Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Well... I just picked up my Model Y (78320), Long Range All-Wheel Drive, Red Multi-Coat Paint, w/19’’ Gemini Wheels, All Black Premium Interior, Five Seat Interior, Autopilot, Full Self-Driving Capability, w/Tow Hitch.

I
arrived (Renton, WA) two hours early and they wen't even open yet. However, the door was unlocked, I walked in, and there sat the Store Leader Genny. She was super nice and gave me the keys to my new MY. I did a walk around and sat in it and entered all of my information in the computer.

And, as far as I could see, the exterior is really quite flawless, the
interior is excellent as well. The only two issues I found are, the drivers side passenger door did not close very easily (could be the newness or misalignment), however, the gaps are spot on. The other issue, and I even told the SA that it's probably within tolerances, is the drivers side top of the headlight is about 1/4" or 1/8" in higher than the frunk lid. I'm not that concerned about it, but Jose seemed to be bothered by it, more than me. So he took pictures of the headlight (and the door) and put those two things into the system.

The paperwork was very easy and since we already have an M3, there was no learning curb. The drive home (about an hour and half) was uneventful, the cameras calibrated, and I immediately put it into FSD. Once, I got home, I had a little trouble with setting up the Wi-Fi, but I know it was because of the distance from my router to the vehicle. I also, forgot about the pedestrian warning device, until I was backing up, and heard it and thought it was the heat pump. I had already purchased a bypass plug to well bypass it), but I like the sound. Interestingly enough, it doesn't seem to make any noise going forward?

I sincerely hope, everyone's delivery is all you hope for...
 
Hmmm ya no new orders or VINs in the last two days. You would think you would at least see one or two.

I see a bunch of VINs on Dec 1, three on Dec 2, and one today. One MYP, the rest LR (mix of tow, no tow).
You can sort by VIN date, descending (Data > Filter Views menu).

I downloaded the data and have been playing with it. Here is a plot of days until delivery vs order date.
18A81C84-9C0F-42AD-8513-8A8B9BB836C1.png
There is obviously some truncation at the end (orders not delivered yet), but looking at the full history made me feel better about possibly having to waiting a month or two...
 
  • Like
Reactions: seangoggin
I see a bunch of VINs on Dec 1, three on Dec 2, and one today. One MYP, the rest LR (mix of tow, no tow).
You can sort by VIN date, descending (Data > Filter Views menu).

I downloaded the data and have been playing with it. Here is a plot of days until delivery vs order date.
View attachment 614476
There is obviously some truncation at the end (orders not delivered yet), but looking at the full history made me feel better about possibly having to waiting a month or two...

nice.
 
Nerding out with the data some more, I also did a regression of days to delivery on car and order characteristics. I used only orders from May 1, 2020 (after delivery times level out) to September 30, 2020 (not so recent that many are still not delivered). Here are the results:
Code:
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =       932
-------------+----------------------------------   F(61, 870)      =      3.17
       Model |   58323.113        61  956.116607   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  262611.604       870  301.852418   R-squared       =    0.1817
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1244
       Total |  320934.717       931  344.720426   Root MSE        =    17.374

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            delivery_days |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              performance |   12.74784   4.490055     2.84   0.005     3.935233    21.56044
                      fsd |  -2.531619   1.338799    -1.89   0.059    -5.159273    .0960352
                white_int |   1.428309   1.322099     1.08   0.280    -1.166568    4.023185
                tow_hitch |   4.300699   1.345878     3.20   0.001     1.659151    6.942247
                          |
                    color |
      Deep Blue Metallic  |   4.375689   1.631864     2.68   0.007      1.17284    7.578539
Midnight Silver Metallic  |   1.496763   1.549327     0.97   0.334    -1.544092    4.537618
          Red Multi-Coat  |   1.732264   2.321584     0.75   0.456    -2.824295    6.288824
             Solid Black  |   1.083944   2.183176     0.50   0.620    -3.200963    5.368851
                          |
               days_to_q2 |   .4548672   .0786639     5.78   0.000      .300474    .6092604
               days_to_q3 |   .0485498    .022743     2.13   0.033     .0039123    .0931874
                          |
                   wheels |
                 20 inch  |  -1.119032   1.291963    -0.87   0.387    -3.654761    1.416696
                 21 inch  |  -16.30479   4.842879    -3.37   0.001    -25.80989   -6.799703
                          |
                    state | [omitted for brevity, see attachment if interested]
                          |
                    _cons |   32.19171   17.53327     1.84   0.067    -2.220739    66.60417
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So for the baseline LR Model Y in white with 19 inch wheels and black interior, you’ll expect to wait about 32 days (the “_cons” line). If you upgrade to performance, expect 12 more days (the “performance” line). Tow hitch adds about 4.3 days. FSD reduces time to delivery by about 2.5 days (maybe there is some small priority given?).

I added controls for days until end of Q2 (longer delays then) and days until end of Q3. In both cases, it seems there is an end of quarter delivery push. Ordering earlier in the quarter is correlated with longer waits, but moreso in Q2 than Q3. (No data used from Q1 or Q4).

Using this to predict days until delivery for orders in the sample and after (the red dots), you can see that there is still a lot of unexplained variation. On the other hand, I think it validates many of our “feelings” about things that affect wait time.
88B3A8DC-A588-4EA1-95B0-B5FB7436075C.png
 

Attachments

  • teslike-2020-12-04.txt
    6.6 KB · Views: 51
Nerding out with the data some more, I also did a regression of days to delivery on car and order characteristics. I used only orders from May 1, 2020 (after delivery times level out) to September 30, 2020 (not so recent that many are still not delivered). Here are the results:
Code:
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =       932
-------------+----------------------------------   F(61, 870)      =      3.17
       Model |   58323.113        61  956.116607   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  262611.604       870  301.852418   R-squared       =    0.1817
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1244
       Total |  320934.717       931  344.720426   Root MSE        =    17.374

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            delivery_days |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              performance |   12.74784   4.490055     2.84   0.005     3.935233    21.56044
                      fsd |  -2.531619   1.338799    -1.89   0.059    -5.159273    .0960352
                white_int |   1.428309   1.322099     1.08   0.280    -1.166568    4.023185
                tow_hitch |   4.300699   1.345878     3.20   0.001     1.659151    6.942247
                          |
                    color |
      Deep Blue Metallic  |   4.375689   1.631864     2.68   0.007      1.17284    7.578539
Midnight Silver Metallic  |   1.496763   1.549327     0.97   0.334    -1.544092    4.537618
          Red Multi-Coat  |   1.732264   2.321584     0.75   0.456    -2.824295    6.288824
             Solid Black  |   1.083944   2.183176     0.50   0.620    -3.200963    5.368851
                          |
               days_to_q2 |   .4548672   .0786639     5.78   0.000      .300474    .6092604
               days_to_q3 |   .0485498    .022743     2.13   0.033     .0039123    .0931874
                          |
                   wheels |
                 20 inch  |  -1.119032   1.291963    -0.87   0.387    -3.654761    1.416696
                 21 inch  |  -16.30479   4.842879    -3.37   0.001    -25.80989   -6.799703
                          |
                    state | [omitted for brevity, see attachment if interested]
                          |
                    _cons |   32.19171   17.53327     1.84   0.067    -2.220739    66.60417
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So for the baseline LR Model Y in white with 19 inch wheels and black interior, you’ll expect to wait about 32 days (the “_cons” line). If you upgrade to performance, expect 12 more days (the “performance” line). Tow hitch adds about 4.3 days. FSD reduces time to delivery by about 2.5 days (maybe there is some small priority given?).

I added controls for days until end of Q2 (longer delays then) and days until end of Q3. In both cases, it seems there is an end of quarter delivery push. Ordering earlier in the quarter is correlated with longer waits, but moreso in Q2 than Q3. (No data used from Q1 or Q4).

Using this to predict days until delivery for orders in the sample and after (the red dots), you can see that there is still a lot of unexplained variation. On the other hand, I think it validates many of our “feelings” about things that affect wait time.
View attachment 614494
This is so awesome!!! Thank you for this. Not sure I did this right but based on your data here is my projected delivery date!

Baseline: 32.19171
California: -2.087246
Days Before Quarter End: 3.3499362
Red Multi-Coat: 1.732264
Tow Hitch: 4.300699
White Interior: 1.428309
FSD: -2.531619
Performance: 12.74784


Order Date: 10/23/2020
Days To Delivery: 51.1318932
Estimated Delivery Date: 12/13/2020
 
This is so awesome!!! Thank you for this. Not sure I did this right but based on your data here is my projected delivery date!

Yep, that's the right approach!

One thing: After I posted I realized that 21 inch wheels and performance are controlled for separately (there were some "stealth" performance models without PUP), but are now linked. So, really for newly configured models (PUP required) you should add performance (12.74784) and subtract for the 21 inch wheels (-16.30479) so you come out a bit ahead actually.

Also, don't forget that there is a large margin of error! (In other words, don't get mad at me if your date passes. :D) There is a lot of unexplained variation in the regression (people reject VINs, don't get their paperwork finished soon, etc. to make it hard to predict).
 
Nerding out with the data some more, I also did a regression of days to delivery on car and order characteristics. I used only orders from May 1, 2020 (after delivery times level out) to September 30, 2020 (not so recent that many are still not delivered). Here are the results:
Code:
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =       932
-------------+----------------------------------   F(61, 870)      =      3.17
       Model |   58323.113        61  956.116607   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  262611.604       870  301.852418   R-squared       =    0.1817
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1244
       Total |  320934.717       931  344.720426   Root MSE        =    17.374

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            delivery_days |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              performance |   12.74784   4.490055     2.84   0.005     3.935233    21.56044
                      fsd |  -2.531619   1.338799    -1.89   0.059    -5.159273    .0960352
                white_int |   1.428309   1.322099     1.08   0.280    -1.166568    4.023185
                tow_hitch |   4.300699   1.345878     3.20   0.001     1.659151    6.942247
                          |
                    color |
      Deep Blue Metallic  |   4.375689   1.631864     2.68   0.007      1.17284    7.578539
Midnight Silver Metallic  |   1.496763   1.549327     0.97   0.334    -1.544092    4.537618
          Red Multi-Coat  |   1.732264   2.321584     0.75   0.456    -2.824295    6.288824
             Solid Black  |   1.083944   2.183176     0.50   0.620    -3.200963    5.368851
                          |
               days_to_q2 |   .4548672   .0786639     5.78   0.000      .300474    .6092604
               days_to_q3 |   .0485498    .022743     2.13   0.033     .0039123    .0931874
                          |
                   wheels |
                 20 inch  |  -1.119032   1.291963    -0.87   0.387    -3.654761    1.416696
                 21 inch  |  -16.30479   4.842879    -3.37   0.001    -25.80989   -6.799703
                          |
                    state | [omitted for brevity, see attachment if interested]
                          |
                    _cons |   32.19171   17.53327     1.84   0.067    -2.220739    66.60417
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So for the baseline LR Model Y in white with 19 inch wheels and black interior, you’ll expect to wait about 32 days (the “_cons” line). If you upgrade to performance, expect 12 more days (the “performance” line). Tow hitch adds about 4.3 days. FSD reduces time to delivery by about 2.5 days (maybe there is some small priority given?).

I added controls for days until end of Q2 (longer delays then) and days until end of Q3. In both cases, it seems there is an end of quarter delivery push. Ordering earlier in the quarter is correlated with longer waits, but moreso in Q2 than Q3. (No data used from Q1 or Q4).

Using this to predict days until delivery for orders in the sample and after (the red dots), you can see that there is still a lot of unexplained variation. On the other hand, I think it validates many of our “feelings” about things that affect wait time.
View attachment 614494
This is so great! Let me see how it works out based on my order:

Ordered 11/21, Current estimate is 12/19-12/31.


Baseline: 32.19171 +/- 17.53327
Performance: 12.74784 +/- 4.490055
PUP: -16.30479 +/- 4.842879
Blue: 4.375689 +/- 1.631864
No Tow: 0
White Int: 1.428309 +/- 1.322099
CO: -3.268567 +/- 17.67537
FSD: -2.531619 +/- 1.338799

Adds up to 28.638572 +/- 48.834336.

Hehe other than the error this looks pretty spot on for at least the beginning of the range Tesla gave me. 28-29 days after ordering would be 12/19-12/20!!!! Good job this is an impressive analysis.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Modulus1
Is there any evidence that shows changing your order after you’ve made a reservation resets your place in line? I’ve gone from performance to LR, back to performance. Original reservation date was 10/23. Settled on performance for the second time on 11/19. Just curious.
 
Nerding out with the data some more, I also did a regression of days to delivery on car and order characteristics. I used only orders from May 1, 2020 (after delivery times level out) to September 30, 2020 (not so recent that many are still not delivered). Here are the results:
Code:
      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =       932
-------------+----------------------------------   F(61, 870)      =      3.17
       Model |   58323.113        61  956.116607   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  262611.604       870  301.852418   R-squared       =    0.1817
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1244
       Total |  320934.717       931  344.720426   Root MSE        =    17.374

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            delivery_days |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              performance |   12.74784   4.490055     2.84   0.005     3.935233    21.56044
                      fsd |  -2.531619   1.338799    -1.89   0.059    -5.159273    .0960352
                white_int |   1.428309   1.322099     1.08   0.280    -1.166568    4.023185
                tow_hitch |   4.300699   1.345878     3.20   0.001     1.659151    6.942247
                          |
                    color |
      Deep Blue Metallic  |   4.375689   1.631864     2.68   0.007      1.17284    7.578539
Midnight Silver Metallic  |   1.496763   1.549327     0.97   0.334    -1.544092    4.537618
          Red Multi-Coat  |   1.732264   2.321584     0.75   0.456    -2.824295    6.288824
             Solid Black  |   1.083944   2.183176     0.50   0.620    -3.200963    5.368851
                          |
               days_to_q2 |   .4548672   .0786639     5.78   0.000      .300474    .6092604
               days_to_q3 |   .0485498    .022743     2.13   0.033     .0039123    .0931874
                          |
                   wheels |
                 20 inch  |  -1.119032   1.291963    -0.87   0.387    -3.654761    1.416696
                 21 inch  |  -16.30479   4.842879    -3.37   0.001    -25.80989   -6.799703
                          |
                    state | [omitted for brevity, see attachment if interested]
                          |
                    _cons |   32.19171   17.53327     1.84   0.067    -2.220739    66.60417
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So for the baseline LR Model Y in white with 19 inch wheels and black interior, you’ll expect to wait about 32 days (the “_cons” line). If you upgrade to performance, expect 12 more days (the “performance” line). Tow hitch adds about 4.3 days. FSD reduces time to delivery by about 2.5 days (maybe there is some small priority given?).

I added controls for days until end of Q2 (longer delays then) and days until end of Q3. In both cases, it seems there is an end of quarter delivery push. Ordering earlier in the quarter is correlated with longer waits, but moreso in Q2 than Q3. (No data used from Q1 or Q4).

Using this to predict days until delivery for orders in the sample and after (the red dots), you can see that there is still a lot of unexplained variation. On the other hand, I think it validates many of our “feelings” about things that affect wait time.
View attachment 614494

Add me to the fans of your work! Here's what I came up with:

Ordered on 11/13 with an adjustment on 11/20, so I used 11/20 as the order date.

Baseline: 32.19171
FSD: -2.531619
White Interior: 1.428309
Deep Blue: 4.375689
20" Wheels: -1.119032
CA: -2.087246
Days: 1.990542 (not sure if I did this right...)
Total: 34.24835
(Didn't include the errors because that's just no fun!)

So....... Are delivery centers open on Christmas? LOL
 
Picked up our LR AWD all base model (White/Black, Gemini, no tow, no FSD) on 12/3. Originally ordered on 9/10 because wanted to get it in before my wife’s lease ended (in January) and the order times being listed as 7-11 weeks. Was first matched to a VIN the first week of October, it was a 58xxx VIN. Asked to be unmatched because was way too early. Matched up again the last week of October, this time 62xxx, again asked to be unmatched. Got another text saying to pick up on 11/18, 67xxx VIN, but I was returning from an out of state trip and would be in a 2 week quarantine so couldn’t accept.

Finally our 4th and accepted VIN on 11/23. Scheduled delivery for 12/3 while I was on PTO, so was happy that I could take my time with delivery (though they ended up extending our kids virtual learning so didn’t matter). 72xxx VIN, so was super bummed that it was so slow and probably not going to get the latest batch of updates, so they weren’t there when we ordered, so couldn’t be that upset. A few days before the SA called to go over a few things and I asked her the build date and she said 11/15, so I was holding out hope.

Got to the center 10 minutes before, scanned a QR code at the door and answered a short 5-6 question minute survey. While I was waiting I took a look at some other Y’s that were waiting pickup (78xxx with induction that had the update, 71xxx that didn’t, 74xxx that didn’t, 76xxx that did). Waited a few minutes then the delivery staff unlocked the car, told me to take a look, and review the paperwork inside. Took a quick look over, didn’t see anything huge, got in, signed, moved in some new car seats, and drove off. In and out in less than 15 minutes.

Applied for the NJ rebate that same night and put on the vinyl center console and steering wheel wrap yesterday.

Outside of a 15 minute plug and pray issue with the first at home charging (wouldn’t click in and kept on making noises. Read that you have to push hard, but felt like I was going to put the charger halfway inside the car), the car is great.

a very small paint chip on the rear bumper where it meets the rear panel and a small nick in the steering wheel.

Our first Tesla buying experience was super pleasant and great considering these pandemic times.