Tesla's Future

[Matthew Short]

I recently read an article saying that Tesla will likely not survive and will fold within the next ten years, I know that everyone has been saying that since Tesla first started but I was just wondering if it could be true this time. I read that they tanked Model S productions by around 2000 in Q3 2015 and took out a loan from the Bank of America for $300 million. But Still I have faith in Tesla and I hope they survive.

 

[trentxintong]

I recently read an article saying that Tesla will likely not survive and will fold within the next ten years, I know that everyone has been saying that since Tesla first started but I was just wondering if it could be true this time. I read that they tanked Model S productions by around 2000 in Q3 2015 and took out a loan from the Bank of America for $300 million. But Still I have faith in Tesla and I hope they survive.

can you post a link to the article ?

 

[TexasEV]

can you post a link to the article ?

Why? Shorts and other vested interests are always writing that Tesla won't survive. Do we need to give them more clicks?

 

[theboom1]

I have read the same from many sources and top annalists. Even if they do fold they have already made tremendous advances for electric cars.

 

[PtG62901]

Green energy is going to happen. If they can get batteries right, they should be fine. We know fossil fuel is going to run out sooner or later.

 

[Canuck]

It seems unlikely they will fold but it is conceivable that they could go through similar tough times like Sirius/XM did.

 

[ecarfan]

I recently read an article saying that Tesla will likely not survive and will fold within the next ten years

As you noted, there have been many such articles. As a TSLA long I'm betting Tesla wil prosper and grow long term.

 

[Dwdnjck]

There is a Tony Seba presentation on disruption available on U tube that might provide some insight.

 

[Matthew Short]

I think they will survive and I agree that even if they do fold they have made a huge forever change in the EV industry.

 

[Matthew Short]

can you post a link to the article ?

This Guy Says Tesla Will Fail As A Company; Discuss
couldn't find the exact one but here is one.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think 10 years is being a bit vague.

The key steps are for Model 3:
- Can't get investment for Model 3
- Can't deliver on Model 3

Other than that, the major disruptors would be a new cell design or affordable autonomous systems by other companies.

To me it's either going to happen within 2 years, or it'd take about 20 years. My bet's* on 2 years, when the Model 3 doesn't get delivered.

* Not a literal bet, I'm actually betting my Model 3 reservation fee on success.

 

[Julian K.]

Many articles like this are written by people who have an interest in the TSLA Stock. I think Elon and Tesla are on the right track to build an successful company, but there are many obstacles to tackle on the way.
I think the risk of familiar isn't too small, because they are investing heavily in the gigafactory, the production ramp of the M3 and the upcoming production of solar panels. So they have much on their plate and as mentioned in Elos biography all of these capital intensive investments have to come together at the same time.
But I don't want to sound too negative because I believe in Elons Plan for the future and think that what he is doing is so important, that it is worth taking these risks.

 

[N5329K]

We're all (mostly all) fans here but it is important to recognize that Tesla Motors is a start up and most start ups fail. Looking at all the flaming torches that have to be juggled and kept in the air, it's a wonderment that it hasn't come crashing down already. That it hasn't speaks well for the folks at the helm, even if it seems (to me, anyway) that not all their recent moves make sense.
They have one semi-terrific product, one product that might evolve to become semi-terrific, and a completely brilliant idea (endorsed by hundreds of thousands of buyers) for moving into the broader market. If they can manage that move, meet expectations for timeliness, quality and cost, they'll survive. IMO, if they can't, chances are investor dollars will dry up and they'll crater.
Robin

 

[brshoemak]

I lately find myself wavering on the outlook of Tesla and the Model 3. They have to get the Model 3 perfect, and I mean perfect in terms of quality, fit, finish, and reliability or it could be the end of Tesla. I don't know if they have the quality controls in place to make that happen.

People today have zero patience for growing pains, and they won't understand that it's not going to be like a Honda Civic, where you just take it somewhere local and they take care of most issues within a week. The most vocal will take to the infosphere of social media to bitch endlessly and it will honestly shape opinions, whether the concerns are valid or not.

It's a little scary to think that you could spend $40-60K on a car that might not even have a supporting infrastructure left in 5-10 years. What happens if the cash dries up and they have to close many or most of the service centers? Your resale value would be non-existent as well.

I also was a little put off by Elon's directive to get every possible car finished and delivered before another round of raising capital. There are already occasional fit and finish issues with the Model S/X and rushing doesn't seem like it will help in that regard.

That being said, I'm not even thinking of giving up my Model 3 reservation at the moment, so don't ask. But I'll definitely need to evaluate where Tesla is in the marketplace when they give me the option to configure my Model 3.

 

[PtG62901]

We're all (mostly all) fans here but it is important to recognize that Tesla Motors is a start up and most start ups fail. Looking at all the flaming torches that have to be juggled and kept in the air, it's a wonderment that it hasn't come crashing down already. That it hasn't speaks well for the folks at the helm, even if it seems (to me, anyway) that not all their recent moves make sense.
They have one semi-terrific product, one product that might evolve to become semi-terrific, and a completely brilliant idea (endorsed by hundreds of thousands of buyers) for moving into the broader market. If they can manage that move, meet expectations for timeliness, quality and cost, they'll survive. IMO, if they can't, chances are investor dollars will dry up and they'll crater.
Robin

I understand what you are saying, but Tesla isn't a startup, so your statistics are really on target. They are a VC funded, public company, with thousands of real customers and employees. The rate of failure for companies like Tesla is very small. Of course, Tesla is betting the farm on new initiatives, so they are somewhere in between startup and public company IMHO.

 

[PtG62901]

I lately find myself wavering on the outlook of Tesla and the Model 3. They have to get the Model 3 perfect, and I mean perfect in terms of quality, fit, finish, and reliability or it could be the end of Tesla. I don't know if they have the quality controls in place to make that happen.

People today have zero patience for growing pains, and they won't understand that it's not going to be like a Honda Civic, where you just take it somewhere local and they take care of most issues within a week. The most vocal will take to the infosphere of social media to bitch endlessly and it will honestly shape opinions, whether the concerns are valid or not.

It's a little scary to think that you could spend $40-60K on a car that might not even have a supporting infrastructure left in 5-10 years. What happens if the cash dries up and they have to close many or most of the service centers? Your resale value would be non-existent as well.

I also was a little put off by Elon's directive to get every possible car finished and delivered before another round of raising capital. There are already occasional fit and finish issues with the Model S/X and rushing doesn't seem like it will help in that regard.

That being said, I'm not even thinking of giving up my Model 3 reservation at the moment, so don't ask. But I'll definitely need to evaluate where Tesla is in the marketplace when they give me the option to configure my Model 3.

You might take a look at Crossing the Chasm (at least the wikipedia article) about technology is adopted. The question is when EV's cross into the mainstream, and how much it costs to make that happen. It is going to happen. The company that is positioned as the leader when it happens will do great. Tesla plans to be that company. No reason it shouldn't work, it is very close.

EV's are better cars then ICE, in most every way, if you can solve the range problems.

 

[N5329K]

I understand what you are saying, but Tesla isn't a startup, so your statistics are really on target. They are a VC funded, public company, with thousands of real customers and employees. The rate of failure for companies like Tesla is very small. Of course, Tesla is betting the farm on new initiatives, so they are somewhere in between startup and public company IMHO.

That's the dilemma in a nutshell. They are a start up by management style and they aren't a start up in scale and ambition. One leg in the canoe, one leg on the dock. I believe the jury is still out on their making the transition.
Robin

 

[3Victoria]

The article was quoting a guy in EU setting up to sell lithium to battery manufacturers ... hardly an expert on EVs or Tesla. Love (not) how 'journalist' spread pure speculation. If he had said 'Tesla will be around for a long time' it wouldn't have been reported. One should always take press with a huge grain of salt. I had an article written about me as a kid -- the report got almost every fact wrong!

 

[theboom1]

There is a Tony Seba presentation on disruption available on U tube that might provide some insight.

Just watched it. Wanted to vomit. Will not happen in that capacity. Maybe in the very heart of a city in peak traffic times but that is all.

 

[djplong]

I think I read my first "Tesla will fold withing 2 years" article in 2009.