The bet is on; $1M says the Model S will be on time

[mpt]

A friendly bet between Journalist Dan Neil and Elon Musk has escalated into a brilliant wager; Elon says the Model S will ship by the end of 2012 or,

If Tesla misses any one of those targets, Neil says, he wins the bet and Musk must donate $1 million to Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders).

However, there are conditions, full story at:

Betting Tesla's Elon Musk $1 Million, Dan Neil Hopes To Lose

{Source: John Voelcker - Green Car Reports}

 

[smorgasbord]

... $57,400 for the version with 160 miles of range, $67,400 for the 230-mile version, and $87,400 for the top-of-the-line 300-mile version...

Is that a typo? I thought the 300 mile version was $77,400? Or do we now have a price for the Signature Series?

 

[AnOutsider]

Is that a typo? I thought the 300 mile version was $77,400? Or do we now have a price for the Signature Series?

hoping that's a typo, else sigs may be even higher

 

[Slackjaw]

I wouldn't be too surprised if (a) Elon wins the bet and (b) he makes the donation anyway. It would be a delicious PR coup, and let's face it, lots of Tesla customers are doctors. Wouldn't want to disappoint them... :biggrin:

 

[mpt]

I agree; that'd be a fantastic outcome.

 

[TEG]

Is that a typo? I thought the 300 mile version was $77,400?...

Maybe it is a "wow look at the $1million and don't pay attention to the little details?"

This caught my eye too:

earn a 4- or 5-star safety rating

Contrast that to this:
Tesla Says Model S Is Being Designed for Rapid Battery Swaps - AutoObserver

...the Model S will obtain a 5-star crash rating...

Why say that a 4-star wins the bet too?

 

[Joseph]

Has there ever been such an audacious bet in automotive history??? Seriously. This is unheard of!

 

[ckessel]

Why say that a 4-star wins the bet too?

Elon noted in the 2nd quarter numbers call that the 2012 crash ratings raised the bar significantly. No car has, yet, passed the 2012 ratings with 5-stars across the board. Elon has said 5-star across the board is his goal and they think they can make it, but I can see why he wouldn't want to set that bar. For example, a 4-star on top crush may be more than fine for a low, stable sedan vs. something more roll over prone like an SUV.

 

[TEG]

Well, it seems they said in the IR presentations that it is planned to be 5-star...

Tesla Motors - Current Report
http://content.edgar-online.com/edg...6/0001193125-10-281997_G129292EX99_1PG009.JPG

 

[TEG]

Traderhood Tesla ER

...• a 5 star safety 2010 rating equals 3 star 2012 rating; Model S will be 5 star by the 2012 standard – obviously they will crash a lot of those beauties...

The target group Model S, future green fashion, care about your family.

...Model S is engineered with the intent to achieve 2012 5-star NHTSA safety ratings...

Tesla showing strong growth, huge losses, amid best quarter in their history - National Green Transportation | Examiner.com

...Their goal is for the Model S to be the safest car in the world. The Alpha test cars almost achieved a 5 star crash rating in all categories. They're currently working on tightening production tolerances and expect to achieve a 5 star rating...

 

[ckessel]

Well, it seems they said in the IR presentations that it would be 5-star...

Tesla Motors - Current Report
http://content.edgar-online.com/edgar_conv_img/2010/12/16/0001193125-10-281997_G129292EX99_1PG009.JPG

Right, but those were before the 2012 crash ratings. The first link is to a 2010 report. I have no idea when the image link was done, but presumably also well before the 2012 ratings. If you want to be pedantic, you could say it'll have 5-star ratings against pre-2012 standards.

In the call (or some interview shortly thereafter related to it, can't recall), Elon talked about it specifically saying they fell just short in the alpha model crash tests and they think with some tweaking they'll make the 2012 ratings across the board. There were some wiggle words about not going nuts on cost for it though.

 

[Iz]

Price was corrected.

(4) Model S prices must remain at the levels Tesla and Musk announced: $57,400 for the version with 160 miles of range, $67,400 for the 230-mile version, and $77,400 (was $87,400, corrected) for the top-of-the-line 300-mile version (which will comprise the bulk of early production). All prices are before any Federal or other incentives.

 

[JRod0802]

... No car has, yet, passed the 2012 ratings with 5-stars across the board. ...

Hasn't the 2012 Kia Optima?

2012 Kia Optima 4 DR FWD | Safercar -- NHTSA

Or am I missing something?

Edit:
Upon further inspection, it seems that each category is subdivided into a few different tests. The side crash rating was given a 5-star over all, but not every specific test was given 5-star, so I guess the Optima didn't get a 5-star rating in every test.

I double checked the entire US database, and no 2012 car has 5 stars across the board (yet).

 

[TEG]

Hasn't the 2012 Kia Optima?

2012 Kia Optima 4 DR FWD | Safercar -- NHTSA


Or am I missing something?

Kia sure has come up in the world if they are leaders in safety now.

 

[Norbert]

If the alphas almost got to the 5 star rating on all counts, then they probably have 4 stars as the lowest count. Although achieving top safety, with a 5 star rating, is surely more important than winning the bet, I guess in regard to that, the only open question (except for surprises) might be manufacturing.

I think the article (and the bet itself) shows that there is still a lot of skepticism about the Model S (and the near-future feasibility of long-range EVs in general).

 

[TEG]

Edit:
Upon further inspection, it seems that each category is subdivided into a few different tests. The side crash rating was given a 5-star over all, but not every specific test was given 5-star, so I guess the Optima didn't get a 5-star rating in every test.

I double checked the entire US database, and no 2012 car has 5 stars across the board (yet).

Getting a 5-star overall is impressive.
Getting a (blended) 5-star on those different categories is even more impressive.
Getting a 5-star on every single test might be nearly impossible.
(But if Tesla aims to make the Model S "The safest car on the road...")

 

[Larry Chanin]

I wouldn't be too surprised if (a) Elon wins the bet and (b) he makes the donation anyway. It would be a delicious PR coup, and let's face it, lots of Tesla customers are doctors. Wouldn't want to disappoint them... :biggrin:

Hi,

It looks like Elon is willing to make the donation, but it doesn't appear to be a bet anymore.

Charity will be big winner of Tesla bet

"I'm still game if Elon is," said Neil, a former Los Angeles Times car critic who in 2004 won the Pulitzer Prize for criticism for his automobile reviews.

It turns out that Musk is, but with a slight change. "I will put the car out and give $1 million to Doctors Without Borders," Musk told The Times. "I don't really need a bet to give money away. I have a foundation that gives away money every year. I think Doctors Without Borders is a good cause, so sure, I will do this. Dan should chip in $1,000 too."

Larry

 

[doug]

It looks like Elon is willing to make the donation, but it doesn't appear to be a bet anymore.

The obvious outcome was always that Elon would give the money regardless. Certainly takes the air out of it, though.

 

[AnOutsider]

The obvious outcome was always that Elon would give the money regardless. Certainly takes the air out of it, though.

Yeah, I wonder if that means they foresee not meeting one of the criteria.

 

[tdelta1000]

Any updates on this friendly wager?