Tesla's Autopilot/FSD demonstration video - request TMC reality check

[adam0785]

I do not own Tesla, I am a long term on fence-sitter - if I buy LR AWD (the config I want) it would be most expensive car I have ever purchased by more than tenfolds, so I am taking my time ---- I did test drove a Model 3 LR at the Tyson's Corner location several months ago but did not try AP/FSD feature -but it is quick as everyone says!

I wanted to get feedback from the community in regards to the M3 AP/FSD demonstrations video on the Youtube entitled "Full Self-Driving" (

)

I watch the video and I was really impressed, but it did not seem to align with what people on this forum have reported - and in some way did not make sense with the AP/FSD pricing trends

1) Those of you who have AP/FSD, what do you think the probability your car could complete the route demonstrated in the video like they displayed?

2) Tesla stated on 4/22/19 that all cars built now have the hardware necessary to complete the FSD as demonstrated in the Youtube, so if I buy I need to make sure to get manufactured after 4/22/19? and why are not inventory models with older hardware not discounted? I understand they will replace the computer, maybe will damage interior trim pieces like reported here so discount seem fair?

3) The demonstration video on the Youtube is very impressive, and my understanding is that they are displaying what AP/FSD system can really do - but why not allow current Tesla owners to use this version because what you have now is BETA version and not safe like this one? What current owners have now has bugs, that one maybe has bugs too but seeming not

Sorry for the many question, but Tesla sometimes is not clear. I really want to buy, but from this great forum I have the information to understand that I must be very careful about what Model 3 to buy because each month can be different. Even after much study I do not fully understand difference between AP, EAP, FSD, summoning, advanced summoning, navigations on AP, navigations on AP without confirmation, and this brings me shame because I am biggest Tesla fan.

Also this community teach me to always reject the damaged paint job!

Thank you all, and Garland Garner too with nice picture profile!

**I edit to include question I forgot: How can Tesla increase price of AP/FSD in May for customers with old hardware without installing new hardware?

 

[Tam]

...
1) Those of you who have AP/FSD, what do you think the probability your car could complete the route demonstrated in the video like they displayed?...

Currently: Zero.

There have been still been crashes, injuries, and fatalities.

....so if I buy I need to make sure to get manufactured after 4/22/19?...

Yes.

...why are not inventory models with older hardware not discounted?...

The nature of "inventory" means its price is lower than new order. The nature of "lower" means discount.

...I understand they will replace the computer, maybe will damage interior trim pieces like reported here so discount seem fair?...

Owners have been accessing to the location of the computer already since HW2, HW2.5 and recently HW3. None has reported of any problems with cosmetic damage due to accessing it.

...why not allow current Tesla owners to use this version because what you have now is BETA version and not safe like this one?...

Tesla has to judge the risk level before releasing its beta version to the public.

First, it would be tried by the developer.

When it's safe enough, it's tested by Tesla test employees (who don't have to work in Autopilot department)

When that's safe enough, it's released to Tesla Owners who enrolled in Early Acess Program.

when that's safe enough, it's released to general public owners.

Most of the time, a demo is built specifically for a demo and not suitable for general public use.

...AP, EAP, FSD, summoning, advanced summoning, navigations on AP, navigations on AP without confirmation...

Original AP is 2014-2016 AP1 that has 1 camera and does pretty much all the functions:

1) AutoSteering
2) TACC=smart/adaptive cruise
3) Auto Lane Change with manual signaling
4) AutoPark
5) Summon within a short distance using sonars
6) Speed sign recognition

New AP since 2/28/2019 is reclassified to possess only first 2 functions above.

EAP is 2016-2019 AP2 & AP2.5 that have 8 cameras and can do the first 5 functions above. It still cannot do #6 yet.

It can do with improved function:

3) Auto Lane Change with automatic signaling. Driver needs not to do anything.

5) Advanced Summon with 150 feet using 8 cameras.

FSD is now reclassified as EAP function # 3 above through 8 below

7) Traffic lights and stop signs automatic compliance
8) Automatic driving on city streets.

...increase price of AP/FSD in May for customers with old hardware without installing new hardware?

I give up on Tesla's pricing. Very confusing!

Psychologically, you want to give a deadline so people think they have to act now in order to get a bargain.

Customers with old hardware do not need to buy new one if they feel fine with those functions from 1 through 6 above.

However, if they didn't pay for FSD for function 7 & 8, Tesla can upgrade those old hardware 2.0 and 2.5 to HW3 for a fee. That fee has been changing quite a few times in the past few weeks too.

 

[banned-66611]

Morgan Stanley have confirmed that that the video is fake. When they had a 20 minute test drive the driver had to take over when it missed an exit, and it was on a pre-planned route.

We have no way of knowing how many attempts it took to make that video, and of course it's in perfect conditions with little traffic and good weather.

 

[kengchang]

Morgan Stanley have confirmed that that the video is fake. When they had a 20 minute test drive the driver had to take over when it missed an exit, and it was on a pre-planned route.

We have no way of knowing how many attempts it took to make that video, and of course it's in perfect conditions with little traffic and good weather.

Lol, calling it fake is a bit pre-mature. It's not that reliable yet. If it's already reliable enough, it would be released already

 

[untilcomplete]

Morgan Stanley have confirmed that that the video is fake. When they had a 20 minute test drive the driver had to take over when it missed an exit, and it was on a pre-planned route.

We have no way of knowing how many attempts it took to make that video, and of course it's in perfect conditions with little traffic and good weather.

Morgan Stanley did not confirm it was fake. In fact, they praised the test drive. Seeing your previous post, I would take everything you type with a grain of salt.

 

[banned-66611]

Morgan Stanley confirmed that the car disengaged on the test drive, and that they were not able to select an arbitrary route.

In other words Tesla just ran the test over and over until it worked and released the video.

 

[compu85]

So.... Tesla trained the latest version of their neural network with loads of data about a small area for a demo. And the problem with this is.... what? As more cars drive they feed information back to Tesla, which is used to improve the neural networks. The FSD neural nets are still fairly new. As others noted, if they were ready for general consumption, Tesla would be releasing them.

-J

 

[Az_Rael]

I wanted to get feedback from the community in regards to the M3 AP/FSD demonstrations video on the Youtube entitled "Full Self-Driving"

Speaking as someone who saw a very similar video from Tesla in 2016, I would not purchase any Tesla option solely based on their marketing videos. You should only buy what the car can do today. Eventually Tesla may improve AP to this level, but timelines are never garunteed. I purchased FSD in Dec 2017 and haven’t seen a single feature release yet. Others purchased the option in Oct 2016 based on the first video, and have also not seen a single feature yet. (Tesla redefined what was in the package, so FSD today is not FSD from 2016)

Today, basic AP is semi-decent at following traffic speeds, It has a lot of phantom braking. It is very good at lane keeping, except at lane merges and splits. Auto lane change works well, but needs a nice open spot to change into. Your experiences with Navigate on Autopilot will vary widely based on how traffic in your area behaves. In stop and go or fast moving dense traffic, it tends to be too conservative to be able to make lane changes. Stoplight detection currently only exists as a backup safety feature when using autopilot on city streets, not an active driving aid. Autopilot is currently not recommended for use on city streets, but Tesla does allow its use there, consider that to be “off-label” currently.

You should really test drive what Tesla is now calling FSD. See how you like it currently. Yes, Tesla updates, but each update introduces new bugs as well as new features. Sometimes an upgrade regresses the experience as has happened lately with phantom braking. Most new major features release in a pretty raw state and it takes Tesla a while to refine them.

If you are stretching your budget for a 3, make sure you love the car and features that you drive off the lot. Then any improvements Tesla makes over time are all just gravy.

 

[J1mbo]

Morgan Stanley have confirmed that that the video is fake. When they had a 20 minute test drive the driver had to take over when it missed an exit, and it was on a pre-planned route.

We have no way of knowing how many attempts it took to make that video, and of course it's in perfect conditions with little traffic and good weather.

Errr... wut?

This is one of *many* test drives taken that day.

Do you want to bet that every single one was the same as the one Morgan Stanley experienced...?

 

[M109Rider]

I do not own Tesla, I am a long term on fence-sitter - if I buy LR AWD (the config I want) it would be most expensive car I have ever purchased by more than tenfolds, so I am taking my time ---- I did test drove a Model 3 LR at the Tyson's Corner location several months ago but did not try AP/FSD feature -but it is quick as everyone says!

I wanted to get feedback from the community in regards to the M3 AP/FSD demonstrations video on the Youtube entitled "Full Self-Driving" (

)

I watch the video and I was really impressed, but it did not seem to align with what people on this forum have reported - and in some way did not make sense with the AP/FSD pricing trends

1) Those of you who have AP/FSD, what do you think the probability your car could complete the route demonstrated in the video like they displayed?

2) Tesla stated on 4/22/19 that all cars built now have the hardware necessary to complete the FSD as demonstrated in the Youtube, so if I buy I need to make sure to get manufactured after 4/22/19? and why are not inventory models with older hardware not discounted? I understand they will replace the computer, maybe will damage interior trim pieces like reported here so discount seem fair?

3) The demonstration video on the Youtube is very impressive, and my understanding is that they are displaying what AP/FSD system can really do - but why not allow current Tesla owners to use this version because what you have now is BETA version and not safe like this one? What current owners have now has bugs, that one maybe has bugs too but seeming not

Sorry for the many question, but Tesla sometimes is not clear. I really want to buy, but from this great forum I have the information to understand that I must be very careful about what Model 3 to buy because each month can be different. Even after much study I do not fully understand difference between AP, EAP, FSD, summoning, advanced summoning, navigations on AP, navigations on AP without confirmation, and this brings me shame because I am biggest Tesla fan.

Also this community teach me to always reject the damaged paint job!

Thank you all, and Garland Garner too with nice picture profile!

**I edit to include question I forgot: How can Tesla increase price of AP/FSD in May for customers with old hardware without installing new hardware?

I lurked for sometime before deciding myself.
You seem to be emotionally invested already, and have done a lot of research.
Based on what I’ve seen here, and my personal experience in following a similar process, you’re going to love this car more than you think, and realize how much you would have regretted not getting the car.
Even without FSD, the above applies.
Adding it in, makes it even more amazing.

 

[outdoors]

@adam0785

I have a friend. Similar in situations. Toyota Corolla bought used. Now has over 350k in miles. Worth maybe nothing as a sale, but to him a workable car. He said. "I want the car to be able to drive me to work and back. Literally get in and out at the doorstep of each location." Money set aside. Ready to buy. I just said it will be a long time coming before you can get what you the Tesla to be able to do. So buy it now, and enjoy. Come along for the ride while we travel down the world of AP/FSD together.

1. No way no how.

2. Inventory car in normal car world means. Floor model/showroom test drive car/ on lot long time. Install of computer has nothing to do with discount. No damage would occur. Sometimes trim pieces have been bent or damaged on install of screens in Models S&X. A good inspection on any work done that is visible is warranted.

3. They can't release. Oh trust me they would want to, just not there yet for so many reasons.

Rejecting a car with issues is thought to be the way Tesla would learn to make a more quality product. I agree to a point. I think if an issue is found one should give Tesla the opportunity to remedy the situation. Some issues are permanent, and fixes could change the value of the product provided to the customer. Yet strong arm tactics surrounding tax credit cut off times are heard about here and there. Those irk me a bit, yet find them not to be representative of the whole body of work. Being fair and reasonable often gets you the same result the other way around.

**Edit question you added**If you paid for FSD and you don't have the new FSD HW3 computer Tesla has said they will install it in your car. I don't think we have seen any official announcement about when that will start to happen.


My side note. I bought my Tesla's for the fact that they are EV's, and fit perfectly within my use case. The future autonomy aspect was secondary or maybe lower. More of the cherry on the top. More and more people that don't own Tesla's talk to me now about how the car updates, and continually improves. Before it was range discussions and the anxiety surrounding it.

Ready to get off that fence?

Good luck in your decision process.

 

[ecarfan]

Sorry for the many question, but Tesla sometimes is not clear. I really want to buy, but from this great forum I have the information to understand that I must be very careful about what Model 3 to buy because each month can be different. Even after much study I do not fully understand difference between AP, EAP, FSD, summoning, advanced summoning, navigations on AP, navigations on AP without confirmation, and this brings me shame because I am biggest Tesla fan.

If you want to buy a car that can drive fully autonomously right now, such a car does not exist.

If you want to buy a car that has a high probability of being fully autonomously in the “near future”, buy a Tesla and pay for the FSDC option. It will happen. When I cannot say.

But what you should do is make your purchase decision based on what the car does right now. The video you reference shows software that is not released yet. Ignore it. Go take a test drive in a Tesla, then make your decision.

 

[ucmndd]

Tesla convinced me to buy in late 2016 with an eerily similar video that turned out to be almost complete BS.

Have we advanced since then? Certainly. Do I “trust” the video released this week as an accurate indicator of the current state of Tesla’s technology? Not a chance.

That said, I love the car, it’s my dream car. But if your primary motivation for purchase is the promise of autonomy, you are guaranteed to be disappointed. Good thing there are lots of other reasons to buy a Tesla.

 

[ewoodrick]

I do not own Tesla, I am a long term on fence-sitter - if I buy LR AWD (the config I want) it would be most expensive car I have ever purchased by more than tenfolds, so I am taking my time ---- I did test drove a Model 3 LR at the Tyson's Corner location several months ago but did not try AP/FSD feature -but it is quick as everyone says!

**I edit to include question I forgot: How can Tesla increase price of AP/FSD in May for customers with old hardware without installing new hardware?

If you haven't ever bought a car for over $5,000, a $50,000 car may not be the best place to start. That's a LOT of debt load to take on at once.

All of the Model 3s can be upgraded to FSD, so there is effectively no differences between an older and newer car in the respect.
The video that you saw, while current day, is for features to be released in the future. Don't even think about buying the car because of what it can do, only make the investment based on what it does today.

You may want to look a some of the other cheaper EVs on the market today, such as the Leaf as a stepping stone. It's still significantly more than your indicated max $5,000 purchase, but nowhere near as high as the Model 3 LR AWD. And the Leaf, when maxed out, has many of the features of the Tesla such as TACC and lane following.

 

[M109Rider]

If you haven't ever bought a car for over $5,000, a $50,000 car may not be the best place to start. That's a LOT of debt load to take on at once.

All of the Model 3s can be upgraded to FSD, so there is effectively no differences between an older and newer car in the respect.
The video that you saw, while current day, is for features to be released in the future. Don't even think about buying the car because of what it can do, only make the investment based on what it does today.

You may want to look a some of the other cheaper EVs on the market today, such as the Leaf as a stepping stone. It's still significantly more than your indicated max $5,000 purchase, but nowhere near as high as the Model 3 LR AWD. And the Leaf, when maxed out, has many of the features of the Tesla such as TACC and lane following.

The problem with the leaf, is that their battery management system is less than ideal.
I personally would not trust the longevity of their batteries.
Otherwise, I agree with your post.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Every feature on every car ever made is less than ideal.

Need to be realistic guys.

Many of the worlds finest drivers have gotten into accidents, some even fatal.

I bought my X a couple years ago, and the Autopilot is much better now than when I made the purchase.

I have had 26,000 miles of great enjoyment driving (much of it on autopilot) over the past 2 years.

Good idea is to buy a car when you need one, and pick out the one best suited to your needs. Does not need to be perfect in every way.

Tesla...it drives like no other.

 

[Glamisduner]

The problem with the leaf, is that their battery management system is less than ideal.
I personally would not trust the longevity of their batteries.
Otherwise, I agree with your post.

Maybe a bolt or kona, but then why not just get a SR+ model 3...

 

[M109Rider]

Maybe a bolt or kona, but then why not just get a SR+ model 3...

I agree.
I would stick with Tesla. They have a comparable priced model now.
Far better car.

 

[Runebane]

If you haven't ever bought a car for over $5,000, a $50,000 car may not be the best place to start. That's a LOT of debt load to take on at once.

All of the Model 3s can be upgraded to FSD, so there is effectively no differences between an older and newer car in the respect.
The video that you saw, while current day, is for features to be released in the future. Don't even think about buying the car because of what it can do, only make the investment based on what it does today.

You may want to look a some of the other cheaper EVs on the market today, such as the Leaf as a stepping stone. It's still significantly more than your indicated max $5,000 purchase, but nowhere near as high as the Model 3 LR AWD. And the Leaf, when maxed out, has many of the features of the Tesla such as TACC and lane following.

The Leaf is actually more expensive than the Tesla, if you go by range and features. The longest range it has is under the range of the SR 3. The OP would be better of going with the SR+ instead of the Leaf, longer range potential to save money (as it starts at $39,500). To get the features I have in my model 3, not quite the range you would need to get the SL plus which starts at $42,550 (at least where I live, regional prices vary, not sure by how much).

As others have said, never buy a car based on promises on what it may do in the future. Buy it solely on what it can do today. I have EAP so I have NavOnAutoPilot and really it's ok, I usually don't bother with it as I often have to take over when changing lanes because it has not intestinal fortitude and requires ideal conditions for it to change for me. But I use AutoPilot every day going to and from work. I actually drove my truck to work today and really, really missed my AP.

 

[Glamisduner]

The Leaf is actually more expensive than the Tesla, if you go by range and features. The longest range it has is under the range of the SR 3. The OP would be better of going with the SR+ instead of the Leaf, longer range potential to save money (as it starts at $39,500). To get the features I have in my model 3, not quite the range you would need to get the SL plus which starts at $42,550 (at least where I live, regional prices vary, not sure by how much).

As others have said, never buy a car based on promises on what it may do in the future. Buy it solely on what it can do today. I have EAP so I have NavOnAutoPilot and really it's ok, I usually don't bother with it as I often have to take over when changing lanes because it has not intestinal fortitude and requires ideal conditions for it to change for me. But I use AutoPilot every day going to and from work. I actually drove my truck to work today and really, really missed my AP.

I have been using NOA on the way home allot, there is light traffic. However, tesla navigation always wants to take me the long way home, so I have to turn it off (go past the recommended exit) then turn it on again afterward. NOA would be great if your not familiar with the area, and it actually gave you good directions, but since I can't exactly trust it it's not as useful as one would hope.

I still bought FSD recently though, because I feel the new computer upgrade may be worth it, and I want to continue to get updates in the future. EAP is where it is at right now, but it isn't offered anymore.