Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

[AdVanced]

When we get actual numbers for Y deliveries in March, presumably early in April, this will give us our first good estimate of the actual Orders for Y's.
From the Spreadsheet take Total number on spreadsheet/Number of Deliveries on spreadsheet and multiply by the number of actual deliveries in March.
Currently that is 466/47 x # Delivered. So if they deliver 2000 in March that would be 466/47*2000 = 19,830. Or if our sample batch is representative they will deliver 7.3% of the orders in March. So 2,000 delivered would be 7.3% of the total ordered. 19.830.
What is wrong with this? It does not seem to pass the sensible test.

I did an analysis in another thread, Tracking Model Y orders, comparing the Model 3 tracking sheet versus MY preorders. From that I found there were 16,000 (actually a between 17,000 and 18,000) pre-orders.

647 is the current tracking spreadsheet number and is much more what I expected. Based on the 1.2%, I'm estimating round 54,000 preorders. That's at least when comparing to the Model 3 tracking.

For deliveries, 47/647 are reporting delivery for March = 7%. 7% of the 54,000 = 3,780 preorders filled in March. At least that's my skewed educated guess based on the data we have.

The challenge and reason it's skewed is because of all the options Tesla cherry picked for delivery. Had to be performance (possibly -Gemini Wheels?) or LRAWD+Black Interior+Induction+FSD. Almost 4,000 may seem low but that's astonishing given they are 6 months ahead of schedule and are still producing and delivering Model 3s. They are also probably preparing a lot of the other configs currently. If they complete that many orders, they'll report ~257,040,000 in revenue (Averaged at 68,000pv).

Edit: Looks like I was at almost 7.3% as well, not 7%. so ~3,888 delivers w/ ~264.3m in revenue.

 

[willow_hiller]

I did an analysis in another thread, Tracking Model Y orders, comparing the Model 3 tracking sheet versus MY preorders. From that I found there were 16,000 (actually a between 17,000 and 18,000) pre-orders.

647 is the current tracking spreadsheet number and is much more what I expected. Based on the 1.2%, I'm estimating round 54,000 preorders. That's at least when comparing to the Model 3 tracking.

For deliveries, 47/647 are reporting delivery for March = 7%. 7% of the 54,000 = 3,780 preorders filled in March. At least that's my skewed educated guess based on the data we have.

The challenge and reason it's skewed is because of all the options Tesla cherry picked for delivery. Had to be performance (possibly -Gemini Wheels?) or LRAWD+Black Interior+Induction+FSD. Almost 4,000 may seem low but that's astonishing given they are 6 months ahead of schedule and are still producing and delivering Model 3s. They are also probably preparing a lot of the other configs currently. If they complete that many orders, they'll report ~257,040,000 in revenue (Averaged at 68,000pv).

Edit: Looks like I was at almost 7.3% as well, not 7%. so ~3,888 delivers w/ ~264.3m in revenue.

Is this tracker publicized on any other website? It may make sense to adjust your estimates by the increase in TMC members from 2018 to today. I imagine the Model Y spreadsheet might contain a slightly higher sample of all orders compared to the Model 3 tracker based on that metric.

On the other hand, there was a lot more enthusiasm around tracking Model 3 orders than there seems to be around the Y, so that might lower the sample size. Hmmm...

 

[AdVanced]

Is this tracker publicized on any other website? It may make sense to adjust your estimates by the increase in TMC members from 2018 to today. I imagine the Model Y spreadsheet might contain a slightly higher sample of all orders compared to the Model 3 tracker based on that metric.

On the other hand, there was a lot more enthusiasm around tracking Model 3 orders than there seems to be around the Y, so that might lower the sample size. Hmmm...

The sheet for the Y has been posted to Reddit a few times and may be on other Forums. Troy's also active on Twitter and likely posted it there.

It'd be challenging to update the sheet with any value on the member increase. Most folks that would post are going to order a trim, join the forum, follow that trim, and update the sheet if they see it. This is the first heavily active forum that shows up in a google search (what I did). Plus, those new members may or may not have added to the tracking sheet.

The other problem is if folks actually come back and fill out their confirmation or delivery dates afterwards. There were a lot of holes in the Model 3 sheet.

At any rate, it'll be interesting to see how accurate (or totally off) the data is after Q1 numbers are announced.

 

[K5TRX]

I think that he single most important variable:

Have you purchased a car directly from Tesla in the past?​

I think that is what we may all have in common.

 

[MikeDog77]

Good info, but to be honest I put my M3 stuff in the tracker and so did my friends. We were so excited and obsessed. I haven't even opened the MY sheet ever, so I think there is a certain excitement gap that is lacking for the Y. I am excited for my Y as well, just not the same as the 3.

 

[JohnCooper]

I did an analysis in another thread, Tracking Model Y orders, comparing the Model 3 tracking sheet versus MY preorders. From that I found there were 16,000 (actually a between 17,000 and 18,000) pre-orders.

647 is the current tracking spreadsheet number and is much more what I expected. Based on the 1.2%, I'm estimating round 54,000 preorders. That's at least when comparing to the Model 3 tracking.

For deliveries, 47/647 are reporting delivery for March = 7%. 7% of the 54,000 = 3,780 preorders filled in March. At least that's my skewed educated guess based on the data we have.

The challenge and reason it's skewed is because of all the options Tesla cherry picked for delivery. Had to be performance (possibly -Gemini Wheels?) or LRAWD+Black Interior+Induction+FSD. Almost 4,000 may seem low but that's astonishing given they are 6 months ahead of schedule and are still producing and delivering Model 3s. They are also probably preparing a lot of the other configs currently. If they complete that many orders, they'll report ~257,040,000 in revenue (Averaged at 68,000pv).

Edit: Looks like I was at almost 7.3% as well, not 7%. so ~3,888 delivers w/ ~264.3m in revenue.

March 3rd. John C. Spreadsheet is now at 62/734, 8.4%. If Tesla manage to deliver 3,000 Ys in March that will indicate 35,000 existing orders. 4,000 would give 47,000 so much closer to your guess (sorry, estimate ). To confirm your 53,000 they need to deliver 4,651 in March. If they have been working hard since January I guess this is quite possible. If so it would indicate at least 4,000/month production. Getting up to 6,000 per month would mean that they would need 8 months or so clear their current orders. When we get a firm number for deliveries made in March we can get a good estimate. I am not sure that will make my delivery any quicker though, but it is entertaining.

 

[Troy]

I added another pre-saved filter that shows only entries with a delivery date. Currently, there are 4 out of 775.

• Filter views for entries with a Delivery Date
  
• Filter views for entries with a Delivery Confirmation Email

If you want, you can bookmark these links or use 'Data > Filter views' on the top menu of the spreadsheet. You can also filter or sort the sheet yourself. Here is a video about that.

I also added percentages. Currently, 66/775=8.5% of entries have a delivery confirmation email and 4/775=0.5% have a delivery date.

 

[jamesengy]

Thanks Troy this is awesome

 

[xtnvieira]

Just got a call from Tesla (Las Vegas number) because I had emailed a question about my account - they mentioned to me that Wave 2 of delivery emails will go out next week and they will be for White interior builds. He seemed pretty confident in that and he as quick to answer me when I asked. So, fingers crossed, that more data can be added to the spreadsheet soon.

 

[bchan911]

I added another pre-saved filter that shows only entries with a delivery date. Currently, there are 4 out of 775.

• Filter views for entries with a Delivery Date
  
• Filter views for entries with a Delivery Confirmation Email

If you want, you can bookmark these links or use 'Data > Filter views' on the top menu of the spreadsheet. You can also filter or sort the sheet yourself. Here is a video about that.

I also added percentages. Currently, 66/775=8.5% of entries have a delivery confirmation email and 4/775=0.5% have a delivery date.

Awesome! Do you think you could also add a column for VIN #s? That would be a pretty cool stat to track as well!

 

[Troy]

Hi, @bchan911. Can you talk more about why you would like a VIN column? Do you want to track production or do you want to know whether people have received their VINs? How about a Yes/No question about receiving VINs?

In the early days of Model 3 production people, including myself were tracking VINs. It was possible to estimate production with only a few hundred units error but then Tesla didn't like all the obsession with VINs and they mixed things up. They would leave lots of gaps and skip some VIN ranges and start using higher VINs but then they would go back and use lower VINs too but only some of them.

VINs are still non-sequential and they still leave gaps. For example, at the end of 2019, 458K Model 3s were produced but the highest VIN was 641K. VIN data on the Model 3 Tracker here is not very useful for calculating estimates for production. I stopped using it a year ago.

When Tesla started randomizing VINs, one disadvantage of having VINs in the Model 3 Tracker was that people who received low VINs would worry that they are getting an early production car. Let's say 4 months from now Tesla has produced 20K Model Y and the highest VIN at the time is 35K (because of the gaps) and some folks are getting VINs in the 5K-10K range. Naturally, most of these folks would worry that they have received an early production car that was sitting somewhere for 4 months in the sun.

Another problem is that people who see the 35K VINs would think that Tesla has produced 35K Model Y. Therefore there are advantages and disadvantages of having a VIN column. Some people will still worry about low VINs and some will confuse production with the highest VINs even if we don't have a VIN column. However, a VINs column could add too much unnecessary focus on VINs and most people won't know that VINs are not sequential. I'm not sure which option (yes/no question vs VIN numbers) would create a better experience for users.

 

[bchan911]

Hi, @bchan911. Can you talk more about why you would like a VIN column? Do you want to track production or do you want to know whether people have received their VINs? How about a Yes/No question about receiving VINs?

In the early days of Model 3 production people, including myself were tracking VINs. It was possible to estimate production with only a few hundred units error but then Tesla didn't like all the obsession with VINs and they mixed things up. They would leave lots of gaps and skip some VIN ranges and start using higher VINs but then they would go back and use lower VINs too but only some of them.

VINs are still non-sequential and they still leave gaps. For example, at the end of 2019, 458K Model 3s were produced but the highest VIN was 641K. VIN data on the Model 3 Tracker here is not very useful for calculating estimates for production. I stopped using it a year ago.

When Tesla started randomizing VINs, one disadvantage of having VINs in the Model 3 Tracker was that people who received low VINs would worry that they are getting an early production car. Let's say 4 months from now Tesla has produced 20K Model Y and the highest VIN at the time is 35K (because of the gaps) and some folks are getting VINs in the 5K-10K range. Naturally, most of these folks would worry that they have received an early production car that was sitting somewhere for 4 months in the sun.

Another problem is that people who see the 35K VINs would think that Tesla has produced 35K Model Y. Therefore there are advantages and disadvantages of having a VIN column. Some people will still worry about low VINs and some will confuse production with the highest VINs even if we don't have a VIN column. However, a VINs column could add too much unnecessary focus on VINs and most people won't know that VINs are not sequential. I'm not sure which option (yes/no question vs VIN numbers) would create a better experience for users.

Oh...I thought they were sequential...never mind than. No need for a column at all than. I was interested in tracking production #s.

 

[Troy]

When sorting the sheet, instead of using the small arrows that you see when you hover over column letters, I recommend using the top menu, 'Data > Filter views > Create new temporary filter'. Then you will see different arrows to sort. This method avoids the header row jumping around.

Because the file is locked to editing (to avoid trolls messing around), the regular sort function doesn't work well.

 

[ShowtimeJay]

Hi, everybody. Here are the links for this project:

• Google form to add or edit your data
• Google sheet to view all entries
• How to filter and sort: Youtube video
• You can reach me on Reddit or Twitter too if you have any questions or feedback about this project.

I got my VIN number does anyone know if there is a way to track its location? I’m in IL and got a Midnight Silver, FSD, performance model.

 

[bchan911]

@Troy might need to change the delivery confirmation e-mail column to Delivery Confirmation Contact. LOLz...looks like 2nd round of delivery confirmations are by text this time. ...Not exactly consistent are they...?

 

[spsheridan]

Model Y Tracker spreadsheet hits 1,000 entries. Thank you @Troy for creating, maintaining, and improving this valuable resource for us all!

 

[Electric Steve]

I received an email that starts with "Congratulations! Your Model Y is almost ready." but doesn't specify a delivery date. I was able to update my order with my drivers license and so on, but don't have a VIN.

I don't see a column in the spreadsheet where I can record that. As far as I can tell, "Delivery conf email" is for people who have a delivery date.

 

[spsheridan]

I received an email that starts with "Congratulations! Your Model Y is almost ready." but doesn't specify a delivery date. I was able to update my order with my drivers license and so on, but don't have a VIN.

I don't see a column in the spreadsheet where I can record that. As far as I can tell, "Delivery conf email" is for people who have a delivery date.

The e-mail comes first, then a delivery date, then a VIN. In your case, you'd enter the date when you received the Delivery Confirmation email, but you leave the Delivery Date and VIN columns blank. Enter the Delivery Date when you confirm what it is. The column in the spreadsheet for VIN is just to indicate whether you have one, not the actual VIN itself.

 

[Electric Steve]

The e-mail comes first, then a delivery date, then a VIN. In your case, you'd enter the date when you received the Delivery Confirmation email, but you leave the Delivery Date and VIN columns blank. Enter the Delivery Date when you confirm what it is. The column in the spreadsheet for VIN is just to indicate whether you have one, not the actual VIN itself.

Thanks for the prompt response. I updated my entry to reflect the date that I got the email. Hopefully, I'll soon receive another email (or maybe SMS) telling me to pick a date!

Do people normally get the undated email first and then get the date or do some just get the dated one?

 

[n.one.one]

The e-mail comes first, then a delivery date, then a VIN. In your case, you'd enter the date when you received the Delivery Confirmation email, but you leave the Delivery Date and VIN columns blank. Enter the Delivery Date when you confirm what it is. The column in the spreadsheet for VIN is just to indicate whether you have one, not the actual VIN itself.

I'm not 100% sure that's correct and it would be great if Troy would clarify what he wants. Here are the instructions for that column:

Delivery conf email
Enter the date you received an email or text message that asked you to confirm the dates you’re able to take delivery.​

The email I have gotten (and I believe the one that Electric Steve referred to) does not ask for what dates you are able to take delivery. It only asks you to populate certain information (address, DL, where you want to take delivery, etc). Here is the text from the email which is titled "Get Ready for Your Model Y Delivery".

Congratulations! Your Model Y is almost ready.
To receive priority delivery, please log into your Tesla Account and provide any remaining details:

• Delivery Location
• Registration
• Trade-in
• Payment Method

Once complete, we’ll schedule your Model Y for delivery when ready.
We’re excited to have Model Y join your home and be a part of your transition to sustainable energy.
Welcome to the Tesla family.​

Based on all of the above I have not entered the date I received this letter in the 'Delivery confirmation email' column.

Troy - It might be interesting to have a column for the 'Get Ready' email. I've seen questions posed in other threads where folks are curious about the time spread between this email and the Delivery confirmation email.