Tesla's long term plan for superchargers?

[Rocky_H]

I would think 150kW would be a good bit more expensive than 72kW urban chargers. More transformer capacity (perhaps this just comes back as operating expense?), 2x the AC2DC converters, and more copper in the wiring. The urban chargers have thinner cables.

You've got some mix of correct and incorrect in here. The transformers and AC2DC converters are the same. A standard 150kW one is 150kW, and it does that "primary" "secondary" shifting of power. The urban ones that you are thinking of as 72kW are using the same 150kW power source, but they just enforce a constant half and half split of the power, so neither side will use more than 72kW.

However, yes, you are right that because they know both of the pedestals will be carrying lower currents, they do get to use thinner wiring and cables out to the stalls, so they are cheaper in that part of it.

 

[electracity]

Care to elaborate with some example figures?
I’m asking because I don’t know how different it is.

Understanding Electric Consumption & Demand Charges - GridPoint

 

[ajdelange]

Clearly the capital costs of a station are going to depend on the stations peak capacity. 150 kW capacity requires more steel (transformer), copper (transformer and cabling) and silicon (rectifier modules). Also installation costs will be higher though that may be marginal.

 

[brkaus]

You've got some mix of correct and incorrect in here. The transformers and AC2DC converters are the same. A standard 150kW one is 150kW, and it does that "primary" "secondary" shifting of power. The urban ones that you are thinking of as 72kW are using the same 150kW power source, but they just enforce a constant half and half split of the power, so neither side will use more than 72kW.

However, yes, you are right that because they know both of the pedestals will be carrying lower currents, they do get to use thinner wiring and cables out to the stalls, so they are cheaper in that part of it.

Yea. Brain fart. Wasn’t thinking about the shared model used by the 150kW units.

 

[Big Earl]

Clearly the capital costs of a station are going to depend on the stations peak capacity. 150 kW capacity requires more steel (transformer), copper (transformer and cabling) and silicon (rectifier modules). Also installation costs will be higher though that may be marginal.

Everything between an 8-stall 150 kW station and an 8-stall urban 72 kW station is the same except for the wiring between the charging cabinets and the pedestals, which is thinner in the urban configuration. The main transformer, switchgear, autotransformers and Supercharger cabinets are essentially the same.

 

[ajdelange]

The capacity of an 8 x 72 kW station is 576 kW. If the 8 x 150 kW station is limited to 48 % of 8 x 150 kW) then the transformers, switchgear and number of rectifier modules could be the same. Otherwise, no. The amounts of copper, steel and silicon will be proportional to the peak capability of the installation. I am aware that an 8 x 150 kW station will not supply 150 kW to 8 cars simultaneously. But the principle stands.

 

[Kenz]

V3 charging speeds are great for road trips but for everything else it is not necessary.
Most people charge at home or work 90% of the time.
I would love for Tesla to put in more pull thru chargers so people get used to the idea of charge and GO.
Charging beyond 80% is usually not necessary and a waste of time because charge speed slows as the battery fills up..

 

[GreenT]

I've been saying for ages that for Tesla to THRIVE, over the next 1-3 years they have to, need to, ...

- stop making cars
- only make long haul semis where the real money is
- have their charging network be adopted by all the other EV makers
- close their useless service centers and have the other brands SC take over.

 

[Big Earl]

The capacity of an 8 x 72 kW station is 576 kW. If the 8 x 150 kW station is limited to 48 % of 8 x 150 kW) then the transformers, switchgear and number of rectifier modules could be the same. Otherwise, no. The amounts of copper, steel and silicon will be proportional to the peak capability of the installation. I am aware that an 8 x 150 kW station will not supply 150 kW to 8 cars simultaneously. But the principle stands.

8 stall "150 kW" (nominally 144 kW) stations and 8 stall 72 kW stations are typically connected to a 500 kVA transformer. 8 150 kW stalls are connected to 4 144 kW Supercharger cabinets in a 25/50/75/100 dynamic sharing configuration. 8 72 kW stalls are also connected to 4 144 kW cabinets in a 50/50 split configuration. The max theoretical output of both types of stations are, as you said, 576 kW.

 

[303JeffB]

The capacity of an 8 x 72 kW station is 576 kW. If the 8 x 150 kW station is limited to 48 % of 8 x 150 kW) then the transformers, switchgear and number of rectifier modules could be the same. Otherwise, no. The amounts of copper, steel and silicon will be proportional to the peak capability of the installation. I am aware that an 8 x 150 kW station will not supply 150 kW to 8 cars simultaneously. But the principle stands.

At an Urban station, pedestals are paired, and each pedestal is limited to 72kW, or 144 kW/Pair.

A 150 kW V2 station, also pairs pedestals, but the 150 kW is shared by the pedestals. If one pedestal is unoccupied, the other can pull up to the full 150 kW, but two combined are limited to 150 kW, so each pair has a peak capacity of 150kW.

So, the peak capacity of an 8 stall Urban Station (8 X 72 kW = 576 kW) and an 8 stall 150 kW Station (4 pairs X 150 kW/pair = 600 kW) are essentially identical.

Sorry - I was working on this post while "Big Earl" was posting the same clarification...

 

[cpa]

Back on the thread title:

Tesla needs to become a viable going concern. I still believe that despite its war chest, Tesla will have to start showing consistent profits in addition to positive cash flow. The money will eventually run out, so Tesla will need to generate enough cash from operations to stay in business. I cannot say when this scenario will come about, or even if it will. Certainly, I do not wish it to occur. But the fact remains: Eventually Tesla is going to have to make profits.

The Supercharger network is a plum among the EV infrastructure establishment. These questions come to mind, with my thoughts about the answers:

(1) Will free, unlimited Supercharging continue? I think it will be a limited promotional item once the Model Y and pickup are manufactured. It may stay for the high-end S and X and the roadster. But most sales of the 3, Y, and pick-up will have paid Supercharging at costs of electricity plus a margin to pay for maintenance and repair.

(2) Will Tesla continue to expand the network in another 4-5 years, once 85-90% of their sales territory have Superchargers? Expansion will slow down quite considerably. There will be more expansion of existing locations to double or triple the stalls--perhaps not necessarily at current locations, but within a small radius--but a lot less infilling of cross-country routes or secondary highways.

(3) Will Tesla sell or partner its network with others? I think this is quite possible. The costs to maintain and repair must be expensive, since these are publicly-used, and more subject to damage, misuse, and abuse than personally-owned equipment. Once a vast nationwide network of L3 EVSE is out there, it might make more sense for Tesla to contract with a major player in that industry for all administrative functions.

(4) Will Supercharging change as battery chemistry evolves? I have no idea about this. Superchargers started at 90kW. Then they increased to 120kW. Then they increased to 150kW, which includes the 72kW urban chargers. Now they are coming out with version 3 which is even faster. Retrofitting existing locations for new technology would be very, very expensive.

(5) Will L3 charging facilities change? I think this is the most likely thing to change. As more and more BEVs hit the market, there will be the need to have L3 charging almost as ubiquitous as the corner mini-mart and gas station. Will Tesla jump into the fray? As long as there are multiple L3 standards, I highly doubt it. I don't think the corner mini-mart wants to have 10 stations with three different standards. I can see travel plazas like Kettleman City along the interstates that would cater to all the standards, much like the locations today that have all sorts of amenities for truckers and long-distance travelers like Flying J, Loves, and the rest. Gasoline and passenger vehicle diesel in the front, and trucker diesel in the rear.

 

[Firedog7881]

Back on the thread title:

Tesla needs to become a viable going concern. I still believe that despite its war chest, Tesla will have to start showing consistent profits in addition to positive cash flow. The money will eventually run out, so Tesla will need to generate enough cash from operations to stay in business. I cannot say when this scenario will come about, or even if it will. Certainly, I do not wish it to occur. But the fact remains: Eventually Tesla is going to have to make profits.

The Supercharger network is a plum among the EV infrastructure establishment. These questions come to mind, with my thoughts about the answers:

(1) Will free, unlimited Supercharging continue? I think it will be a limited promotional item once the Model Y and pickup are manufactured. It may stay for the high-end S and X and the roadster. But most sales of the 3, Y, and pick-up will have paid Supercharging at costs of electricity plus a margin to pay for maintenance and repair.

(2) Will Tesla continue to expand the network in another 4-5 years, once 85-90% of their sales territory have Superchargers? Expansion will slow down quite considerably. There will be more expansion of existing locations to double or triple the stalls--perhaps not necessarily at current locations, but within a small radius--but a lot less infilling of cross-country routes or secondary highways.

(3) Will Tesla sell or partner its network with others? I think this is quite possible. The costs to maintain and repair must be expensive, since these are publicly-used, and more subject to damage, misuse, and abuse than personally-owned equipment. Once a vast nationwide network of L3 EVSE is out there, it might make more sense for Tesla to contract with a major player in that industry for all administrative functions.

(4) Will Supercharging change as battery chemistry evolves? I have no idea about this. Superchargers started at 90kW. Then they increased to 120kW. Then they increased to 150kW, which includes the 72kW urban chargers. Now they are coming out with version 3 which is even faster. Retrofitting existing locations for new technology would be very, very expensive.

(5) Will L3 charging facilities change? I think this is the most likely thing to change. As more and more BEVs hit the market, there will be the need to have L3 charging almost as ubiquitous as the corner mini-mart and gas station. Will Tesla jump into the fray? As long as there are multiple L3 standards, I highly doubt it. I don't think the corner mini-mart wants to have 10 stations with three different standards. I can see travel plazas like Kettleman City along the interstates that would cater to all the standards, much like the locations today that have all sorts of amenities for truckers and long-distance travelers like Flying J, Loves, and the rest. Gasoline and passenger vehicle diesel in the front, and trucker diesel in the rear.

my $0.02,
1) not sustainable. Unlimited will need to slow, we’re seeing this in the used inventory coming directly from Tesla.
2) Agreed. We’ll see V3 upgrades at critical points in the system and urban everywhere, because as has been said- if we’re plugging in everywhere we stop, home, work, store then we don’t need fast, just to top off.
3) I really really really hope not because the service upkeep would be horrible as it would be all about cutting costs to make a profit on the SC network, which isn’t the intent.
4) see answer 2
5) gas stations already have 3 different standards at each pump, regular, plus and best/platinum/whatever you want to call it. What someone needs to do is build a charging station that includes all three cables and the driver just picks up one and the station does the rest, same experience as today you pick which octane you want.

 

[dgatwood]

My original post was made in a thread from a SF Bay Area supercharging thread.

Do you have data showing that only 1/3 of recent installs are urban chargers?

I just counted all of the core Bay Area chargers, including those in construction. Can you believe there’s over 50+ stations operating or in construction? That’s just core Bay Area.
60% of these SCs are urban charging stations. And all of the newer ones in the East Bay are urban chargers.

And you'll notice that at least in the South Bay, with few exceptions (Los Gatos), they're rarely more than half full, even when the full V2 superchargers are completely full with two or three or four cars waiting. It's almost like people would rather play roulette and hope that they get a pair to themselves, or at least end up beside somebody who didn't just get there, rather than be capped at half charge speed.

IMO, the urban SCs are a mistake, and upgrading all the Bay Area superchargers to V3 should be a top priority for Tesla. The V2 supercharger reliability (including the urban version) is just too poor, and the lines are just too long.

 

[cpa]

gas stations already have 3 different standards at each pump, regular, plus and best/platinum/whatever you want to call it. What someone needs to do is build a charging station that includes all three cables and the driver just picks up one and the station does the rest, same experience as today you pick which octane you want.

Good point. I hadn't thought of that.

 

[mociaf9]

gas stations already have 3 different standards at each pump, regular, plus and best/platinum/whatever you want to call it. What someone needs to do is build a charging station that includes all three cables and the driver just picks up one and the station does the rest, same experience as today you pick which octane you want.

Pumps at gas stations all have a single, standardized connector design, which is why people occasionally do something really dumb like fill up their gasoline tank with diesel, or vice versa. Picking octanes doesn't have a great EV analog as all electricity is the same, but the best is probably that it would be like lowering the charging rate because your car couldn't take the station's max power.

 

[Firedog7881]

Pumps at gas stations all have a single, standardized connector design, which is why people occasionally do something really dumb like fill up their gasoline tank with diesel, or vice versa. Picking octanes doesn't have a great EV analog as all electricity is the same, but the best is probably that it would be like lowering the charging rate because your car couldn't take the station's max power.

I like your diesel analogy better, and if you end up putting diesel in your gasoline car there is something wrong with you as the nozzle for diesel is much larger, partly for higher flow rate but also to differentiate between the two.
I know the public, in general, are idiots, I do live with a high concentration here in Florida, however I think we could get by with 3 different standards, I hope we could do that.

 

[KJD]

my $0.02,
5) gas stations already have 3 different standards at each pump, regular, plus and best/platinum/whatever you want to call it. What someone needs to do is build a charging station that includes all three cables and the driver just picks up one and the station does the rest, same experience as today you pick which octane you want.

OK I agree that charging up an EV should be easier than it is and a charge station with 3 nozzles would accomplish that.

There are however a few problems with implementing that. CHAdeMO is already pretty much a dying standard. (Sorry LEAF owners).
It appears to me that Tesla and CCS will be the only two things that matter a year from now. Everyone except Nissan is already on CCS so it's just a matter of time before reality hits.

One complication is that CCS in North America is NOT the same as CCS in Europe. They are different animals and people often assume they are the same. This means that the solution used in the EU by Tesla will not work in North America unless they change it.

A while back one supplier built a 2 nozzle machine and displayed it at a show. It seems like it had CHAdeMO and Tesla on the same machine with 2 different cords. By the end of the first day the machine was gone and word was that Tesla told them in no un certain terms to remove it or else. I also read that they got the Tesla connector by chopping up a Tesla CHAdeMO adapter.