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Tesla's Factory Reaches 20,000 Model S Per Year Run Rate

Discussion in 'Tesla Motors' started by carrerascott, Jan 30, 2013.

  1. carrerascott

    carrerascott FUEL FTR

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    Charlottesville, Virginia
    Saw this, said it was published today, so thought I'd share... (If it's old news, sorry)

    http://www.treehugger.com/cars/teslas-factory-reaches-20000-model-s-year-run-rate.html

    Big Milestone

    Tesla keeps proving the skeptics wrong. For years we've heard all kinds of arguments explaining why they couldn't possibly succeed, and why they wouldn't deliver what they promised, how the auto industry was too hard to break into, etc. From the first promo pics of the Tesla Roadster in July 2006 to now, every time Tesla hits a new milestone, the naysayers go something like: "Well, they did this thing, but they won't get to this next thing." So I'll be curious to see what they'll come up with now that its been revealed that Tesla's factory has now reached its goal of producing
    Model S electric sedans
    at a rate of 20,000 a year, or 400 a week.This is a big deal because economies of scale - the more you make of something, the less it costs you per unit because you can amortize your fixed costs over more products and you have more bargaining power with your suppliers - are a big part of Tesla's strategy. It'll also help clear their backlog of orders, which have piled up to around 13,000-15,000, and promise faster deliveries to new customers (some people might be deciding against the Model S because of the long waiting lists).Another change is that so far, Tesla has only been making the more expensive top-of-the-line 85kWh model. It will now have the production capacity to start making 60kWh models too, filling some of those orders.The company is also working hard on the Model X release, which should happen in mid to late 2014. Automotive News reports:
    The Model X development is undergoing the transformation from the functional initial prototype that was unveiled last year to a production-ready prototype. The company will be making final decisions on the interior and exterior dimensions of the car in the first quarter of 2013, Musk said in an interview.
    A key part of the Model X will be its dual-motor all-wheel drive system, which Musk predicted would give the crossover "the best road handling of any car in the world." (source)
    And after that the next step will be a new model based on a third platform, closer in size to a BMW 3 and with a price around 30,000-35,000. This should be released in 3-4 years, and could be a major breakthrough for electric cars in my opinion, especially if the Supercharger network of fast-charging stationsthat provide free power grows all around the country and the world.Via Automotive News, Green Car Reports
     
  2. Mayhemm

    Mayhemm Model S P85+ "Lola"

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    This is great news! I was just going to post a thread inquiring on how Tesla was doing at meeting their goals for the new year.

    Guess I don't need to do that.
     
  3. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    Recently someone in investor discussion thread claimed that second shift approached 50 cars a day production rate. If true, that would translate to 600 units a week rate(6 days * 2 shifts * 50 cars)....
     
  4. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Here's what I think is the best way to estimate current production. The best insight we have into production is VINs, since they are assigned in order when the car enters the line (more or less). Since delivery and other factors can totally throw off the order in which VINs are delivered, the best way to see where they are at is to look for somebody who has received their VIN when the car is still being built. Therefore, for each week go through and see what the highest received VIN is and calculate from there. Since the factory took a break at the beginning of January, I start after that.

    On January 15th, there was a reported VIN of 3755, the highest I saw around that time. The highest recent VIN reported that I can find is 4587 on Jan 30th. That's 832 cars in 15 days, which works out to 20245 cars a year. Not sure what the margin of error is ;-)
     
  5. Lloyd

    Lloyd Active Member

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    Not to be negative, but they were supposed to produce 400 per week at one shift! Costs may increase some to accomodate the 2nd shift in the bottom line calculation. Glad to see the cars rolling off, but the projected margin on each car may be lower than anticipated.
     
  6. gregincal

    gregincal Active Member

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    Possibly at this stage, but it makes a big difference whether they have two shifts because they needed them to get to 20,000 or (more likely in my opinion) they are planning to ramp production to well beyond 20,000 a year.
     
  7. jkirkebo

    jkirkebo Model S P85+ VIN 14420 EU

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    I recorded vin 4702 reported on Jan 30th, so production is a little higher I think.

    Edit: someone reporyed vin 4983 today. That is 1228 cars in 17 days or a week rate of 505.
     

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