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The 500-mile Tesla?

Discussion in 'Future Cars' started by mountaineer, Jul 29, 2014.

  1. mountaineer

    mountaineer Member

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    #1 mountaineer, Jul 29, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2014
    Elon said:"It will be possible to have a 500-mile range car. In fact we could do it quite soon, but it would increase the price. Over time you could expect to have that kind of range."
    Elon Musk: Tesla boss on EVs with 500-mile range and colonies on Mars | Auto Express

    We know that BMW and Nissan are busy cooking their e-cars. The 500-mile range will give TM another decisive advantage over its rivals in the next few years.

    I'd like to discuss the following:
    1. what technology does TM use? Bigger battery package,metal-air battery?
    2. The impact on performance and price?
    3. Will it be available in the next few years?
    4. How many people really need it, say if it adds $20K to the original price? I know many TM buyers in China really want 500-mile ones, even if it's $50k more expensive than p85 since it's still pretty inconvenient to access charging facilities in China。Also, Model S is really inexpensive when comparing with Mercedes S550, Bimmer 750, Lexus 460, Audi A8 etc.
     
  2. sublimaze1

    sublimaze1 8Dec2012 / Leeroy Jenkins

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    I am not really smart, so I will only tackle #4

    "Need" is a difficult term to shoe-horn in this. You need oxygen. You need food. You need love.

    Okay, you need food and oxygen. But the 500 mile battery (for me) does two things:

    1) It allows me to give BadA** the beans while driving from McKinney (north of Dallas) to League City (south of Houston) , in the rain and a headwind, with a rooftop carrier at 85 mph.

    2) It allows me to get from McKinney to Destin (our once or twice annual family holiday) in one stop.

    my $0.02

    I have 35K on this battery pack, and if (in five years) when I have 150K on it and want a new one ... should there exist the technology ... It will be mine.
     
  3. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    waynes-world.gif 27268516d1322756908-marvel-universe-discussion-waynes-world-fender-stratocaster-ex.jpg
     
  4. mountaineer

    mountaineer Member

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    #4 mountaineer, Jul 29, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2014
    Cool, thanks!

    Yes, we need to think about #2, the cost , when talking about "need", I have re-phrased my original question
     
  5. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    #3:

    I am not expecting that to happen before 2020 (meaning not in the current decade). But it surely will happen in 2020 at the soonest, or a few years later. By 2025 this will have become pretty normal.

    It's all about the progress in the battery cell density. The Gigafactory will be the place where it all will be made possible.
     
  6. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Such an energy package can be used in a variety of ways:

    1. Traveling at higher speeds

    2. Hauling more mass than otherwise

    3. Traveling longer distances

    The first applies to folks like Sublimaze; the second to those who long to see Tesla produce a pickup; the third to those who live in remote corners of the world. #s 2 & 3 apply to me - a 500-mile range would allow me to get to town, if not back, without the presence of a SpC en route. As that trip is so long, we invariably make an overnight out of it, which means that at least we could find an overnight in-town charge to get back home.

    Without such a powerpack then vehicles such as today's 85kW Model S are in the absolute sense impractical....here. Sure nice in the lesser-48 and Europe, though.... :)
     
  7. blakegallagher

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    I would certainly opt for it in my Model T truck. about 20 to 30 percent of my days I drive over 150 miles pulling a trailer with equipment in it. A battery of this size would let me complete most of my work (I think) and that would save me 30 bucks a day on gas :)
     
  8. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    I figure a range of 500 miles can be managed on a Tesla Model S with a 160-170 kWh battery pack. I think a 220 kWh battery pack would allow for a usable range of 480 miles for speed demons, out of a total range of roughly 685 miles.

    I think that it would take only 135-142 kWh to manage 505 miles total range with the Tesla Model ☰. With a 170 kWh battery pack, it would go 635 miles total, with about 445 usable miles if you 'Drive It Like You Stole It'.
     
  9. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    I am much more optimistic about the aggressive advancement of lithium ion battery technology that Tesla Motors uses than most are...

    1. Bigger battery pack.
    2. Same as current, proportionally speaking.
    3. 135 kWh in 2016. 170 kWh in 2018. 220 kWh in 2020.
    4. Most people don't actually need more than what can be achieved with 135 kWh. Tesla Motors needs to have something more capable, in order to tell Naysayers who harp about 'clean diesel' to [SIERRA TANGO FOXTROT UNIFORM].

    I believe the time will come when the number of battery cells that were in the Tesla Model S 85 will be improved to hold 340 kWh and higher capacities. Customers will be very satisfied to see a range reported in excess of 1000 miles, then 1500 miles, then 2500 miles. People will find it hard to believe that anyone was able to make use of such limited technology as we have today. It will take a while, but it will happen.
     
  10. Zapped

    Zapped Model S - PURE EV

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    Well of course a bigger battery will take longer to charge also.

    Personally I'm good with driving 3-4 hours and taking a break to juice up ( me and the car )
     
  11. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Actually, no... The 85 kWh battery pack fills quicker than either the 40 kWh or 60 kWh versions. Remember, charging the battery is similar to filling a cup with water from a faucet... The closer you get to full, the slower it goes. Having a higher capacity means that you can fill at a faster rate for a greater portion of the filling time.

    Also, if you presume that a person only needs to add a ~50% charge... 20%-70%... 30%-80%... 40%-90%... That will take about 20-30 minutes at a Supercharger. It is the amount above that which slows down for balancing of battery cells.

    So, if you have a 600 mile total range... You can add ~300 miles in less than half an hour, and ~150 miles in 15 minutes. If Superchargers are roughly 150 miles apart... You can sort of leapfrog them at your leisure.

    For overnight charging at home, where you just need to add back the 40, 60, 120 miles you used during the day, it will still be quicker... Because the percentage of the battery pack you need to refill is rather minimal.

    The only time it is demonstrably 'slower' is when you have entirely depleted the battery pack, and are using the slowest possible means to recharge, while needing to completely refill before going on the road again. Even then, it just means that it takes longer to get to 'full'.
     
  12. arondaniel

    arondaniel Il Sessanta Caricato

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    Why longer? Newer batteries / pack design could accept a higher charge current.

    Also a larger battery will accept the constant current rapid 70% charge for a longer time. To "fill up" a 85kWh battery might take an hour but you'll probably be able to pump 85kWh into a 120kWh battery in much less time than that.
     
  13. mulder1231

    mulder1231 Active Member

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  14. Raffy.Roma

    Raffy.Roma Active Member

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    Agree. IMO main point is to have a good Supercharger Network with a general rule of a Supercharger within 150 miles at global level.
     
  15. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    The bigger your battery pack, the less time it takes to fill. That is why cars with 17 kWh, 22, kWh, 24 kWh battery packs take longer to fill than it takes to add an equivalent amount of energy to a 60 kWh or 85 kWh battery pack on a Tesla. You can have a higher charge rate when you have a larger battery pack.
     
  16. Benz

    Benz Active Member

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    You are very optimistic indeed, and actually I do like to be optimistic too. But I still prefer to have conservative expectations. Just to avoid the risk of getting disappointed too much. Therefore I predict:

    2016: 100 kWh
    2020: 120 kWh
    2024: 140 kWh
    2028: 160 kWh

    But still, I hope that in due time I will have say that I was too conservative.
     
  17. jhm

    jhm Active Member

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    Elon Musk: Tesla boss on EVs with 500-mile range and colonies on Mars | Auto Express

    Energy density is the key metric of battery tech to watch. Density is expected to double every 10 years. So when Musk says that the MS has twice the energy density of the Nissan Leaf, he is basically saying that Tesla is 10 years ahead of Nissan.

    This leads to a simple metric for measuring years lead in battery energy density. Suppose one technology has energy density ED1 and another has ED2. Then, I define the Years Technology Lead in Energy Density as

    YTLED = 10×log (ED1/ED2)/log (2)

    So note that when JB Straubel points to out that the Model S had a density gain of 40% over the Roadster, this implies a YTLED of about 5 years. Also if the upgrade for the Roadster achieves 400 range with a pack of the same mass, then this implies a 64% density gain, or 7.13 years gain (YTLED). This would be right on schedule. So I think this could be a useful way to measure progress.
     
  18. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    If you keep the same charging rate ("C"), then a big battery charges at the same speed as a smaller battery. It gets more kWh/minute, but just in proportion to the size of the battery. Increasing C and shortening the charging time requires technology changes and/or greater stress on the battery.

    Remember that there are constraints on the land-side, too. There are important but mundane issues like, how stiff and heavy is the SpC cable? What is the expense of making 270kW of power available at each SpC, thereby doubling the transformer and interconnection costs, the monthly demand charge from the utility, etc.?

    Level 2 charging would still remain at 30A-40A in most places because of the cost of wiring and panel capacity. So, if you wander off the SpC Highway, you still might be limited in your daily driving, not by the battery size but by the amount of charge you were able to replace while you ate and slept. At, say, 10 hours stopped overnight, at 40A you've recovered about 300 miles of range -- a familiar number.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Personally, I can't see anyone being interested in paying for that much capacity. Batteries will never be free: not only do you pay for their capital cost, but you pay in performance for schlepping all that extra weight and volume around. There is a zone that balances these costs against the inconvenience of frequent/lengthy charging. I think most of us will agree that the Leaf's 70 mile range falls below that zone. For me, the 60kWh pack also falls below that zone, but it clearly is inside the zone of others. My guess is that 500 miles is at the top end of the zone, with 750 miles as an upper limit.

    Note, though, that the zone shifts with the cost. If batteries were incredibly cheap, light, and small, then the zone shifts up. Battery tech has a long-run improvement rate of about 8%/year, so barring any dramatic technology breakthroughs, I think the zone of 200-750 miles will hold for at least a decade, with the core of the zone at 250-500 miles.

    (What I want are the batteries from a light saber. Did you ever see Obi Wan looking for a place to plug in?)
     
  19. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Well, a larger pack would be a modified chemistry and a modified chemistry might not be allow proportionally faster charging.

    But, I do think that contention will be the key reason to increase battery capacity. Assuming similar performance characteristics, the larger the pack:
    - the fewer trips require a charge
    - the faster you can charge

    In Teslaworld, some people will want that 5 minute charge they're targeting. But don't worry so much about the infrastructural cost since in Teslaworld every Supercharger will have on-site storage and solar power to help provide bursts in excess of the grid infrastructure power. As Robert notes, the cable size and weight could be an issue, although I think that if they reach that limit, they'd do their modular thing and add a second charging port.

    The other advantage of larger packs is that (assuming Tesla can deal with the drivetrain issues) the Autobahnfreaken would be really be able to give it some welly.
     
  20. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    99% of the time, it takes from when I get home at night until the morning to charge; therefore the same time even with a bigger battery.

    When you drive longer you need longer breaks too.
     

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