The bet is on; $1M says the Model S will be on time

[Arnold Panz]

I wonder if this bet is still on? Re-reading the original article, one of the 4 conditions was that the battery pack be swappable on the road (a la Better Place). I don't think that's going to happen within the first 6 months (at least, we haven't heard anything to that effect), and I'm not sure why Elon allowed that to be one of the conditions of the bet.

In any event, it raises a bigger question -- when will the press get to test drive the Model S? I'm imagining that fawning articles in the big newspapers and car magazines would help reservations quite a bit, so wouldn't Tesla want to make an extra couple of Performance cars to let the press drive around so they can write some positive reviews over the slow news months in July and August? Or, would it be better to wait until the fall when people may be paying more attention to the news, and they'll be more ramped up at the factory?

 

[widodh]

In any event, it raises a bigger question -- when will the press get to test drive the Model S? I'm imagining that fawning articles in the big newspapers and car magazines would help reservations quite a bit, so wouldn't Tesla want to make an extra couple of Performance cars to let the press drive around so they can write some positive reviews over the slow news months in July and August? Or, would it be better to wait until the fall when people may be paying more attention to the news, and they'll be more ramped up at the factory?

Why produce for the press while you have customers to deliver a car to?

They have >10k orders for the Model S. You never know what some petrol-head is going to write.

 

[Citizen-T]

I wonder if this bet is still on? Re-reading the original article, one of the 4 conditions was that the battery pack be swappable on the road (a la Better Place). I don't think that's going to happen within the first 6 months (at least, we haven't heard anything to that effect), and I'm not sure why Elon allowed that to be one of the conditions of the bet.

In any event, it raises a bigger question -- when will the press get to test drive the Model S? I'm imagining that fawning articles in the big newspapers and car magazines would help reservations quite a bit, so wouldn't Tesla want to make an extra couple of Performance cars to let the press drive around so they can write some positive reviews over the slow news months in July and August? Or, would it be better to wait until the fall when people may be paying more attention to the news, and they'll be more ramped up at the factory?

I think Elon is ok here. The bet only stipulated that it be possible, not that Tesla had to implement it. The battery is in fact able to be swapped out in only minutes, so if a Better Place like company wanted to pursue this business model, they could.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Well, not that I'm complaining that the Model S is on time but, I guess the wonderful charity "Doctors without Borders" has just lost $999,000 in possible funding

 

[Arnold Panz]

Why produce for the press while you have customers to deliver a car to?

They have >10k orders for the Model S. You never know what some petrol-head is going to write.

That's certainly true, but Tesla has always been pretty good about using "free" media to get publicity in the absence of any traditional marketing, and favorable reviews would be right in line with that. They let the press in prior to the Model S event at the factory last year, and the Model X reveal earlier this year. I could certainly see them producing one or two extra cars, perhaps after the Sigs (and maybe Rs) are produced, so that it can get reviewed.

If nothing else, if they hold out too long on the press (who probably expect to be able to review the car June 23rd), they'll assume that Tesla is afraid of them, kind of like a movie that isn't previewed for reviewers is always terrible. Assuming Tesla expects good reviews from the likes of Dan Neil then it's in their interest to get him behind the wheel of one as soon as possible.

 

[AnOutsider]

Well, not that I'm complaining that the Model S is on time but, I guess the wonderful charity "Doctors without Borders" has just lost $999,000 in possible funding

didn't Elon say he'd donate either way?

That's certainly true, but Tesla has always been pretty good about using "free" media to get publicity in the absence of any traditional marketing, and favorable reviews would be right in line with that. They let the press in prior to the Model S event at the factory last year, and the Model X reveal earlier this year. I could certainly see them producing one or two extra cars, perhaps after the Sigs (and maybe Rs) are produced, so that it can get reviewed.

If nothing else, if they hold out too long on the press (who probably expect to be able to review the car June 23rd), they'll assume that Tesla is afraid of them, kind of like a movie that isn't previewed for reviewers is always terrible. Assuming Tesla expects good reviews from the likes of Dan Neil then it's in their interest to get him behind the wheel of one as soon as possible.

For all that, once the deliveries start, they can let press ride in some of the Founder vehicles.

 

[Citizen-T]

didn't Elon say he'd donate either way?

Yeah, pretty sure he did.

 

[Arnold Panz]

didn't Elon say he'd donate either way?

He did -- it's earlier in this thread somewhere. I think Neil may have even agreed to his $1000 donation as well regardless of the outcome. The benefit to Tesla, of course, would be that Neil could very well mention the bet in his eventual review of the car, and if he "loses" the bet, that's going to signal a likely positive review. Although I'm pretty confident given his feelings about EVs generally that he's going to love the Model S anyway.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Good to hear that the donations will happen in any case.

The folks over at Jalopnik though are being true to their reputation (posted earlier on the investment thread):

Tesla Delivers One Model S To One Guy

Unimportant news? Basically everything else. This car could be a dud and brick or catch fire 100 times and there's no way that we'd hear about it unless it happened in a public place. Tesla has a strong leash on news that the weak-willed West Coast media rarely challenges.

Some of the comments there are filled with needless hate (directed both at Tesla and Musk).

 

[daniel]

Has there ever been such an audacious bet in automotive history??? Seriously. This is unheard of!

Apparently not, since he intended to give the money regardless. Of course, when someone is willing to give a million dollars to a good cause, nobody is going to criticize him for taking a little publicity from it.

And Musk seems like an extremely confident guy. I'm sure that when he made the "bet" he knew he'd win, and he knew he'd give the money anyway. In fact, it would have been a bad move otherwise: If he'd won the bet he'd look bad for holding out the hopes of MSF and then disappointing them. But winning the bet and giving the money anyway, he's a winner twice over: He gets good publicity for delivering on the car promises, and for philanthropy.

 

[Citizen-T]

That's not to say that his philanthropy is a publicity act. He's a generous guy with his own foundation, and his name is on the Gates-Buffet pledge.

 

[AnOutsider]

I'm sure that when he made the "bet" he knew he'd win, and he knew he'd give the money anyway.

IIRC, he didn't make the bet, the other guy did.

 

[JRod0802]

Good to hear that the donations will happen in any case.

The folks over at Jalopnik though are being true to their reputation (posted earlier on the investment thread):

Tesla Delivers One Model S To One Guy



Some of the comments there are filled with needless hate (directed both at Tesla and Musk).

Maybe belongs here?
Anti-Tesla Gibberish

 

[Doug_G]

I wonder if this bet is still on? Re-reading the original article, one of the 4 conditions was that the battery pack be swappable on the road (a la Better Place). I don't think that's going to happen within the first 6 months (at least, we haven't heard anything to that effect), and I'm not sure why Elon allowed that to be one of the conditions of the bet.

It's "easily" swappable, regardless of whether anyone actually does it.

 

[ohaq]

I am surprised that there is no mention of the bet again, now that delivery is 1 day away. Seems like Dan Neil will be losing the bet. Charity would be getting 1 million and a thousand dollars.

About the battery swap, seems its possible from the latest share holder meeting.

Reference: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1064697_betting-teslas-elon-musk-1-million-dan-neil-hopes-to-lose

 

[Citizen-T]

Maybe we should email Dan and ask him if he thinks he won or lost. I'm sure, as a journalist, his email address is readily available. Or perhaps message him on Facebook.

 

[Tommy]

Would it surprise anyone if Dan and Elon did a joint presentation to their charities of choice at this Friday's Fremont event after delivery of the Model S to their respective owners.

 

[Citizen-T]

Would it surprise anyone if Dan and Elon did a joint presentation to their charities of choice at this Friday's Fremont event after delivery of the Model S to their respective owners.

I think Elon is all about spreading out opportunities to get Tesla in the news. He doesn't need the bet with Dan tomorrow, he'll keep that in his back pocket for when there is a lull in news coming out of Tesla.

 

[hj-45]

Congratulations from Dan Neil in WSJ. A humble acknowledgement and payment on the bet.

To Elon Musk and the Model S: Congratulations - Drivers Seat - WSJ

 

[ohaq]

Congratulations from Dan Neil in WSJ. A humble acknowledgement and payment on the bet.

To Elon Musk and the Model S: Congratulations - Drivers Seat - WSJ

:smile:
Time for Elon to Pay up now.