Tesla's Future? 200,000 cars/year!

[Cattledog]

Elon interview with CNN, saying that in 3-4 years time they hope to be selling 'a couple hundred thousand' cars per year with addition of Gen 3 to S & X. That comment's at about 1:20.

http://money.cnn.com/video/pf/2013/04/03/pf-w-tesla-elon-mush.cnnmoney

200,000 cars a year is Porsche, which has a $20B market cap +.

Giddy up...

 

[Johan]

Yes please! All while maintaining 25% margin. Something that may be possible if the other big automakers continue their dawdling and keep putting out low volumes of poor BEVs. And of course is there is quick public adoption which I believe we're seeing happening right now, and historically that kind of adaptation when it comes to new technology happens faster and faster for every decade (personal computers took 10 years, internet 5 years, smartphones 3 years etc.).

 

[Zzzz...]

Model S outsell Porsche Panamera, for each Panamera sold in US around four Model S sold in Q1 '13...

But TM need to expand model lineup and go after oversees markets...

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

Mainstream Teslas ~ 2 years it is!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Thanks for posting the link. This is first time that I've heard EM alluding to the planned volume of Gen III (presumably in the first year of the production). I read it as EM sees Model S and X at 100K and Gen III starting with 100K in the first full year of the production.

 

[jkirkebo]

About SuperCharging, some assumptions:

- SC hardware cost Tesla $500 to install in each car
- They charge $2000 to enable it
- They sell 200,000 cars per year
- 75% of those are sold with SuperCharging enabled (mandatory on some models, options on the rest)

They will have ($2000*150,000)-($500*200,000)=$200 million dollar PER YEAR to build out and maintain the SuperCharger network.

That should be enough to build at least 12-1500 new SC stations per year and maintain the current network.

We might be seeing a lot of those SC stations in a few years

BTW, some of us Norwegians have been working on a map to see how many SC stations are needed in Norway for an optimal spread. The result was 41. I should have added one more

Tesla SC foreslåtte lokasjoner i Norge

 

[Johan]

BTW, some of us Norwegians have been working on a map to see how many SC stations are needed in Norway for an optimal spread. The result was 41. I should have added one more

Tesla SC foreslåtte lokasjoner i Norge

... All thanks to the computational power of bistromathics.

 

[PopSmith]

About SuperCharging, some assumptions:

- SC hardware cost Tesla $500 to install in each car
- They charge $2000 to enable it
- They sell 200,000 cars per year
- 75% of those are sold with SuperCharging enabled (mandatory on some models, options on the rest)

I'd just like to add that the Supercharger cost is (or was) $250,000 per station w/4-6 charging ports.
Tesla Builds $250,000 Fast Chargers for Model S - Businessweek

 

[Robert.Boston]

BTW, some of us Norwegians have been working on a map to see how many SC stations are needed in Norway for an optimal spread. The result was 41. I should have added one more

Tesla SC foreslåtte lokasjoner i Norge

You should post this over in the Tesla Supercharger network thread, too. It's overly dominated by US SC network.