Every time I start considering Tesla's upcoming debt obligations and the effect they will have on Tesla's financials, I find that I don't fully understand it. I'd like to enlist some help from those with knowledge about how these obligations work and how Tesla is likely to fulfill them. I would appreciate some input from anyone who can walk me through how these will affect Tesla. I'm guessing @luvb2b and @neroden could provide some helpful commentary on this. It seems likely to me that the stock will be above $360 by March 2019. It is very unlikely to be above $560 by November 2018. What happens in the situation where the stock is below or above these levels when the obligations come due? My understanding is that if the stock is above these conversion levels, stock is issued at the conversion price, so there is dilution. How much effect would the dilution have? If the stock price is below these conversion levels, what is Tesla likely to do to handle the obligation? What do you think Tesla will do regarding the prom. note of $100M due in August this year and the term loan of $157M due in December? Those seem small enough to simply pay off, particularly if Tesla is not doing a raise this year. How much money is still available for Tesla to access through lines of credit?
Tesla's Upcoming Debt (12 Months)
Type Maturity Size Conv. Price
Convert (SC) 11/2018 $230M $560.6
Convert (TM) 3/2019 $920M $359.8
Type Maturity Size
Prom. Note (SC) 8/2018 $100M
Term Loan (SC) 12/2018 $157M
Tesla's Upcoming Debt (12 Months)
Type Maturity Size Conv. Price
Convert (SC) 11/2018 $230M $560.6
Convert (TM) 3/2019 $920M $359.8
Type Maturity Size
Prom. Note (SC) 8/2018 $100M
Term Loan (SC) 12/2018 $157M