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Tesla's Upcoming Debt Obligations (12 Months)
- Thread starter bdy0627
- Start date
I don't believe Tesla would use the higher conversion rate clauses unless it really had to. They're basically designed for emergency liquidity. As such I'm pretty sure the SolarCity November 2018 bond is just getting paid off -- there is very clearly plenty of cash for that. Also, if TESLA is over $423 in November, odds are it'll be over $360 in March and they'll expect the March 2018s to convert.
Direct Leases go to Warehouse agreement, and Finished inventory (in transit, not leased) goes into Credit Agreement. Not sure where you see direct leases counted as collateral for credit agreement. Feel free to point out where it says that.
I do not. That's the point. Produced vehicles provide some liquidity as Finished Inventory under the ABL or as a leased vehicle under the WH agreement, but never under both simultaneously as initially asserted:
They have $542 million in uncommited non-recourse loan accessible under their line of credit, and another $763 million uncommitted under the Warehouse Agr eement (much of which is probably going to be accessible as they produce more cars).
Tesla's Upcoming Debt Obligations (12 Months)
The duplication of potential liquidity for the same cars under those two agreements was subsequently acknowledged. Tesla's Upcoming Debt Obligations (12 Months)Tesla's Upcoming Debt Obligations (12 Months)
What is your issue?
Luvb2b estimates about half that.
q2-q4 2018 financial projections
As does SmackCheck
Smack Check on Twitter
What are they missing?
Incremental, brian, what I said was incremental. Words matter. If you start with -596,974 in profit for a quarter (that's a loss) and go to 513996 in profit for a quarter (that's a profit), the incremental profit is 1110970.
Actually, luvb2b is estimating the incremental profit from 1H 2018 to 2H 2018 to be about 2 billion dollars, now that I check it.
I think I mentioned before that I often do analysis in terms of deltas (increments) from a previous steady state. It avoids recalculating the messier bits of the financials where I don't think they're going to change materially.
Actually, luvb2b is estimating the incremental profit from 1H 2018 to 2H 2018 to be about 2 billion dollars, now that I check it.
I think I mentioned before that I often do analysis in terms of deltas (increments) from a previous steady state. It avoids recalculating the messier bits of the financials where I don't think they're going to change materially.
Agreed. A comparative adjective lacking context, particularly one like "incremental" without a temporal or numeric reference, is ambiguous.
The smack check post is pretty good. I do wish he hid gridlines in excel tho
LUV, any thoughts on Munster's Q3 GAAP loss forecast of $3.15 (546M)? That's quite different than your forecast. He cites tariffs and lower gross margins on model 3. His Q2 loss projection is $3.09, so pretty close to your estimate.
Tesla Preview: Bumps Remain, but Trend Is Positive | Loup Ventures
Tesla Preview: Bumps Remain, but Trend Is Positive | Loup Ventures
my understanding is they try to be conservative when modeling, but a 3.15 gaap loss for q3 had better be overly conservative.
i would point out there are several inconsistencies in the article, for example at one point gaap numbers are compared to non-gaap street estimates for this quarter, or there's a typo.
another inconsistency is as you quoted they cite lower gross margins on the 3, but then in the next paragraph talk about "profit yields" increasing due to production increases.
i would say the piece is maybe hastily written and not properly checked over. remember loup ventures is actually a vc shop, and covering public companies is mostly a means of raising mind share for their primary tech-based vc business.
most of the sensible approaches i have seen to estimating earnings are similar to what i have. but that's probably due to my personal bias of what i feel is sensible.
i would point out there are several inconsistencies in the article, for example at one point gaap numbers are compared to non-gaap street estimates for this quarter, or there's a typo.
another inconsistency is as you quoted they cite lower gross margins on the 3, but then in the next paragraph talk about "profit yields" increasing due to production increases.
i would say the piece is maybe hastily written and not properly checked over. remember loup ventures is actually a vc shop, and covering public companies is mostly a means of raising mind share for their primary tech-based vc business.
most of the sensible approaches i have seen to estimating earnings are similar to what i have. but that's probably due to my personal bias of what i feel is sensible.
How do inventory write offs work in terms of the profit/loss? For example, when Tesla switches to a different component? Do they go to automotive costs? Or sg&a? How about penalties for not making pre agreed purchase agreements due to slower ramp off? Where would those go? Is it possible that’s part of the overly conservative estimations for q3?
Write-downs/offs are charged to the classification in which the asset is deployed.
Cost of automotive sales revenues also includes adjustments to warranty expense and charges to write down the carrying value of our inventory when it exceeds its estimated net realizable value and to provide for obsolete and on-hand inventory in excess of forecasted demand.
Same principle
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