The Biggest Challenge Facing Electric Cars Is Still Affordability

[TMC Staff]

Falling EV battery prices resulted in longer range. Not lower purchase prices. When Elon Musk announced job cuts at Tesla last week, he gave a clear reason for the belt-tightening. “We face an extremely difficult challenge: making our cars, batteries, and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels,” he wrote to his employees. “While we have...
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[SOULPEDL]

Great Scott... (of Navigant Research), what?

"...you’re likely to see prices stay at the same level for you the next four to five years.”

Implying the $35K Model 3 won't be out for another five years? You must be speaking of the auto industry in general which I do believe. I don't see any other auto company creating Giga Factories yet, and there must be something to be said about economies of scale and leading in this field (such as batteries chemistry that last longer, or eliminating cobalt etc...).

Maybe everyone else is just waiting for the cheaper batteries while Tesla cleans up. It's clear from recent GM and Ford restructuring that they're going where the money is for now by dropping compacts. So if they focus on Trucks and SUVs, how on earth are they going to make them electric with a profit... ever? This sure looks like short-term thinking.

Dealerships, Unions, outdated production lines, more ICE... I do see Bankruptcies on the horizon, only not with Tesla. Maybe that's what Ford meant today by "restructuring plans are in place, now we just have to execute to the plan."

 

[ewoodrick]

Sure, as with just about any new technology there is a cost reduction curve. What's new about this?

Nissan is selling the $30,000 Leaf, that's definitely getting in the neighborhood.
And the number of sub $12,000 used Leafs are pretty high.

The main issue is articles like this, that keep the general public thinking this way.

At least a lot of the press is now saying that EVs are here this year.

 

[mspohr]

Quartz: Automakers may overproduce 14 million electric cars by 2030.
Automakers may have completely overestimated how many people want electric cars


But the rush to expand EV manufacturing capacity is predicted to produce a glut of EVs, undermining automakers’ bottom lines. “Our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade,” states Deloitte. With every major manufacturer intending to mass-produce EVs, alongside more than a dozen new carmakers around the world, “Deloitte’s research suggests that the number of manufacturers is unsustainable.”

 

[Barklikeadog]

Quartz: Automakers may overproduce 14 million electric cars by 2030.
Automakers may have completely overestimated how many people want electric cars


But the rush to expand EV manufacturing capacity is predicted to produce a glut of EVs, undermining automakers’ bottom lines. “Our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade,” states Deloitte. With every major manufacturer intending to mass-produce EVs, alongside more than a dozen new carmakers around the world, “Deloitte’s research suggests that the number of manufacturers is unsustainable.”

it is kind of amazing how many are desperate to enter this industry

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

In the 2nd generation BEV ranges haven't so much increased, as moved to where they needed to be.
So now we'll just be watching for price reductions, as battery manufacturing scales up enough for sales volume to scale up.

 

[ricohman]

When the cheapest Model 3 is worth 3 Honda fits or a couple of Civics (in Canada anyway) EV's remain unaffordable to most.
If a glut occurs then so be it.
Maybe people will be able to afford an EV.

 

[CarlK]

Just keep cranking them out. EV's have a very long service life. In a few years the market will be flooded with under $20K used EV still in good shape.