Ghanziang
Member
So 3 out of the 4 Model Y's in Colorado will be blue. And here I thought I was going to have a unique color. 
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Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet
- Thread starter Troy
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- Model Y order tracker survey
jimmym1981
Member
For me, I ordered FSD before the price went up so I can see how more advanced (or not) it is by the time delivery happens. I figured give Elon a solid 6 months to come through with some new features. Then I can decide to keep it or take it off beforehand.
Poncherelly
Member
Has TESLA confirmed that reservation prices won't change come delivery? I've asked this question everywhere but no one has responded with any confirmation that a reservation has locked in our price.
jimmym1981
Member
My understanding (from word on the M3’s) that as long as you do not edit your config they will honor your price that you received on your reservation.
Of course, if I cancel my FSD, I’ll have to chalk up whatever the price difference changed in the Y from now to then. Guess if the Y goes up 2k I’ll stick with it and be ok paying 4K in the end for FSD.
Only time will tell...
Poncherelly
Member
This makes my day
let's hope it holds firm. Now I just need to get a handle on when I'll be getting that call saying their building my car .
jimmym1981
Member
This makes my day
I'm with you 100% on that and my fingers are crossed as well. For me, an AWD Tesla Model Y for 52K is ridiculously cheap for what we are getting (from the pics I'm seeing) compared to the higher end market right now. We leased a 2019 Volvo XC40 as our small SUV and the sticker on that was around 46K. Don't get me wrong, its a great car and the tech is great, but I cannot wait to trade it in July and wait for the Y to come out. I personally think Elon has been sandbagging the Y and not hyping it up as much to keep the Model 3 sales high (which he appears to be doing quite well.
Poncherelly
Member
For sure. I had a Q5 and then a Q7 and both were equally priced. If the Y is similar in size to the Q5 (probably be a little smaller), then it will work well as our family car now that the kids are out of car seats. I would have loved to get the X, but I just can't afford it.
Here in Canada the prices are a little higher ... for example a Blue, dual motor, long range with upgraded rims costs us $85K which lines up to the Audi's at the time I bought them ... but form a technology perspective the TESLA is just a better car. That and the environmental aspect to do my small part to leave something for my kids to grow up in a cleaner world.
bchan911
Member
@Troy your spreadsheet is very outdated. Could you update the form please? Or perhaps you would like some help maintaining the project? I think your focus is on the Model 3 based on your website, so I don't mind pitching in .
With deliveries coming soon, it would be cool to track some real-time data!
Cheers!
.With deliveries coming soon, it would be cool to track some real-time data!
Cheers!
@bchan911,
• I updated Autopilot options. "None" is not an option anymore. It's either "Autopilot included" or "Full Sef Driving". I changed all entries with "None" to "Autopilot included".
• I removed 18" wheels and changed all entries with 18" wheels to 19".
• I removed the LR RWD version and changed all LR RWD entries to LR AWD.
Let me know if you see another issue. I will add a delivery date column as soon as people start getting delivery dates.
• I updated Autopilot options. "None" is not an option anymore. It's either "Autopilot included" or "Full Sef Driving". I changed all entries with "None" to "Autopilot included".
• I removed 18" wheels and changed all entries with 18" wheels to 19".
• I removed the LR RWD version and changed all LR RWD entries to LR AWD.
Let me know if you see another issue. I will add a delivery date column as soon as people start getting delivery dates.
Hi Troy,
Thanks for maintaining the tracking spreadsheet but I think it would have been better to leave the LR RWD orders as is since we are in limbo and don't know what will happen to our orders
Hi, @leafian. I'm glad you are holding out hope for an RWD version despite the odds. I have now changed only your entry from "Long Range AWD" to "Long Range". You can change it to AWD using the form if you want.
This screenshot is from the 10-K yesterday on 13 Feb 2020 here. It doesn't look like Tesla is not going to make an RWD Model Y anytime soon but if this changes, I will add that option to the form again.
This screenshot is from the 10-K yesterday on 13 Feb 2020 here. It doesn't look like Tesla is not going to make an RWD Model Y anytime soon but if this changes, I will add that option to the form again.
I agree with leafian the initial LR RWD entry should not have been changed until Tesla officially responds.
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I have looked at the numbers and it looks like Tesla will not only skip the RWD Model Y, but they will also have to discontinue the Model 3 SR+ at Fremont (not in Shanghai) because the Fremont factory doesn't have enough production capacity to support all trim levels. In other words, all Model 3/Y at Fremont will be AWD. Let me explain:
1) The screenshot below is from Tesla's Q4 2019 update letter on 29 Jan 2020 here. It says the current Model 3/Y production capacity is 400K/year but it will reach 500K/year in mid-2020. The table also shows 90K/year Model S/X. Therefore, in mid-2020, Fremont will reach 590K/year production capacity. To me, that looks like peak production and I wouldn't expect an increase in the future because peak production at the NUMMI factory was 429K/year. 590K/year would be already a huge improvement over the previous peak level when the same factory was operated by Toyota and GM.
2) Now let's look at how many AWD/P Model 3s Tesla sells per year because they will sell at least the same amount of AWD/P Model Ys too. Tesla delivered 92,620 Model 3s in Q4 2019 and based on my Model 3 Survey here, 30.5% of those were Model 3 SR+ and 69.5% were AWD/P. That means, they delivered 92,620*0,695= 64,371 AWD/P Model 3s in Q4 2019. Therefore Tesla needs 64,371*4= 257,484 AWD/P Model 3s per year. Assuming they need the same number of AWD/P Model Ys, that would be 515K/year.
Therefore I think when things settle down, the Fremont factory will make 240K/year AWD/P Model 3s and 260K/year AWD/P Model Ys. They don't have any capacity left at Fremont for any RWD Model 3 or Y. That's how the situation looks to me.
1) The screenshot below is from Tesla's Q4 2019 update letter on 29 Jan 2020 here. It says the current Model 3/Y production capacity is 400K/year but it will reach 500K/year in mid-2020. The table also shows 90K/year Model S/X. Therefore, in mid-2020, Fremont will reach 590K/year production capacity. To me, that looks like peak production and I wouldn't expect an increase in the future because peak production at the NUMMI factory was 429K/year. 590K/year would be already a huge improvement over the previous peak level when the same factory was operated by Toyota and GM.
2) Now let's look at how many AWD/P Model 3s Tesla sells per year because they will sell at least the same amount of AWD/P Model Ys too. Tesla delivered 92,620 Model 3s in Q4 2019 and based on my Model 3 Survey here, 30.5% of those were Model 3 SR+ and 69.5% were AWD/P. That means, they delivered 92,620*0,695= 64,371 AWD/P Model 3s in Q4 2019. Therefore Tesla needs 64,371*4= 257,484 AWD/P Model 3s per year. Assuming they need the same number of AWD/P Model Ys, that would be 515K/year.
Therefore I think when things settle down, the Fremont factory will make 240K/year AWD/P Model 3s and 260K/year AWD/P Model Ys. They don't have any capacity left at Fremont for any RWD Model 3 or Y. That's how the situation looks to me.
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I have looked at the numbers and it looks like Tesla will not only skip the RWD Model Y, but they will also have to discontinue the Model 3 SR+ at Fremont (not in Shanghai) because the Fremont factory doesn't have enough production capacity to support all trim levels. In other words, all Model 3/Y at Fremont will be AWD. Let me explain:
1) The screenshot below is from Tesla's Q4 2019 update letter on 29 Jan 2020 here. It says the current Model 3/Y production capacity is 400K/year but it will reach 500K/year in mid-2020. The table also shows 90K/year Model S/X. Therefore, in mid-2020, Fremont will reach 590K/year production capacity. To me, that looks like peak production and I wouldn't expect an increase in the future because peak production at the NUMMI factory was 429K/year. 590K/year would be already a huge improvement over the previous peak level when the same factory was operated by Toyota and GM.
2) Now let's look at how many AWD/P Model 3s Tesla sells per year because they will sell at least the same amount of AWD/P Model Ys too. Tesla delivered 92,620 Model 3s in Q4 2019 and based on my Model 3 Survey here, 30.5% of those were Model 3 SR+ and 69.5% were AWD/P. That means, they delivered 92,620*0,695= 64,371 AWD/P Model 3s in Q4 2019. Therefore Tesla needs 64,371*4= 257,484 AWD/P Model 3s per year. Assuming they need the same number of AWD/P Model Ys, that would be 515K/year.
Therefore I think when things settle down, the Fremont factory will make 240K/year AWD/P Model 3s and 260K/year AWD/P Model Ys. They don't have any capacity left at Fremont for any RWD Model 3 or Y. That's how the situation looks to me.
It took Tesla 2.5 years to ramp to 95k M3s. While it should be shorter, I don't think Freemont will be making more than 50k MY per Q by the end of this year.
So I look ahead to 2021. If the China LR RWD is legit, then that likely eases the burden on Freemont as well and gives them a little more room, call it 40k a year that Fremont no longer makes for China (by the end of 2020). That means you have demand for 320,000 M3 (220 AWD, 100 SR+) based on rough extrapolation from Q4 2019. I think that feels a little light as demand should grow organically from here on out, so lets say 350k.
That leaves 150k for MY in 2020. By that point there is probably demand for 300k+, so they will still be short.
I think the more likely scenario is that they bump prices up a bit across the board to trim demand until they can get Giga Berlin up to speed to handle the EU M3 demand.
dennis
Model S Plaid
It's not the same factory. Tesla has had approval from the city of Fremont to almost double the 5.3M sq ft they inherited from NUMMI. Plus they have a lot more automation, including the two automated Storage and Retrieval Systems. Those have a small square footage footprint but are 12 bays high to store pallets of parts. That is how space was created for the Model Y BIW5 line.
If Tesla is going to continue to sell SR+ in the US, which of course they are because it captures the entry level buyer, they will produce it in the US. There is no way they put a factory in China to build cars for the US. It's counter to everything Elon has been saying about the need for local production to improve logistics and reduce tariffs and other costs.
What is more likely is that all Model 3 production for Asia will be moved to Giga Shanghai. Tesla has already applied to build Model 3 LR (non-AWD) in China. I expect AWD to be next. With the Giga Shanghai expansion for Model Y already underway, it is likely that Model Y's for Asia will never be built in Fremont.
Finally, we have Giga Berlin which is supposed to come online mid-2020 for Model Y production. An open question is whether Model Y will be released in Europe before it can be produced at Giga Berlin.
When all of this comes together in 2021 Tesla will be building 3/Y for Asia in Asia, Y for Europe in Europe, and 3/Y for the US in the US. The remaining capacity at Fremont will build S/X for worldwide consumption and Model 3 for Europe until Giga Berlin can be expanded in 2022 to take that over.
Nobody suggested this.
They won't after Q2 2020 because 500K/year 3/Y prod capacity at Fremont is not even enough to cover US/EU demand for Model 3 LR AWD/P + Model Y LR AWD/P. They delivered 92,620*0,695= 64,371 AWD/P Model 3s in Q4 2019. Therefore they need 64,371*4= 257,484 AWD/P Model 3s per year.
bchan911
Member
Thanks @Troy this is awesome! Just some notes...
- Should you include the Performance & the Performance Upgrade option, since they are two separate options
- Missing the 21’’ Überturbine Wheels with the Performance Upgrade trim
- Would it be interesting to include an order date and a most recently edited date? There are speculations whether or not modifying your order affects your place in line?
- Like your Model 3 form, perhaps it would be interesting to add previous Tesla ownership to see if those reservation holders are getting earlier deliveries?
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