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The «Full» in Full Self-Driving Capability

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I am just saying that he widely touted "billions of miles on AP2+ cars" actually don't mean as much when you consider the kind of data you get back from those.

What would you say the probability is that you aren't seeing a representative sample of what the general populace of cars might be sending back based on tweaks and roots you have done to get the data that you DO get? (your answer might be zero, which I would totally believe, but just curious what your take is on how sophisticated their ability might be to have different vehicles doing different things)
 
What would you say the probability is that you aren't seeing a representative sample of what the general populace of cars might be sending back based on tweaks and roots you have done to get the data that you DO get? (your answer might be zero, which I would totally believe, but just curious what your take is on how sophisticated their ability might be to have different vehicles doing different things)
There are two aspects to data collection. Mandatory (hardcoded triggers) and the campaigns (triggers uploaded to some cars).

I see the first easily. I have very good visibility into second ( I do not see how many results are sent back, but I see the conditions). As such even if 100% of the cars were getting the campaign triggers (and we know it does not happen) the triggers themselves are very limited and lately they started to really dial down the probabilities too.
 
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Is anyone else concerned that upgrading to the HW3 will set their development back in similar ways as to when they left MobileEye? I am failing in my search kung-fu this morning but I remember reading that part of Elon's explanation of why the new system is better is that it not only that it captures more frames/second but that the current system is forced to compress or focus on certain cameras at a time to keep up. If that is true it seems like they will need to rewrite a great deal to get benefit from the new data whilst not breaking what has been working so far.
 
Is anyone else concerned that upgrading to the HW3 will set their development back in similar ways as to when they left MobileEye? I am failing in my search kung-fu this morning but I remember reading that part of Elon's explanation of why the new system is better is that it not only that it captures more frames/second but that the current system is forced to compress or focus on certain cameras at a time to keep up. If that is true it seems like they will need to rewrite a great deal to get benefit from the new data whilst not breaking what has been working so far.
HW3 will have a different NN topology, but there should not be much hand coded interface SW involved. Karpathy has been developing the NN for HW3 for a while now. Further, the NN training does the heavy lifting from the same labeled training and test data.
 
Has anyone noticed that the description of FSD basically says something like what navigation does? You stil have to get in, tell it where you want to go and it figures out the optimal route. It doesn't say it will drive by itself to wherever you want to go it just figures out the optimal route so basically what navigation does.

Full Self-Driving Capability
All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go and your Tesla will figure out the optimal route.
Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval which may vary widely by jurisdiction.
 
Is anyone else concerned that upgrading to the HW3 will set their development back in similar ways as to when they left MobileEye? I am failing in my search kung-fu this morning but I remember reading that part of Elon's explanation of why the new system is better is that it not only that it captures more frames/second but that the current system is forced to compress or focus on certain cameras at a time to keep up. If that is true it seems like they will need to rewrite a great deal to get benefit from the new data whilst not breaking what has been working so far.
HW3 is completely compatible, it's just much faster. They are testing with it now and have been for months.Unless you have FSD you don't even need it and likely won't get it.
 
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It's kind of nice to see the whole FSD thing get a big dose of reality. I can actually imagine them delivering this thing now, i.e. handling some subset of intersections before the end of the year seems doable. The 2016 Autopilot page always read like complete nonsense.
 
The 2016 Autopilot page always read like complete nonsense.
Wasn't that MobileEye back then? I remember videos I watched in 2017 and the Model S could decipher lights, speed limits, and could center in a lane. I also recall the dismay of early, I guess it was AP2, that 'drove like a drunk 15 yr old".
I did a 50 mile trip today in the Model 3, it pretty much nailed it on NoA. It still has a nasty habit of wanting to move into the far left lane doing the speed limit. In this case it was a two lane Interstate (one direction of it). 2nd lane was passing lane/fast lane.
 
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Wasn't that MobileEye back then? I remember videos I watched in 2017 and the Model S could decipher lights, speed limits, and could center in a lane. I also recall the dismay of early, I guess it was AP2, that 'drove like a drunk 15 yr old".
I did a 50 mile trip today in the Model 3, it pretty much nailed it on NoA. It still has a nasty habit of wanting to move into the far left lane doing the speed limit. In this case it was a two lane Interstate (one direction of it). 2nd lane was passing lane/fast lane.

No. Clearly they are referring to the fanciful Autopilot 2 page from 2016 and that was months after MobilEye break-up.
 
Just a heads up:

Per Elon on Twitter regarding EAP/ FSD pricing:

In retrospect, lower price shouldn’t have been offered. Was done so because some simply couldn’t afford it. Prices revert to normal on Monday.

Invite to Early Access Program still valid for early adopters

FSD gets you free HW3 upgrade
 
Just a heads up - it does not unless you read Elon's tweets in super optimistic manner which historically has been the recipe for dashed hopes later.

He confirmed the information in the call which was Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript -- The Motley Fool
Great. And that will be roughly a 1000% increase in processing capability compared to the current hardware and so sounds good, a giant of crew despite being a bump, it costs about the same costs volume and car consumption are approximately the same as the current hardware, but it is a tenfold increment in frames per second and improved redundancy as well. But very importantly, very important to emphasize is that, the only thing that needs to change between the cars used today and cars produced in the second quarter of next year is swapping up the autopilot computer. And this is a simple change that takes less than half an hour and service to upgrade the computer. And one will be able to upgrade their computer to full-self driving capability or upgrade their car to full-self driving capability with a simple service visit. So, we expect all cars with the hardware to sensor suite, basically anything made in the last roughly two years will be upgradeable to full-self driving.
 
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And one more time. No promise of retrofits. Just states it is possible when the sensor suite is the same (So excludes hw2.0 cars)

From the same transcript (my bad for not including originally) :

Right. So, it's very important to emphasize that people shouldn't (inaudible) if you want to wait until that comes out, but there's no need to wait till it comes out because it's just a very simple plug-and-play change to get the full-self driving. And anyone who is patron for self-driving option, we'll just get it done for free.
 
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From the same transcript (my bad for not including originally) :
ok, if you want to believe it, so be it.

there's another funny bit there that's a lie (or a big exaggeration) btw:
Elon Musk said:
And this is a simple change that takes less than half an hour and service to upgrade the computer
Keep this in mind. Tesla service manual on S/X states hw2.5 replacement time is .9 hours (=54 minutes). It's much longer on model3, but the service manual for that have not leaked out yet.

Time will tell in the end who was right.
 
ok, if you want to believe it, so be it.

there's another funny bit there that's a lie (or a big exaggeration) btw:

Keep this in mind. Tesla service manual on S/X states hw2.5 replacement time is .9 hours (=54 minutes). It's much longer on model3, but the service manual for that have not leaked out yet.

Time will tell in the end who was right.

You are resorting to flat rate/ book time to try and discredit the free HW3 upgrade? You do know that experienced repair tech can do things faster than that, right? Especially if there are no diagnostics involved.
 
You are resorting to flat rate/ book time to try and discredit the free HW3 upgrade? You do know that experienced repair tech can do things faster than that, right? Especially if there are no diagnostics involved.
There are certain steps in software that take more than 30 minutes of wall clock time.

I am not discrediting the hw3 upgrade, I am just showing another thing that Musk said that is not really true unless you want to read his words really narrowly as "you can plug the new computer in under 30 minutes, but the car would be undriveable after that until you perform another 30+ minutes software mating procedure".

hw3 computer could be plugged into hw2.5 cars, I never disputed that. But hw2.0 is a different story too. Over time all these discrepancies add up.