The Autonomous Model 3

[Haxster]

Current speculation is that the Model 3 may come with (near) fully autonomous driving. I sure hope that it comes with an "Off" switch.

I like driving.
I like stomping down on throttle and steering around curvy roads.
And sometimes I enjoy pushing the limits of a car.
On the highway, I don't mind checking my radar detector and my mirror for those cars with the forward facing red lights.
I often get anxious when I'm a passenger with a human driver. At least they can hear (and hopefully respond to) my "driving tips". What to do when Robodriver takes over?

All levity aside, I do think that I'd get used to semi/full autonomous driving pretty quickly. But I still want the "Off" switch.

 

[hoang51]

In it's current form on both Model S & X, the driver is required to activate it. I'm pretty sure it isn't set for full auto from the start.

 

[mhan00]

Don't worry about it. The speculation is just that, and it is very likely to be wrong. Even if, and that's a HUGE if, the Model 3 came with all the hardware - which would have to include at least two layers of redundancies to guard against failure - necessary for full autonomy, it would likely be years before the software was ready for it, and it is for certain that it would take years before laws were determined to cover autonomous driving. Just for liability reasons Tesla would still make it clear that the driver is responsible for the car, which means that it is a guarantee that the car will be drive able and not just an autonomous vehicle.

Speculation in general tends to err on the more hopeful side, and it can pick up steam as people start repeating each other, but it doesn't actually effect reality. The Model 3 won't be an autonomous vehicle, that's by far the most likely scenario.

 

[ModelSFL]

It mystifies me that there are people who would prefer to manually drive a car instead of letting it drive itself. There are so many benefits of autonomous driving which include the reduction of deaths, accidents, traffic, taxes, insurance, etc... I could see in the next 10-20 years we will look back and laugh that we ever gave the general public the responsibility to drive themselves and make their own decisions. However, I realize there will always be people who will revolt against "the computer driving for them" regardless of any of all the benefits that exist outside of their own selfish pleasures of "stomping down on throttle and steering around curvy roads."

It reminds of people who still smoke cigarettes even though all the empirical data shows them the harm it does to themselves and to others. It has taken many decades to reduce the amount of smokers from an accepted behavior down to the shift into a disgusting habit which make up the trolls of society.

Look, I know this may sound like a radical perspective but it is also something I really believe in and just like any shift in human behavior, it is going to have people that resist and throw FUD at the technology. I feel fortunate to have a vehicle with AP and I can already see with just that technology how much it would improve everyone if this was a standard feature in all vehicles. Autonomous driving is just the end state.

OP - You do not have to worry, they know autonomous driving is many years out and needs to go through many years more of regulations. Best case is that the Model 3 will have whichever advanced MobileEye features that come out at that time which allow for advanced AP capabilities currently not seen in the Model S or Model X. At that point, you can decide not to activate or pay for those features.

 

[SpiceWare]

It mystifies me that there are people who would prefer to manually drive a car instead of letting it drive itself.

You've never had anything go wrong with your computer?

As a programmer I find autonomous driving to be really cool and look forward to it, but at the same time I've often had to deal with users who were frantic because their computer lost or corrupted an important Word/Excel/etc document.

When I see things like this:

I was having to reboot the touch screen daily before the update....Since the update it has been almost flawless....Getting better

I understand that different parts of the system are designed to have different fault tolerance levels - the autonomous mode software will keep running even if the screen locks up. But the typical end user doesn't understand that - if they encounter that issue they're going to question the wisdom of letting the computer control their 2 ton vehicle when it's going 75 MPH down the interstate.

 

[Skotty]

I'm pretty fond of making my own decisions. There are many, myself included, who don't believe in taking away people's ability to do risky things, as it encroaches on their freedom. Individuals generally accept a certain level of risk in order to remain free. I guess the question is, where do you draw the line? Personally, I think driving your own car, even when full autonomy is available, should always remain an option.

This is a general philosophy of mine. Kind of like the seat belt law. Seat belts save lives. I always wear mine because I believe it makes me safer. But I don't believe we should have a law requiring it. That's going too far, and I hope to see that law repealed some day.

 

[Jersey Shore Tom]

I'm pretty fond of making my own decisions. There are many, myself included, who don't believe in taking away people's ability to do risky things, as it encroaches on their freedom. Individuals generally accept a certain level of risk in order to remain free. I guess the question is, where do you draw the line? Personally, I think driving your own car, even when full autonomy is available, should always remain an option.

This is a general philosophy of mine. Kind of like the seat belt law. Seat belts save lives. I always wear mine because I believe it makes me safer. But I don't believe we should have a law requiring it. That's going too far, and I hope to see that law repealed some day.

I understand your point about freedom, but:

"Your right to swing your arms ends just where the other man's nose begins"
Zechariah Chafee, "Freedom of Speech in Wartime", 32 Harvard Law Review 932, 957 (1919)

In the not too distant future, people driving their own cars will be a significant risk to other users of the roadway. Does your right to drive your own car include the right to endanger my family and friends?

Even in the case of seatbelts, although I don't have link right now, I have seen information that led me to believe that someone who is wearing a seatbelt is better able to maintain control of the car in an emergency, thus making the roadways wafer for everyone.

 

[Skotty]

In the not too distant future, people driving their own cars will be a significant risk to other users of the roadway. Does your right to drive your own car include the right to endanger my family and friends?
.

Yes, it does. People periodically endanger my life with their activities, but as long as the risk level is low, I accept that risk in defense of their freedom. When it comes to driving, risks are pretty low. Special cases where a person is a particularly dangerous driver are addressed by taking away their license to drive.

 

[Darren F]

Yes, it does. People periodically endanger my life with their activities, but as long as the risk level is low, I accept that risk in defense of their freedom. When it comes to driving, risks are pretty low. Special cases where a person is a particularly dangerous driver are addressed by taking away their license to drive.

And that assessment of risk is an ever moving scale. In the near future, a human driver will be considered an unreasonable risk to others.

 

[Jersey Shore Tom]

The risk does not look that low to me. In the US it is a top 10 cause of death for all age groups except those under 1 and in the top 5 for those from 1 to 45.

http://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc...eaths_unintentional_injury_2014_1040w740h.gif

http://www.cdc.gov/injury/images/lc-charts/leading_causes_of_death_age_group_2014_1050w760h.gif

 

[Lex]

It mystifies me that there are people who would prefer to manually drive a car instead of letting it drive itself. There are so many benefits of autonomous driving which include the reduction of deaths, accidents, traffic, taxes, insurance, etc.

Well first of all, Tesla makes some of the best cars in the world, which deserve to be driven by enthusiastic, passionate drivers. There will probably be a Tesla that can be driven by a human for a long time to come just because of this.

But I do agree that freeway driving (eg. the daily crap like in my current avatar pic) will hugely benefit from autonomous driving, I think we're still at least 5 years and probably 10 from fully autonomous point-to-point driving without a human-operated steering system available.

For one thing, consider the condition of the streets where you live -- here in Toronto they range from medium to horrible. If I let today's Autopilot drive on its own through some of these, I'll be in the shop for frequent alignments and probably regular suspension repairs. I always think twice about activating and I take over frequently anywhere other than the major highways around these parts.

So the Model 3 will absolutely have a steering wheel, but are Elon and Company planning something radical like a mini-wheel or somethng here ? I got a feeling the answer is yes, at the very least to take the column design (and manufacture ?) in-house and away from Daimler.

But probably not something rectangular, like KITT's...

 

[TravelSD80]

I certainly hope that at shipping the M3 comes with APv2. I do agree with others that I think from both a technical and regulatory perspective, autonomous level 4 cars are several years away. Every time I drive, I now think how would an autonomous car handle these conditions? Parking lots, unpredictable people, bad road conditions, etc. The scenarios it would encounter are almost infinite. I'm expecting the M3 to have smarter AP than that's on the on S/X today. But any sort of fully autonomous mode I think is a good 5-10 years away. That's one reason I may lease my first M3 for 3 years, then buy the then-current M3 if it has better AP features.

 

[Haxster]

For one thing, consider the condition of the streets where you live -- here in Toronto they range from medium to horrible. If I let today's Autopilot drive on its own through some of these, I'll be in the shop for frequent alignments and probably regular suspension repairs.

Like the location-aware air suspension option that remembers to raise a Model S or X for steep driveways etc, it's likely that a future automatically generated group-share database of road defects (e.g. pot holes, speed bumps, ruts, tracks, uneven pavement) will eventually modify the suspension, speed, and steering/lane selection to help mitigate potential abuses to both the vehicle and its passengers.

Furthermore, forward-facing sensors in the vehicle could spot some road aberrations. Road debris and speed bumps should be fairly easy (I think Rolls Royce is already doing this for speed bumps).

 

[Haxster]

I think that some readers were taking my "humor" too seriously.

Whenever there's a brake pedal and steering wheel, it's hard for me to imagine any conventional vehicle within the next decade or so that would "default" to full AP mode.

 

[igotzzoom]

All levity aside, I do think that I'd get used to semi/full autonomous driving pretty quickly. But I still want the "Off" switch.

Same. There are some nice curvy canyon roads near where I live, but when I hit the 405 at rush hour, I'd love to "hit the switch" and sit back and listen to some smooth jazz.