     
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  11. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

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    Oh, I'm the first to admit that I'm nuts when it comes to that kind of thing. You should see some of the trailer consumption analysis I've done at home that I've kept off of TMC. Likewise with trip planning. Though, my free supercharging analysis was truly not related to my own utilization. It was more for the people who seemed to be struggling with the decision. I wanted to point out how many miles one would really need to drive to make the value proposition worthwhile. Plus, it's too much fun to calculate, and I can't help myself. I frequently have 10 or more working spreadsheets open on my laptop at any given time. :)
     
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  12. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    Maybe this helps: Consider you putting on the number cruncher hat and doing your over the top trip planning. I think most of the nerdy (in a good way) engineers here can appreciate that.

    Now consider someone else putting on their armchair behavioral scientiest hat and doing the same regarding, say - completely fictional examples - Supercharger usage patterns or EV purchase decision processes...

    Maybe that helps put some topics into perspective.

    Much fewer people are interested in the meta and soft conversations, though, than are interested in calculating range and consumption. Former are also more often misunderstood than latter. I think that explains some of the reactions.
     
  13. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    Agreed. There are certainly appealing design changes made at model upgrades by traditional manufacturers.
    The good thing about Tesla cars is that are still rare enought that to the general public the all look like new models:)
     
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  14. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT ⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️

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    They can't give predictions otherwise people would never buy.
     
  15. number12

    number12 Supporting Member

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    Not what I meant, BUT every other car manufacture does it - they just have to do end of year/fair discounts.

    (Tesla is not like everyone else though)
     
  16. Canuck

    Canuck Well-Known Member

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    #156 Canuck, Jan 24, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2017
    In my view, this couldn't be more wrong. I bought my car in 2014 before AP hardware was added. After watching AP, D, refresh, AP2.0, etc. I still consider my car to be far, far, superior than any other car by any other automaker. There's absolutely no other car I could have bought when I bought my car that would make me as happy as my car does today. Now, would I have liked to always got the latest and greatest from Tesla when they announced it? Of course! But that's only cemented me more to Tesla! I did get a trade-in quote, but I still love my large frunk 80 amp, free supercharging, "classic" and I couldn't justify the hit I'd take even though I'm at the point now where I'm working to make more money for my kid's inheritance. I have an early reservation for the Model 3 that I will get loaded with all the goodies -- then after I get it the next great thing will come out -- that's life!. But I'll still enjoy it, I'm certain. I like to look forward, not back.

    No one can ever maintain a "be-happy outlook on life" all the time. We're born to rot and die. That's pretty harsh. I don't believe in an afterlife -- that makes no sense to me. That little fruit fly has the life force just like us. We go to heaven but he doesn't? Or maybe he goes to fruit fly heaven? It's absurd to me to think we live on after our body dies. In my view, we don't have a body, we are a body. So it's very easy to have a bad attitude in this bizarre world. But years ago I read a book called "Awaken the Giant Within" by Tony Robbins. Yes, he irritates me too -- but he offers some great advice about how we constantly talk to ourselves all day long -- and how in doing so we create our own realities. If we simply change how we talk to ourselves, we can change our reality. He also said something to the effect of: It's in our moments of decision that our final destiny is shaped. I actually quit my job after reading that book (since I was miserable as an associate at a large law firm) hung out my shingle and, as they say, the rest is history. I now have lawyers and legal assistants working for me. It wasn't easy by any means and I worked for 10 years without a holiday while building my firm while my wife would go back to New Zealand to visit her family with our kids. But nothing worth having comes easy, at least for me.

    So long story short, when AP came out shortly after I bought my car I told myself: I got exactly what I paid for, I still love my car, and good for all those who got it -- many not even expecting it! It was either that or join all the whiners here in that long thread. Instead, I posted my view telling people that they create their own reality and I explained how they would be just fine if no one got it (the kid at school who can't enjoy his one cookie if the kid next to him has two) and so on. As someone who also missed out, it was hard for them to bark back at me.

    Life's far too short to have a bad attitude and before my body rots away on me I'm going to at least give it my best effort to fully enjoy that wonderful spark of life we've all be given!

    Haha @ohmman! Imagine that, someone who thinks you do not disagree nicely! Didn't I give you heck for always disagreeing so nicely and I told you to grow a backbone or something like that? Now look at you calling everyone here whiners! That post surprised me too and I even jumped in to try to help you out -- so you can calm down on growing that backbone... we can all see it now... ;)
     
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  17. AnxietyRanger

    AnxietyRanger Well-Known Member

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    #157 AnxietyRanger, Jan 24, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2017
    Obviously my comment was not regarding other cars obsoleting a Tesla, but the next upgrade coming from Tesla obsoleting the car for a person who cares about such things.

    Again, I got my P85 Classic two weeks after the P85D launch. I have enjoyed it tremendeously. But this is not about me, this is about a group of buyers on the market I consider not insignificant with high-end products.

    I'll try one more time this way, you don't have to agree, but I hope you get the idea:

    I believe there is a part of the customer-base for any product, let alone a high-end product, that cares about getting the latest version. This is why iPhone queues and sales peak whenever there is a new model. When you buy a new iPhone after its (fairly predictable) launch, you get it in 1 day to maybe up to a couple of weeks, and the next one is roughly a year away. So when you do get your new iPhone, you get to enjoy the latest and the greatest for a significant time. When the next one comes, that is a clear-cut upgrade opportunity - and even if you don't upgrade, you won't feel bad because you had the top dog sufficiently long.

    Now, consider the same scenario with a Tesla:

    1) Tesla has been pushing out small changes many times a quarter and major changes every quarter for the past year (Q2 facelift, Q3 P100D, Q4 AP2/FUSC, Q1 100D, Q2 HUD?). So instead of one a year like a high-end iPhone, this product changes every couple of months.

    2) Tesla's delivery time, due to their quarterly batching as well as the nature of car manufacturing, on the other hand is normally in the range of 2-4 months. Even more internationally. So instead of an iPhone that you get immediately, a custom-order Tesla can actually very likely arrive after the product has already changed once, twice even thrice.

    This makes it basically an impossible product to buy, if getting the latest version is an important part of your buying experience. If you live near the factory, you might get it in time, but nowadays almost guaranteed to be outdated 1-2 weeks after delivery at end of quarter. This could lead to the cycle Osborning sales for this audience, who remain constantly hesitant to buy (for example staying longer with their current Tesla than upgrading at a clean, clear update point that more paced, grouped changes would bring).

    Now, this of course does not affect all customers at all. It is just one downside IMO of this policy. But for example I might have tried to group P100D, 100D, AP2 and FUSC together, maybe even the facelift. That would have made for a nice P85D/85D/AP1 like buying opportunity and allowed those products to remain the top dog maybe for two-three quarters, leading to increased customer satisfaction. Just to give some example of my thinking.

    There is also one additional point to this: the frog in the heating water. With Tesla spreading their changes thin, like that frog not feeling the slow heat eventually consuming them, they are missing some customers. Like @vandacca I'd argue. :) His new Model X might well already be on the way would Tesla have made a P85D/85D/AP1 launch like boiling water splash with their latest upgrades. But when the upgrades come little by little, the water only heating little by little - and you know more little by little is coming next quarters - this diminishes any rush...

    Waiting is rewarded - and that's IMO a potential problem sales-wise. There are already several such people on TMC who cancelled their 90D's after the 100D launch and went into a waiting pattern instead, because they don't want the old version, yet the new version has caveats too. And they know something more is on the horizon over the next quarters anyway. Instead they buy nothing for now.
     
  18. TexasTeslaRacing

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    Are any of you feeling an announcement will be made in the next 30 days about performance enhancements for the MS & MX? These usually occur near or at end of Q3, however, the Model 3 may have changed the cycle.
     

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