Tesla's battery-swap stations will finally arrive in December

[SCDrJ]

As many have said, with Superchargers it seems this will be a niche strategy IMHO. It also seems it will give TM some governmental credits. Kudos to them for coming up with new ideas.

What would be interesting though would be the concept of "leased" batteries as joer00 mentioned above. What if it didn't need to be "your" battery? What happens when batteries are recycleable? Could you swap anytime to a new fresh battery, "included" in the price of ownership like Supercharging? Certainly a bit of time away, but while the swap stations aren't exactly something we'd all use that often, the concept of a "hot swappable" battery is the key bit here and very smart of TM.

 

[markb1]

I will never ever pay 60$ or more unless I am in the most desperate situation of my life.

I think a lot of people would, especially if there is a line for the supercharger. It's about what people pay for a tank of gas, so I think a lot of people would not blink. On the other hand, people will do irrational things to get something "free". It will be interesting to see what happens with a modestly priced batter swap station placed next to a free-but-busy supercharger.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Edit: Apparently I misunderstood. What I'd read in the past made me think CARB stopped the credits for battery swap entirely. Apparently they just limited to something that was being used. Tesla was getting credits for the swap technology since the cars are capable of it, even if they hadn't deployed it.

Yes, CARB suspended the fast refueling credits and now is using a system where Tesla will submit information and they'll be given credits based on fraction of miles traveled using swapping. This is because infrequent use of battery swapping would obviously signal that it's not very useful, and could definitely not be a purchase enabler for all the other miles traveled, nor a signal that Supercharging is more than adequate most of the time, nosirnowaynohow.

 

[Darren Donovan]

1.. Why would a business do this
2. Don't underestimate the time value of a tesla owner.

[1] To get more sales? If Tesla allows the $7500 to be deducted from the price of a lease, they're not gonna lose any money, they'll get it back from the government (in the form of a tax credit). To a potential customer, a "discount" in the car's price of $7500 from MSRP is a big deal.

[2] You may have a point, but we don't know for sure until more swap stations are available. But, from reading the forum, I see that the vast majority of owners are very satisfied with the supercharging stations, pretty much nobody complains about time wasted while charging, so I can't imagine there are that many owners wanting to do the swap (at a cost of $60-$80) just to save time.

 

[glhs272]

I think swapping still makes sense, even considering the supercharger network. It enables people to buy 60Kwh or smaller batteries for when their daily needs don't justify lugging around a pig pack every day. Opening a new lower price point on electrical vehicles, thus broadening the market. On the occasional need for greater capacity they can swap out their small pack for a pig pack for a little while. Swap back when their done with it. Perhaps we could even see a real 40kwh pack with a $10,000 lower base priced Tesla.

Perhaps their could be several business models for pack swap. Pack swaps would be good in city centers where people don't have garage parking or local charging. People who can't charge at home who could from day one participate in a pack swapping program where they never keep their original battery and simple pay a modest monthly fee (not a per-swap deal). Another business model where people just rent a high capacity pack for a while and pay a per-swap fee. And the inevitable "Pay to Upgrade" user who wants the best/freshest packs all the time.

 

[Chris TX]

I have a hypothesis here:

The S85D/P85D are the first cars to have an advertized 285 mile range.
This was introduced this month and the first deliveries are slated to be December (still 2014)
At least one battery swap location will be located in California this year.

So, if you were to take a S85D/P85D to a battery swap location, you would indeed be able to swap in 285 miles of range in less than 15 minutes.
That helps Tesla keep their ZEV credits.

The California hydrogen FOOL cell lobby against Tesla will have failed.

 

[breser]

[1] Tesla made a profit last year for the first time, so does that mean future lessees will see the $7500 federal incentive passed on to them (in the form of cap cost reduction?? Up to now, Tesla has stated that the company has not realized any profits, thus they don't bother with the $7500.

Tesla was only profitable when you treat the revenue for the "lease that's not a lease" financing setup as immediate income. That's not allowed under GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Practices). I have no idea how that would be treated for tax purposes. So it's not clear if Tesla can claim the $7500 or not.

 

[omarsultan]

That helps Tesla keep their ZEV credits.

IIRC Tesla has not used any of their ZEV credits since last October, so that does not seem to be a motivator. I think for mainstream adoption, Tesla needs an option that is comparable to a refueling an ICE otherwise it will be a psychological barrier for many folks.

One our recent trip to LA, I was thinking swapping might have been a nice alternative to designation charging.

Regardless, I think they are smart to hedge their bets and be ready to move whichever direction customers want.

 

[cpa]

Regarding battery swapping and the assumed installation at Harris Ranch and maybe even Hawthorne:

I wonder if battery swapping will only be realized along highly-traveled routes between areas that have high concentrations of Teslas. Harris Ranch would enable commuters from either the Bay Area or the Greater Los Angeles Area to stop in Gilroy or Ft. Tejon for a brief 10-minute charge to add enough range to make Harris Ranch for a 3-minute stop. This will shave at least an hour off the drive. Similarly, there are likely places along the east coast where a similar exchange would save a lot of time.

Along the more rural roads in the west, I would be very surprised to see battery swapping stations at every Supercharger location on I-70 or I-40. There might come a time where battery-swapping might be placed at every nth Supercharger location (to use I-70: maybe Beaver UT and again at Grand Junction and then finally in Denver.)

But I think that the overarching need for us now is the completion of the Supercharger network both here and overseas with modest increases in charging rates, battery permitting!

 

[Olle]

I have a hypothesis here:

The S85D/P85D are the first cars to have an advertized 285 mile range.
This was introduced this month and the first deliveries are slated to be December (still 2014)
At least one battery swap location will be located in California this year.

So, if you were to take a S85D/P85D to a battery swap location, you would indeed be able to swap in 285 miles of range in less than 15 minutes.
That helps Tesla keep their ZEV credits.

The California hydrogen FOOL cell lobby against Tesla will have failed.

Exactly right!
Btw 85D advertised range is 295 miles. I am sure the fool cell lobby will now push for minimum 296 miles in 15 minutes...

 

[jyc]

I think battery swapping still has an important use case, especially when a supercharger is overly busy and there is a queue to charge.

I was at the San Juan Capistrano supercharger and down to 24 miles range with only 90 minutes left to pick up the kids at day care in San Diego just over 60 miles away (i.e. very little buffer time for waiting for a charger to get to daycare on time). All stalls were full and after I arrived, the queue for a charging spot ended up 5 or 6 cars deep. If I could have simply done a battery swap, that would have been much less anxiety. I made it to daycare with 5 minutes to spare and only a few miles extra range buffer to get home!

Swapping would be great when time is of the essence and the superchargers are full. Granted SJC is one of the busiest charging sites according to the live read-out at Hawthorne. Sometimes, it's just not possible to manage time differently to allow extra time for queuing for a charger and then charging slowly as the second car on one supercharger stack.

 

[redi]

[1] To get more sales? If Tesla allows the $7500 to be deducted from the price of a lease, they're not gonna lose any money, they'll get it back from the government (in the form of a tax credit). To a potential customer, a "discount" in the car's price of $7500 from MSRP is a big deal.

Keep in mind that the $7500 tax credit is turning out to be a bit creative as with the intro of the D cars, and activity on trade-ins, Tesla pulls the $7500 right back out of your trade-in offer. You only *thought* the $7500 was yours.

And the $7500 is unaffected by depreciation.

 

[Olle]

A few thoughts on this.
1. If TM can figure out how to define battery degradation, there could be a policy for keeping the swapped battery if it has the same degradation as yours, and have a program where you get pay/get paid if you elect to keep a better/worse battery.
2. Some people have said that the D cars have HT outlets front and rear. If true, there will be a lot of extra stock to keep track of in the swap stations. At least util RWD batteries are phased out assuming that they are upward compatible meaning AWD battery fits in RWD cars
3. Swapping makes sense for Taxi and Livery cars.
4. Some people write that they wouldn't pay for a swap unless their life depended on it. I beg to differ. I can see situations maybe once or twice a year where I would pay. Let's say friends were already waiting at the dinner table at my destination. Or let's say I was running late with the car full of kids with $300 worth with prepaid ski passes, 200 miles from the slope. Rather pay $60 for a swap than delay another 20 min.

 

[ckessel]

...[situations where]...Rather pay $60 for a swap than delay another 20 min.

Those are certainly possibilities. I think the number of times most people's time is worth $180/hour would be pretty rare though.

If someone's time is regularly worth $180, they should probably hire a chauffeur so they can work while being driven.

 

[Chris TX]

IIRC Tesla has not used any of their ZEV credits since last October, so that does not seem to be a motivator.

Tesla SELLS those ZEV credits for mega bucks! They in turn use that money to innovate more.

 

[RiverBrick]

IIRC Tesla has not used any of their ZEV credits since last October, so that does not seem to be a motivator.

The credits are bankable. Tesla may be waiting for a later time when the credits may be worth more..

 

[Chris TX]

The credits are bankable. Tesla may be waiting for a later time when the credits may be worth more..

This is from last year, but you get the idea:
Tesla sells most ZEV green car credits, GM tops buyer list

And from this year. It says they got $68 million from selling credits to other manufacturers.
Tesla's ZEV Credit Win Should Silence Some Of Their Critics


And the credits are worth a lot right now. The longer they hold them, the greater chance that GM and others will actually produce a vehicle that would net them some.

 

[RDoc]

Perhaps Tesla can take a page from MB with their electric Smart Car battery leases. Leasing the battery would significantly lower the initial cost of the vehicle and make battery swapping quite attractive I'd think. Much shorter stops when traveling would be very welcome, since, while supercharging is fast for charging, it's very slow compared to refueling.

I'm unconvinced that the model of dropping off your battery, having it stored while you're away, then getting it back is really viable. Managing the storage seems very difficult to make practical due to the weight and volume of the batteries, not to mention the requirement of returning to the first swap station.

For leasing to really be acceptable though there'd have to be some kind of capacity guarantee to avoid problems when recharging an exchanged leased battery for normal use.

 

[doug]

And the [ZEV] credits are worth a lot right now. The longer they hold them, the greater chance that GM and others will actually produce a vehicle that would net them some.

Which is precisely why some automakers are pursuing HFCVs.

 

[Chris TX]

Which is precisely why some automakers are pursuing HFCVs.

High Fructose Corn Vehicles?

/sarcasm