Here is a screenshot that shows how VINs are not assigned sequentially. For example, 10,955 was assigned in May and 8,155 in June. So, no surprise there. One conclusion we can draw from this is that they produced less than 18,555 Model Y so far which is as expected. I think they must be producing around 400 Model Y per day considering the peak rate of GA4 was 450/day in the past. GA4 is General Assembly Line 4 which is the famous tent they have built to accelerate Model 3 production. They have been using GA4 for all Model Y production so far. GA5, which will be the new dedicated Model Y general assembly line is expected to go online in early July. That's my guess. After that, I would expect production to ramp up very quickly. To give you an idea, this is what happened with Model 3 production:
- Q4 2017: 2,425
- Q1 2018: 9,766 << This is the equivalent for Model Y production in Q2 2020 but Model Y is ahead by about 4,000 units. I expect 13,900 units produced in Q2.
- Q2 2018: 28,578
- Q3 2018: 53,239
- Q4 2018: 61,394