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The "Apple Will Lose When Nokia Takes Over" Argument

Discussion in 'Tesla' started by Driver Dave, Dec 15, 2016.

  1. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    One of those articles you read and think "My god, this guy really has no idea what he is talking about."

    Tesla Could Lose Lead in Electric Cars to Big Automakers
    "Tesla’s early lead in the luxury market is impressive. But experienced manufacturers from the auto industry’s existing hubs are mastering the new technology. They seem more likely to carry the electric torch into a more affordable era."

    Tesla Could Lose Lead in Electric Cars to Big Automakers
     
  2. Bangor Bob

    Bangor Bob Member

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    On the other hand... Have you used Lycos search lately?

    The early movers often disappear.
     
  3. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    I favor Alta Vista, myself. ;) Well at least the domain still exists Yahoo Search - Web Search

    Yes Tesla could lose its lead in the EV space. The major auto companies have vast resources they can bring to bear, but they are moving incredibly slowly to do so and they have a legacy ICE model line and are saddled with a dealership structure that makes radical change extremely hard.

    That WSJ article offered no compelling arguments as to how Tesla could lose its EV leadership position.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

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    Article's behind a pay wall.

    Most of the authors of pieces like this seem to miss all the other things Tesla is innovating about. Without the Supercharger network and OTA updates and autonomous driving and internet connective functionality the car becomes far less appealing.

    At the same time, Tesla doesn't do any real advertising, and has managed to avoid the costs of the dealer networks - and even gets customers to fund the development of cars and building them before hand, instead of having to finance all of that.

    Combined with the economy of scale advantages in building batteries and the focus they've had lately on optimizing the factory and designing for manufacturing, I don't think the big players can simply take their lead away without adopting pretty much all of Tesla's innovations along the way - if they are able to, and after they build enough battery manufacturing capacity to play.
     
  5. Driver Dave

    Driver Dave Member

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    True, but Lycos got beat by Google, not by the Yellow Pages.

    So if someone it going to beat Tesla, I view it as possibly another startup with a secret sauce, rather than GM just because they are big.
     
    • Like x 5
  6. JohnSnowNW

    JohnSnowNW Active Member

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    Is Tesla an automotive company...?
     
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  7. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    To get around that I open an "Incognito" window in the Chrome browser, copy/paste the article title into the browser bar to search for it and then follow the link in the search results page and I can read the full article.
     
    • Informative x 2
  8. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    It will take a few years for them to realize the EV sales is not a zero-sum game. Even if the traditional car makers get competitive on EV, they will only accelerate the replacement of ICE cars, and make EV easier to own, and thus making it easier for Tesla to sell their cars. I can't wait to see the days when EV and/or PHEV becomes so prevalent that it starts eating into gas station business, and seeing some of them start to close down.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1
  9. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    until beyond 2030, Tesla and anyone else making long range EVs better than ICE vehicles will be taking market share from ICE, not each other. costs may come down some, but extrapolating from GF1, it will take $1 trillion to build enough battery factory capacity to make the switch... and that's being very conservative, putting the vehicle market as not expanding from 2020 to 2030. for perspective, all the global automakers have something on the scale of 20% of that cash on hand ($200 billion), and they would also need to spend money on multiple new vehicle platforms, and weather rough years of having to push tens of millions of units of a product they've already told the public is out-dated.
     
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  10. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    The basic challenge facing legacy automakers who might want to transition to BEVs is the stock market.

    Investors are notoriously shortsighted, focusing on the next quarter's results instead of on building a business that will prosper in the long term.

    Even if
    smart executives at the legacy manufacturers realized that the future was BEV and that long-term success required a major investment in battery and EV technology and battery production capacity, making the switch would require enormous R&D and capital investment expenditures. These outlays would hammer short-term earnings and cash flows, and very likely generate a tremendous negative reaction from shareholders and analysts, who have a hard time looking beyond the next quarter much less 3, 5 or 10 years down the road.

    A much more reliable path to success for auto execs is to continue to milk existing technology for all it is worth, and then either retire or move on to a new venture if things go south. If you are an auto exec, allowing short-term earnings and cash flow to take a huge hit to make a large-scale investment in an entirely new platform is a great way to end a career or at a minimum lose out on bonuses and other incentive compensation tied to short-term financial metrics.

    So while the auto companies and executives certainly share in the blame for their failure to invest in BEVs, the ultimate responsibility lies in short sighted and fickle investors. The same sort of people who discount and criticize Tesla's long-term approach, and the financial results that necessarily come along with making long-term investments in a capital intensive industry.

    For this reason, it seems very likely that the future will go to Tesla and other companies who have backers willing to think and invest for the long-term. At this point, I think that will likely be start-ups and Chinese BEV manufacturers, who have backers that are comfortable with a long-term approach.
     
  11. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    If you're using Chrome, you can right-click on the link, and one of the options in the pop-up menu is "google for this title". No cut-and-paste required.
     
  12. zambono

    zambono Member

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    Most gas stations make $ on items they sale , barely any on the fuel. New gas stations would be smart to incorporate fast chargers in their plans and amenities such as washing etc
     
  13. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Active Member

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    I read the article. he got a few things wrong.

    1. The Model T is equated to Tesla, by staying GM outsold for by teh 1920's. true, but Ford became stagnant continuing with the Model T far after the sell-by date. That analogy is ridiculous for a company that is constantly innovating, as is Tesla;
    2.He even eulogized BMW for the disastrous (BMW exec terms) i3. Nutty;
    3. He did not mention Superchargers;
    4. He did not mention tesla's continuing technological innovations from over-the-air updates, autopilot, new battery technology, deployment of robotics etc.

    All in all, superficial and substantially in error. Not too surprising.
     

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