The argument *against* a 2nd gen Model S & X

[tonybelding]

There's been a lot of yammering about how "stale" the Model S is, in particular, and "in dire need of a refresh", and people asking on the forum whether they should buy one now or wait for the refresh that everyone seems to imagine must be coming soon.

I think Tesla have the right idea, sticking with a program of continual improvements and refinements rather than an "all new" model on a new platform. I don't think there's going to be a second generation S on a new platform any time soon. I won't say never, but there's a lot of logic behind keeping the current platform going for as long as possible. (And much of my thoughts on this could apply to the X as well, and even other Tesla models in the long run.)

The Model S is on its third complete suspension setup. Anecdotally, I gather they've gone through about five revisions of door handles. Remember all those failed door handles? Yeah, that doesn't seem to happen anymore with the new cars. Yellowing screens? Fixed. Failing SSDs? Supposedly fixed, we'll see. I'm not sure how many revisions of battery packs they've gone through, but it's quite a few.

And it occurs to me that if Tesla keep this up, and continue analyzing their failures and methodically improving parts of the car over time, they could eventually achieve something that no other car company even wants to do: They could make the most long-term reliable car in the world!

Other car companies have a lot of incentives not to do this. They have parts supply chains that are profit centers. They have armies of franchised dealerships that depend on revenues from repair and maintenance. And ultimately, they do want their cars to wear out and become unsustainable. Because then somebody, somewhere, has to go out and buy a new car. Ka-ching!

Tesla is different. They don't have franchised dealerships, and they made a strategic decision that their service centers are not profit centers for the company. In the long run, they want to be in the Robo Taxi business, which means failed cars will only cost them money in downtime and repairs. This is what the push for a million-mile battery is about, too.

That doesn't mean the S & X can't get stylistic refreshes, inside and out, and new features. Maybe they will, maybe soon. My argument is just that I expect it to all be evolutionary, not a sudden break with the past and an "all new" S on a new platform. As always, Tesla are doing their own thing in their own way without regard for the conventions of the rest of the car industry.

 

[NickFie]

I mostly agree. VW Beetle was like that, with evolutionary changes, not necessarily tied to model year from early 1950s into the’70s.

Model S may eventually get a rework to incorporate design and manufacturability lessons learned from 3, Y and Cybertruck. That would benefit everyone.

 

[mkspeedr]

I wish they could fix the 12V battery issue and the shuddering.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

I wish they could fix the 12V battery issue and the shuddering.

Shuddering is fixed: Service Bulletin out on Hard Acceleration "Shudder"

 

[AmpedRealtor]

There's been a lot of yammering about how "stale" the Model S is, in particular, and "in dire need of a refresh", and people asking on the forum whether they should buy one now or wait for the refresh that everyone seems to imagine must be coming soon.

I think Tesla have the right idea, sticking with a program of continual improvements and refinements rather than an "all new" model on a new platform. I don't think there's going to be a second generation S on a new platform any time soon. I won't say never, but there's a lot of logic behind keeping the current platform going for as long as possible. (And much of my thoughts on this could apply to the X as well, and even other Tesla models in the long run.)

The Model S is on its third complete suspension setup. Anecdotally, I gather they've gone through about five revisions of door handles. Remember all those failed door handles? Yeah, that doesn't seem to happen anymore with the new cars. Yellowing screens? Fixed. Failing SSDs? Supposedly fixed, we'll see. I'm not sure how many revisions of battery packs they've gone through, but it's quite a few.

And it occurs to me that if Tesla keep this up, and continue analyzing their failures and methodically improving parts of the car over time, they could eventually achieve something that no other car company even wants to do: They could make the most long-term reliable car in the world!

Other car companies have a lot of incentives not to do this. They have parts supply chains that are profit centers. They have armies of franchised dealerships that depend on revenues from repair and maintenance. And ultimately, they do want their cars to wear out and become unsustainable. Because then somebody, somewhere, has to go out and buy a new car. Ka-ching!

Tesla is different. They don't have franchised dealerships, and they made a strategic decision that their service centers are not profit centers for the company. In the long run, they want to be in the Robo Taxi business, which means failed cars will only cost them money in downtime and repairs. This is what the push for a million-mile battery is about, too.

That doesn't mean the S & X can't get stylistic refreshes, inside and out, and new features. Maybe they will, maybe soon. My argument is just that I expect it to all be evolutionary, not a sudden break with the past and an "all new" S on a new platform. As always, Tesla are doing their own thing in their own way without regard for the conventions of the rest of the car industry.

Look, this isn't complicated.

Model S has tail lights from 2012 w/ visible individual LEDs versus LED light pipes for all other models. Model S and X lack basic coat hooks and seat back pockets present in Model 3 at half the price. Model S/X dashboard looks dated compared to Model 3 and lacks the 3's revolutionary (and beautifully implemented) vent setup. Model S headlights received a POOR IIHS rating. Pano roofs no longer available on S. Model S and X both have incredibly wide and poorly designed B-pillar.

The above is just what I could recall off the top of my head. There are a substantial number of improvements that are needed, along with some evolution of the body style. Model S and X sales are in the proverbial toilet and Tesla needs to do something pretty sweet to revive the line.

 

[destructure00]

The above is just what I could recall off the top of my head. There are a substantial number of improvements that are needed, along with some evolution of the body style. Model S and X sales are in the proverbial toilet and Tesla needs to do something pretty sweet to revive the line.

The other side of the coin is that the purpose of Model S and X were to enable production of Model 3 and Y. To that end, they have served their purpose. I'd be surprised to see too much invested in "reviving" them in the future. They are not a flagship line in the traditional manufacturer sense, they are a means to an end, and that end will have been achieved as soon as the Y enters production.

 

[FreqFlyer]

The argument for a new gen is take advantage of new production techniques, and the rumored parts sharing with the 3. I believe we will see a new S based on the 3 in a couple of years, if the ROI is there.

The "new" X is big question. Elon himself has stated how difficult it is to produce. The Y is similar in size and do the X what the 3 has done to the Y. Will its replacement come the Cyber Truck platform? We will see.

 

[Tslacg]

I'd be surprised we will see a new x or s on the same platform as current. Now that they can literally stamp out the Y, it's pointless to work backwoods and assemble the X and S in may pieces. Maybe in a few more years after the CT we will see an new s and x platform. Maybe.

 

[WEG8899]

Elon and Franz have to be elated that their original Model S design and engineering have held up so well. My guess is the Model S will get its first major upgrade (since 2012) as soon as the first wave of major all-electric competition has been launched and evaluated. Tesla must be -- or should be -- champing at the bit for the first truly competitive challenge they knew was coming. New fascia, colors, and options will all help current Tesla owners resist the urge to switch brands short-term.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Legacy manufactuers are incentivised to come up constantly with new models and refreshes. They need to do this to motivate buyers to trade up to the "all new" models. They hold off improvement s until the new model is released.

Tesla does not have this issue. They constantly improve their existing cars. Implement the improvements as soon as they are available for production. Along the way they do constant OTA firmware updates to make existing cars more capable and up to date.

Model S has had major improvements along the way to keep them fresh. Got rid of the nose cone originally used to keep the phoney grills that ICE buyers were used to. Now more aerodynamic and more honest for an EV. Seats are new, suspension is new, display is updated, power is improved, range is improved, brakes are improved, lighting is better, software is faster, cars are better made, quieter, additional motor and air suspensions have been added. Cars can now tow, HEPA filter is available, etc.

Even the body, suspension, frame etc. have been improved as manufacturing technology had improved.

Little by little the cars have metamorphosised into what you can order today.

The fact that the cars are still stunning is high praise to the designers.

 

[sw1008]

Interesting for me is reading Your opinions. I ordered an X with delivery postponed to Q2/2020 and will possibly have to cancel cause we have a trial with VW to get rid of our ICE Sharan and this has to be closed first.
I hope for a battery and charging upgrade, not so much for me to grab one of those but rather for a decent price drop if I take my order or order a LR with the smaller battery then. Actually Tesla pushes out the remaining SR models in Europe with a really enjoyable price cut, but 375km WLTP is a little bit few range for long trips.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Legacy manufactuers are incentivised to come up constantly with new models and refreshes. They need to do this to motivate buyers to trade up to the "all new" models. They hold off improvement s until the new model is released.

Tesla does not have this issue. They constantly improve their existing cars. Implement the improvements as soon as they are available for production. Along the way they do constant OTA firmware updates to make existing cars more capable and up to date.

Model S has had major improvements along the way to keep them fresh. Got rid of the nose cone originally used to keep the phoney grills that ICE buyers were used to. Now more aerodynamic and more honest for an EV. Seats are new, suspension is new, display is updated, power is improved, range is improved, brakes are improved, lighting is better, software is faster, cars are better made, quieter, additional motor and air suspensions have been added. Cars can now tow, HEPA filter is available, etc.

Even the body, suspension, frame etc. have been improved as manufacturing technology had improved.

Little by little the cars have metamorphosised into what you can order today.

The fact that the cars are still stunning is high praise to the designers.

So in a world where we have the attention span of 2 seconds, a car that looks the same for 9 years will keep selling well just because you can watch Netflix in it?

All of this talk of Tesla changing buyer habits is just naive. As Tesla is finding out, Model S owners coming out of their 2nd 3 year lease are wanting something.......umm.........new looking. And before we mention BMW or Porsche car designs, does Tesla want to go mainstream or stay niche?

 

[malcolm]

Certainly the S is seeing a new lease of life as Taycan teaser.

None of us expected to see the new roadster's plaid technology trickle down to another car even before they shipped the roadster!

They will only implement things like body casting and simplified wiring harnesses for the S, if companies like Porsche can cut costs drastically (yeah, right).

The X is more likely to be phased out.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The other side of the coin is that the purpose of Model S and X were to enable production of Model 3 and Y. To that end, they have served their purpose. I'd be surprised to see too much invested in "reviving" them in the future. They are not a flagship line in the traditional manufacturer sense, they are a means to an end, and that end will have been achieved as soon as the Y enters production.

No. It's not that.

Tesla just can't afford to do it right now.

It's that simple.

Forget the other features. The main thing the Model S and X need are a battery that can handle 250kw charging.

 

[Tslacg]

No. It's not that.

Tesla just can't afford to do it right now.

It's that simple.

Forget the other features. The main thing the Model S and X need are a battery that can handle 250kw charging.

I guess I don't see your reasoning. They've made significantly more on their model 3 and will continue that with the model y. I just don't see them redoing a model that doesn't help them skyrocket their stock price, which supports developing the Y and CT.

I would love a luxobarge model s to compete with the s class, and hope they do it, but I'm not so sure they will. (massage seats, whisper quiet inside, etc etc).

 

[msm859]

I guess I don't see your reasoning. They've made significantly more on their model 3 and will continue that with the model y. I just don't see them redoing a model that doesn't help them skyrocket their stock price, which supports developing the Y and CT.

I would love a luxobarge model s to compete with the s class, and hope they do it, but I'm not so sure they will. (massage seats, whisper quiet inside, etc etc).

There is more to having a halo car than sales. Chevrolet has the Corvette that has a trickle down effect on other products and image. Tesla would be foolish to drop the S and X. Most of the R&D for them have already been expensed so the additional costs for keeping/improving them is small relative to the return. Update the batteries, give them a 400+ mile range and faster charging. I can't see Elon letting the Taycan take the title of top EV.

 

[FlatSix911]

I mostly agree.
VW Beetle was like that, with evolutionary changes, not necessarily tied to model year from early 1950s into the’70s.

Model S may eventually get a rework to incorporate design and manufacturability lessons learned from 3, Y and Cybertruck.
That would benefit everyone.

Tesla broke the old automaker's paradigm that a new model is required every few years.
Continuous improvement with software upgrades is now the new model and this will take a while to gain acceptance.

Porsche had a similar philosophy with the 911 model years ago... continuous improvement of the original air-cooled design from 1964 to 1998. Too bad that they have abandoned their strategy after the VW acquisition a decade later.

 

[Lasttoy]

Keep the body forever. Just improve the electronics.
I would like a reasonable battery upgrade, mine is dying 10 full miles a year. And will only super charge at 30kw.
I love the car, but my electronics are 8 years old. The upgrades ruin more then help. I keep telling Tesla, you cant jam a new version of MS dos into a 8 yr old computer, just like you cant jam v10 into a 8 yr old MCU. The chip set cant take it.
It might get to the point I part the car out before I spend 20k on new battery.

 

[Uncle Paul]

New models from legacy manufacturers are a farce.

They usually do some new sheet metal or a different chassis, and promote the heck out of all the new features, but in reality the cars are not all that much different from the previous model. Most of the changes are made to meet emission or mileage government mandates. They also change models so lots of their cars, of different sizes can be made on a common chassis. This results in savings for the manufacturer, but obvious comprimises for the buyer.

They make more expensive luxury versions of their cheap cars. The Lexus is essentilly a Toyota with better stuff. Acura is often built on cheap Civic chassis. Infiniti is lipsitck on the pig of a cheap Nissan.

Tesla is different. They can download software to give older cars more range or even better performance. They can give adaptive suspension models additional handling capabilities at higher speeds. Entertainment and map systems can get all the new stuff with a simple download...for FREE.

Owners can stretch their ownership length for additional years by just getting updates.

Of course, at sometime, people just want a fresh new car. Can still get good value by selling their old one and paying the difference for a new one (that often cost much less than their original)

Legacy auto companies have made their fortunes by outdating the styling of their older cars. Pushing owners into more and more expensive versions of their old cars. They keep raising their prices and tend to decontent current cars as that model gets closer to end of life.

Don't even get me started on how they offer subsidized lease rates to encourage buyers to go deep into debt to buy the latest and greatest.

Believe that the Tesla way is the better way.

 

[FreqFlyer]

New models from legacy manufacturers are a farce.

They usually do some new sheet metal or a different chassis, and promote the heck out of all the new features, but in reality the cars are not all that much different from the previous model. Most of the changes are made to meet emission or mileage government mandates. They also change models so lots of their cars, of different sizes can be made on a common chassis. This results in savings for the manufacturer, but obvious comprimises for the buyer.

They make more expensive luxury versions of their cheap cars. The Lexus is essentilly a Toyota with better stuff. Acura is often built on cheap Civic chassis. Infiniti is lipsitck on the pig of a cheap Nissan.

Tesla is different. They can download software to give older cars more range or even better performance. They can give adaptive suspension models additional handling capabilities at higher speeds. Entertainment and map systems can get all the new stuff with a simple download...for FREE.

Owners can stretch their ownership length for additional years by just getting updates.

Of course, at sometime, people just want a fresh new car. Can still get good value by selling their old one and paying the difference for a new one (that often cost much less than their original)

Legacy auto companies have made their fortunes by outdating the styling of their older cars. Pushing owners into more and more expensive versions of their old cars. They keep raising their prices and tend to decontent current cars as that model gets closer to end of life.

Don't even get me started on how they offer subsidized lease rates to encourage buyers to go deep into debt to buy the latest and greatest.

Believe that the Tesla way is the better way.

We (the market, people in general) get bored with a smart phone thats been on the market for a year, but all of a sudden, that same market is suppose to be ok with a car that looks the same 8 years on the market? Drift over to the S forum, there are many owners of four and five year old Ss that would like something that looks a little different.

Why do you think manufacturers change their designs every five years? Its what we, the consumer want! And Tesla is not immune to it either,

Its in the automaker's financial interest to keep selling the same design for years if they could.