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Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by jkliu47, Oct 15, 2014.
Tesla's battery-swap stations will finally arrive in December
Hooray! Bring it on!
from the article
Battery swap by Dec. 2014
At least according to this:
Tesla's battery-swap stations will finally arrive in December
Which December? 2015 or 2016?
I still don't really understand pursuing both swaps and superchargers.
If supercharging rates can keep being improved, as Tesla has claimed, then swaps become fairly irrelevant as progress marches on. Which leaves the first maybe 200,000 X & S on the road as the only folks with slower charging technology that'd find substantial value in the time saves with the swap.
If super chargers aren't the future, then Tesla's push to blanket the planet with "free for life" super chargers seems bizarre.
The case I can see being made for swapping is for commercial purposes. Long haul trucking as an example or commercial delivery vehicles that put on a 200 miles a day in city driving.
The cynic in me wonders if it's just a California only expenditure to grab ZEV credits. Tesla doesn't usually chase one-off money like that, but it might make sense in CA.
And from the original SlashGear article http://www.slashgear.com/teslas-first-battery-swap-station-opening-by-december-15350430/:
Tesla will open its first battery-swap station within the next few months, the electric car company has confirmed to SlashGear,
We all know what a "few months" looks like in Tesla time. Also there is also nothing about where they got this information from.
Thrilled to see this coming. Tesla fulfilling a promise to test this capability to see how customer behavior works
I'm a 60kwh and I live in Cali, so I'd benefit on long trips. But what's really interesting is when tesla comes out with a bigger battery (e.g. 100kwh+). All existing tesla owners would be able to benefit from a fast swap on long trips and even get a larger battery for long trips.
Like AWD via dual motors, battery swaps was another promise made back when the Model S was introduced in March of 2009. It will be interesting to see in action if only from an academic POV. I agree that as the Superchargers get better (in both quantity and charge rate), the utility of battery swap stations goes down.
The big if is the possible Supercharging rates. If Tesla is serious and wants to be selling more than 500,000 drivetrains every year, there'll be a lot of Supercharging. At anywhere near current rates that cannot handle peak travel, like holidays. (Believe me, I've headed south when people were heading north in Maine and I've seen LONG jams). In fact, swapping used to supplement Supercharger spots could potentially be the difference-maker in making high percentage ownership possible. (Buy Model S/X, get n free swaps per year...).
Also, I should add that good swapping machines would also significantly cut the labor for the battery replacement cycle.
Swapping is something they need to have ready, but hope they won't have to use.
Any activity at Harris Ranch?
Harris Ranch is getting first battery swap station
In my opinion it comes down to this. This at least partially applies to 60kWh owners today. But it really applies to the Model 3.
I suspect that the Model 3 will come with a range more along the lines of the S60 as base. Over 200, but not approaching 300. That helps quite a bit in bringing the battery price down. So that creates a problem if you want to travel long distances. Battery swap technology lets people buy the base vehicle and then swap in the bigger battery when they want to go on long trips. Along the way they use the super chargers.
So to me this allows them to keep the average vehicle price down. Sure the S base starts at around $70k, but they sell very few 60s. They're usually much more expensive than that. If the Model 3 base price comes out at $50k and you need to upgrade to a bigger battery for $10k, plus whatever options you want, you're getting back close to the S base price. If that price point was attractive to the masses now they'd be selling tons of 60's.
So I think of the battery swaps as range anxiety insurance for people who buy smaller batteries.
Battery swaps no longer qualify for fast charging credits with CARB. Everyone until this has presumed that battery swapping died with that change by CARB.
Edit: Apparently I misunderstood. What I'd read in the past made me think CARB stopped the credits for battery swap entirely. Apparently they just limited to something that was being used. Tesla was getting credits for the swap technology since the cars are capable of it, even if they hadn't deployed it.
Interesting to see Tesla actual putting this thing in to real-life use. Will be very interesting to see how they price not just swap but mostly switching (i.e. not swapping back to your old battery again).
Also, if they roll this out further it could mean that we will not be seeing new pack capacities with the X but rather that they try to have as few different packs as possible - only the 60 and 85 and instead build the infrastructure (SC and swap) around those capacities. The 40 being ditched and no new packs with the D's would be consistent with this.
Anyhow, I will be the most interested in seeing if they will allow 60's to partake in swapping and if so, can they swap up to 85? How much? How much to keep the 85? Can you get paid to swap down from 85 to 60???
This will indeed be interesting. To me the limitation is having to go back and retrieve your old pack. I think once this opens though, if they make the full swap price reasonable you'll see a lot of Sig and other early adopters dropping off those "A" packs! That in and of itself might be why it's taken a while. They need to have extra batteries on hand above production needs and to accomodate those who don't want their old battery anymore.
Couple thoughts come to mind after reading the article:
 Tesla made a profit last year for the first time, so does that mean future lessees will see the $7500 federal incentive passed on to them (in the form of cap cost reduction?? Up to now, Tesla has stated that the company has not realized any profits, thus they don't bother with the $7500.
 Battery swap: the car owner has to pay $60-$80 per swap?? That's like paying for gas. I'd imagine the battery swap stations will be rather empty, therefore lowering the ZEV credits for Tesla, as most owners will just spend a little time doing the "free" supercharging.
I think it's going to be at Hawthorne. Massive construction underway, and it'll just be a matter of time until we all figure out that the swap station is coming there. Hence the news report from today
I don't get it. Battery swapping is the biggest BS in my opinion. It only works if the batteries would be leased. Home charging is sufficient for 90 % of our drives. Supercharges for 9 % of the rest which leaves 1 percent for swapping. I will never ever pay 60$ or more unless I am in the most desperate situation of my life.
I'm assuming that even if one does multiple swaps on a long trip, they'd only need to worry about returning to the first swap station visited. This could probably work for a great many people.
For longer trips involving not many swaps, there might need to be an additional pack rental charge. This could apply if one has a 60 kWh car, swaps up to an 85 kWh pack for a month-long trip, and proceeds to rely mostly or entirely on Superchargers until the final return leg.
Thanks for this. I was under the same impression as you.
In any case, I hope someday CARB comes to its senses and adjusts the quick-refueling credits. Extra points for having a handful of stations, whether they be for hydrogen or electricity doesn't make sense.
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Whenever an EV manufacturer does something you don't get, ask yourself if their action earns ZEV Credit$.
1.. Why would a business do this
2. Don't underestimate the time value of a tesla owner.