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Pollards07

Member
May 11, 2019
11
3
Brawley, Ca
I've had AP1 since it came out and AP2.5 for eighteen months now and I'm pleased with the progress. I wish it were faster progress, of course, but FSD has been showing continuous improvements and I think they'll eventually get to FSD. Not as fast as Musk thinks but he's a dreamer and a visionary and aggressive timelines are in his DNA (and that's a good thing, I think, for someone leading an organization with bright, driven, people working there).

That said, I think the $1000 price increase is inappropriate at this point because I feel like Tesla is still yet to deliver the value that their current pricing warrants. IOW, they still owe us features for which we've already paid and they shouldn't be raising the price based upon what's recently been added to "FSD."
 

IronQQQ

Member
Jun 11, 2019
217
332
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
If FSD was priced at $3k would 2x or 3x or more ppl buy FSD, making more money for Tesla vs $6k/7k? Then again, reducing the price would entail droves of unhappy customers.... But Tesla has done plenty of that already with their other reprices...so that would not be new.

After 11k miles in 3.5 months on +60% driving on autosteer TACC.... I'm quite pleased and wouldn't spend $6 or 7k on FSD. I'd rather just put that to a second vehicle purchase.

At $3k I'd upgrade immediately to FSD.
 
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SteveD

Member
Supporting Member
Aug 6, 2018
105
35
Tacoma, Wa
Meh. I've had it for over a year, and watched it mature a bit. I'm not holding my breath at my car being able to really drive itself (as in robotaxi level of competence) for maybe 5 more years. Yes as an engineer in high tech I understand geometric progression of capability. I also think it will need a next-gen set of sensors - it still stinks at judging distance of cars behind / in adjacent lanes. Too many situations it can't handle yet, just on the highway where it's supposed to be there already. Self-parking is hit or miss, and it's not very sure of itself on winding rural roads (granted that's beta territory). No way it's anywhere near ready to be unleashed on city streets with pedestrians, bicycles, mopeds, crazy taxi drivers, etc. Maybe HW3.0 will help some.

It was pure joy driving on autopilot on winding rural roads in eastern Washington on a road trip in August. I was amazed to see the car slow when pulling curves. I have no idea what technology is used to slow the car into curves. It was so much fun driving in a relaxed manner, watching the scenery, reading road sign, etc. The more I use autopilot, the more confident I feel in the technology. I have found the car is rock solid in tracking the road. Watching other cars, they are the ones wandering inside the lanes, not the Tesla on autopilot. I have always been an easy adopter of technology. I call it an investment in the future. I recently upgraded to full autopilot when a discount was offered a couple of months ago. I'm looking forward to an upgrade to HW3.0.

However in no way am I turning over complete control of the Tesla to autopilot. I will never be that person driving down the freeway asleep at the wheel. My hands are on the wheels and eye on the road. Alway ready to take control of the car. But my trust is growing with the whole autopilot system. I'm a fan. Just my humble opinion.
 
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Dubes

Member
Aug 5, 2019
45
22
Novi
Purchased a Model X with FSD two months ago. Excellent investment!! Highly recommended. Looking forward to city driving whenever Tesla engineers deem it ready. Awesome job delivering the highest technology in the industry!! Tx.
I use FSD all the time and feel safer than when I used to drive without it. I use it as intended as an aid to driving and realize I will need to take over occasionally. Makes driving much more relaxing and fun.
Thanks so much to everyone at Tesla!!
 
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acal

Member
Apr 2, 2018
63
58
Santa Clara, CA
there’s just no way that I see FSD happening anytime soon =

I would throw down 10k, even money, that L5 FSD will not be available before 2025. Certainly, this is a thing that will eventually happen. However, it is substantially far off. I honestly can't tell if Elon is delusional or lying when he says things like 'FDS by the end of the year except for regulatory approval'. We are very definitely NOT that close.
 

Dubes

Member
Aug 5, 2019
45
22
Novi
I would throw down 10k, even money, that L5 FSD will not be available before 2025. Certainly, this is a thing that will eventually happen. However, it is substantially far off. I honestly can't tell if Elon is delusional or lying when he says things like 'FDS by the end of the year except for regulatory approval'. We are very definitely NOT that close.
I thought the same thing until I read an article on the new approach Tesla is using to teaching neural nets on FSD. Basically large amounts of data are used with human examples of driving in various situations. Apparently Billions of miles of data are sorted to get enough examples of rare situations. Tesla is the only company with this much data. What is interesting about this approach as I understand it is that progress is not piecemeal but rather by large leaps after a huge dataset is processed by a neural net.
I don't fully understand it, but I can believe that progress toward L5 could come much faster than is apparent now.
Personally, I don't care much about that now as I find the current FSD and Autopilot fun and much lower stress. After city driving is released, if I need to intervene occasionally just as I do now on freeways, that will be wonderful.
When I'm 80-90+ yo, in 20++ years, I will be grateful for L5! Living at a great time! Thanks Tesla!!!
 

hill

high fiber member
Apr 21, 2015
1,348
758
either MT or TN
Not a fan of hydrogen fuel-cell, but after seeing FSD 1st offered up (sold) in 2016 .... & now 2020 is just 2 months away .... the missed deadlines will eventually mirror hydrogen's "in 10 years" nonsense .... promulgated since the 1970s.
Maybe Musk learned there's no consequences to over promising ... other than only a few will still hang onto his every pronouncement.
.
 

Kiwiadventure

Member
Jan 9, 2018
497
233
Auckland New Zealand
I'm pushing the button next week and purchasing FSD as in New Zealand the price increase will be close to 1.6k kiwi. It costs 9.6k kiwi now including tax. By the time it goes through my business with tax deductions it will cost 4.5k kiwi.
I wasn't going to purchase FSD but I'm enjoying autopilot with all its faults and makes driving a fun experience so FSD should even be more fun not knowing what's coming next as the car drives itself down the road.
 
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arghx7

Member
Aug 6, 2019
523
606
Michigan
Well I did it. My wallet is now $6000 lighter. Elon got me with the FOMO marketing. I'm going to be very cautious about using any kind of summon or NoA lane changes.
 

ZoominRound

Member
Mar 22, 2019
5
3
Oakland, California
I bought a particular set of features that was called Enhanced Auto Pilot (EAP) at the time I ordered my Model S, which was delivered in December 2018. I decided NOT to spend the extra thousands for Full Self Driving (FSD) at that time. But only because I could not figure out what additional features might be in FSD that weren’t in EAP (as defined at that point in time). I still can’t really understand the difference, so I don’t think I’ll be buying now, either. Tesla now describes FSD as:
  • Navigate on Autopilot (Beta): I’m pretty sure I’ve been using this since the car was delivered.
  • Auto Lane Change: Same deal with this.
  • Autopark: Same
  • Summon: Same
  • Smart Summon: Same
  • AND..... Coming later this year (2019j:
  • Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs: Hmmm, we’ll see.
  • Automatic driving on city streets: Hmmm, we’ll see.
So, am I missing something?

To be clear, I use both Autopilot and Navigate on Autopilot for most of my freeway driving. There are issues, but I love it....... being able to take in the scenery, study the map, open a water bottle, etc. I can just let down my guard a bit, but I’m always vigilant. Just got Version 10 “upgrade”. Significant issues, but that’s for another posting.
 
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acal

Member
Apr 2, 2018
63
58
Santa Clara, CA
I thought the same thing until I read an article on the new approach Tesla is using to teaching neural nets on FSD. Basically large amounts of data are used with human examples of driving in various situations. Apparently Billions of miles of data are sorted to get enough examples of rare situations. Tesla is the only company with this much data. What is interesting about this approach as I understand it is that progress is not piecemeal but rather by large leaps after a huge dataset is processed by a neural net.
I don't fully understand it, but I can believe that progress toward L5 could come much faster than is apparent now.
Personally, I don't care much about that now as I find the current FSD and Autopilot fun and much lower stress. After city driving is released, if I need to intervene occasionally just as I do now on freeways, that will be wonderful.
When I'm 80-90+ yo, in 20++ years, I will be grateful for L5! Living at a great time! Thanks Tesla!!!

I know a fair bit about how this sort of ML approach works. It's less push-button, just add data, than people describe it as. Overfitting is the biggest concern w/ insufficient data, and yes - more data makes that less likely, but you may need __A LOT__ more data if you haven't tagged things appropriately. A LOT can be so much that a billion miles, or a trillion miles, may not be nearly enough. There is only so much you can fix by just training the models on more data.

I'm pretty confident in my bet.
 

jebinc

MSM Model S PLAID, cream/FSD; MYP, white on white
Supporting Member
Jun 19, 2019
7,655
10,876
Seattle area
I know a fair bit about how this sort of ML approach works. It's less push-button, just add data, than people describe it as. Overfitting is the biggest concern w/ insufficient data, and yes - more data makes that less likely, but you may need __A LOT__ more data if you haven't tagged things appropriately. A LOT can be so much that a billion miles, or a trillion miles, may not be nearly enough. There is only so much you can fix by just training the models on more data.

I'm pretty confident in my bet.
I am as well, confident in your bet, that is. Range of the Tesla ultrasonic sensors/front radar (and lack of a rear radar) coupled with the fact cameras suck at night and in incline the weather (get dirty), leaves me to believe my current M3 will never see anything above improved L2 autonomy. Anyone see the recent NOVA special on autonomous driving? A must watch and not “brand” specific or biased.
 

Dubes

Member
Aug 5, 2019
45
22
Novi
I am as well, confident in your bet, that is. Range of the Tesla ultrasonic sensors/front radar (and lack of a rear radar) coupled with the fact cameras suck at night and in incline the weather (get dirty), leaves me to believe my current M3 will never see anything above improved L2 autonomy. Anyone see the recent NOVA special on autonomous driving? A must watch and not “brand” specific or biased.
Ok, I see your points. Although I look forward to L5 self driving, I agree it will be extremely difficult to achieve 100% . Even Waymo is currently using it but only in pristine selected areas with a remote backup driver for problems. Construction areas are extremely difficult. And what about a construction or traffic cop trying to signal to the car?
On the other hand, 2025 is not that far away, so your prediction doesn't push it out that far.
In the meantime, I'm extremely happy with what we are getting so far and how quickly new features are coming. My wife calls my Tesla the gift that keeps giving! And I appreciate what a huge accomplishment, built on the shoulders of many generations of Giants, our current features are. I have been watching and waiting for this technology for more than 30 years! It is finally arriving!!!
 

MexiCanuck

Member
May 7, 2019
494
498
Vancouver Island
On the other hand, 2025 is not that far away, so your prediction doesn't push it out that far.
I bought FSD with my TM3 as “future proofing”. I tend to keep vehicles for at least a decade. My 1989 Ranger lasted until around 2010. My 2004 Prius was replaced by a 2014 Prius v only after it was totalled in a collision. My 2010 B4000 is still in the driveway.

I expect to be driving my TH3 well after 2025. I’m in my mid-60s. I have seen the driving skills of older relatives and friends deteriorate with age. I’m betting that the driving skills of my TM3 will offset when my driving skills deteriorate,
 

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,507
Earth
I bought a particular set of features that was called Enhanced Auto Pilot (EAP) at the time I ordered my Model S, which was delivered in December 2018. I decided NOT to spend the extra thousands for Full Self Driving (FSD) at that time. But only because I could not figure out what additional features might be in FSD that weren’t in EAP (as defined at that point in time). I still can’t really understand the difference, so I don’t think I’ll be buying now, either. Tesla now describes FSD as:
  • Navigate on Autopilot (Beta): I’m pretty sure I’ve been using this since the car was delivered.
  • Auto Lane Change: Same deal with this.
  • Autopark: Same
  • Summon: Same
  • Smart Summon: Same
  • AND..... Coming later this year (2019j:
  • Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs: Hmmm, we’ll see.
  • Automatic driving on city streets: Hmmm, we’ll see.
So, am I missing something?

To be clear, I use both Autopilot and Navigate on Autopilot for most of my freeway driving. There are issues, but I love it....... being able to take in the scenery, study the map, open a water bottle, etc. I can just let down my guard a bit, but I’m always vigilant. Just got Version 10 “upgrade”. Significant issues, but that’s for another posting.

No, despite Tesla promising features or benefits for the original FSD in several instances and in several ways, it never happened.

The original FSD (pre-2019) has no features, none at all at this time. Your Enhanced Autopilot has them all. And apparenly now new HW3 cars are getting cone recognition, but the original FSD or EAP cars no do not have that even with FSD, so you are not missing out on that either at this time due to EAP.

So you have not missed out on anything.
 

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