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The catastrophe of FSD and erosion of trust in Tesla

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A suggestion as I have seen you mention pinball lane changes and trying to quick use wrong lanes to pass. Shut Off that mad max setting! On FSD beta I had nothing but grief till I turned that crap off and lowered to mild. Still passes slow cars but Stops the random pinball constant passes.
I’ve tried that setting on all options with no change to pinballing. The only thing it does is slow down lane change when coming up on a slower vehicle, sitting behind it for a bit before deciding to go around it in a faster lane.
 
Hatred is a strong word. Valid criticism is the right word.

You and your ilk have a very thin skin. That’s all. I’d say your day of reckoning will come one day, given your driving habits (see below).

Moreover, your claims of perfection in Tesla aren’t widely agreed upon, even among super fans of Tesla.
Your suggestions of using steering wheel weights and accelerating in tight turns on AP using your foot when the AP doesn’t want to go any faster, will definitely not be agreed to by most rational folks here.



Tesla wholeheartedly disagrees with you, otherwise steering wheel weights would be available for sale on their website.

If you are so hyper aware, you’d do okay keeping your hands on the wheel.

Your driving habits are not a factor, but your extreme rudeness, inability to hear valid criticism, coupled with dangerous suggestions and claims about 100% perfect AP all factor in together.
Just to prove the point that I drive safely regardless of what your personal opinion of “safety” is, I’m ranked #1 for safety score and amount of miles on both teslafi and teslascope. Literally the only metrics of “safety” we have in teslas opinion, and I’ve aced it above anyone else on record. And none of the metrics are affected by the wheel weight.

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I’m sure glad you’re as you put it “getting over this wait for FSD Beta” in another thread because your “Spamming” of the fact that you’re number one in both Safety Score and mileage on both Teslascope and TeslaFi is getting a little old and obnoxious. I get it….you’re PROUD. You’ve literally spammed this same thing including your “plaque on the wall“ screenshots in 4 different threads this morning. It’s not necessary. I don’t need to see it in EVERY thread I look at. Thank you. 🙏 Good Luck and I hope you join us in FSD Beta soon.

Ski
 
Just saw this thread. The OP made a sober assessment of the situation. Elon said that FSD and Starship were the two most difficult projects he’d ever done, but now he’s playing with Twitter? Not a healthy sign. Everyone knows that Gwynne Shotwell is in charge of SpaceX and they could get rid of Elon tomorrow and not miss a beat, but Tesla doesn’t have that luxury. No new cars since 2020? Putting the brakes on selling the Y? This is a crisis and he doesn’t know it.
 
because those testers, who are already the best of the best driving demographic, are a human backup safety system for the software.
Do you believe there would be some incidents if all 60k get in, set course, and play on their phones?
Irrelevant .. FSD beta is designed as a driver assist system, not a driver replacement. You are getting your SAE levels confused. And it would detect you playing on your phone and disconnect (as it uses both steering nudges AND cabin camera to detect driver inattention).

As for "best of the best", the drivers were chosen based on criteria for being good testers, not necessarily good drivers. And even good drivers get into accidents (it only takes one idiot to create an accident), so again your logic is flawed.

The fact is, we are now 6+ months into the beta program .. where are all the accidents that all the doom-and-gloom posters have been predicting? Let's be pessimistic and assume only 10,000 of those 60k testers are actually doing any testing .. and also be pessimistic and assume they do only 10 miles of testing a week. That still works out at 14,000 miles every day and its probably much much higher. And we both know the press would be all over any accident with hysterical headlines. Seems to me the car is doing pretty well.
 
Irrelevant .. FSD beta is designed as a driver assist system, not a driver replacement. You are getting your SAE levels confused. And it would detect you playing on your phone and disconnect (as it uses both steering nudges AND cabin camera to detect driver inattention).

As for "best of the best", the drivers were chosen based on criteria for being good testers, not necessarily good drivers. And even good drivers get into accidents (it only takes one idiot to create an accident), so again your logic is flawed.

The fact is, we are now 6+ months into the beta program .. where are all the accidents that all the doom-and-gloom posters have been predicting? Let's be pessimistic and assume only 10,000 of those 60k testers are actually doing any testing .. and also be pessimistic and assume they do only 10 miles of testing a week. That still works out at 14,000 miles every day and its probably much much higher. And we both know the press would be all over any accident with hysterical headlines. Seems to me the car is doing pretty well.
The average Tesla buyer is male age 35-65, family and six figure income. There is no flaw. This is the safest driving demographic on the road no matter what they drive, and they spend more for safety features.
The general population has millions of teens, early 20s driving, elderly, avg car 12 years old, cost under 20k, poor decision makers, lower income etc etc. That group skews the numbers severely.
I don't see the flaw in saying that these 'testers' are a select group from what is already the safest driving demographic.
 
The average Tesla buyer is male age 35-65, family and six figure income. There is no flaw. This is the safest driving demographic on the road no matter what they drive, and they spend more for safety features.
The general population has millions of teens, early 20s driving, elderly, avg car 12 years old, cost under 20k, poor decision makers, lower income etc etc. That group skews the numbers severely.
I don't see the flaw in saying that these 'testers' are a select group from what is already the safest driving demographic.

Again, so what? There are plenty of manually-driven Teslas involved in accidents, even with your uber-super-safe "select" group (of which I am highly dubious, given the demographics of EV buyers in places like Silicon Valley and SF). As I noted, it only takes one bad driver to cause an accident (perhaps one of your other demographics). So my point remains .. where are the FSD beta accidents to back up the wild claims made in the OP? We easily have had enough time and miles driven by now, and yet we get .. what?

#1 .. A tester panics, over-reacts when taking back control, and drives the car off the road, then tries to claim the car did it.
#2 .. A car drives over a couple of plastic lane divider poles in SJ at a very hard to navigate intersection deliberately chosen as a torture test for the car.

There may have been other accidents that I'm not aware of, but there are dozens of reporters eager for ANY hint of an FSD beta accident (Andrew Hawkins over at the Verge jumps at any and every opportunity to attack Tesla). Can you offer any other examples? If not, what was the basis for the OP?
 
So let me get this straight..we are supposed to believe that with the "current hardware" installed on todays teslas, these cars are going to hit level 5 capabilities to include "NYC to LA with no human input". With JUST the cameras/sensors installed today? A literal robotaxi service capability with JUST todays hardware?

But yet other companies have to use this much cameras sensors?

Elon is a wild dude. 🤣 🤣

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So let me get this straight..we are supposed to believe that with the "current hardware" installed on todays teslas, these cars are going to hit level 5 capabilities to include "NYC to LA with no human input". With JUST the cameras/sensors installed today? A literal robotaxi service capability with JUST todays hardware?

But yet other companies have to use this much cameras sensors?

Elon is a wild dude. 🤣 🤣

View attachment 805737
Are you most concerned with appearance, or capability?
 
So let me get this straight..we are supposed to believe that with the "current hardware" installed on todays teslas, these cars are going to hit level 5 capabilities to include "NYC to LA with no human input". With JUST the cameras/sensors installed today? A literal robotaxi service capability with JUST todays hardware?

But yet other companies have to use this much cameras sensors?



FWIW none of those TONS OF SENSORS companies have done NYC to LA either.

Likewise SpaceX is launching rockets at record pace with much cheaper and streamlined methods than "legacy" folks like Boeing and NASA, and doing so very successfully.

I'm not saying we're gonna get NYC to LA on current Tesla HW either--- but the idea whoever throws more $ at having the most complex hw always wins is... not accurate.
 
So let me get this straight..we are supposed to believe that with the "current hardware" installed on todays teslas, these cars are going to hit level 5 capabilities to include "NYC to LA with no human input". With JUST the cameras/sensors installed today? A literal robotaxi service capability with JUST todays hardware?

But yet other companies have to use this much cameras sensors?

Elon is a wild dude. 🤣 🤣

View attachment 805737
NY to LA will be easy...just use the tunnel
 
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Are you most concerned with appearance, or capability?
Capability. And while Im nowhere NEAR an expert on autonomous driving (or even regular driving..LOL)...I have sense enough to know. That whats in place TODAY on a 2022 Tesla? Is NOT going to be enough to do what the CEO of Tesla has promised, what FSD will be "capable" of doing.
 
I actually think they could do a cross county trip today. They could selectively plan a route that would be mostly interstate where FSD/AP excels. A few exits & entrances to get to chargers and if you had a few backup/surrounding cars to capture video footage, you could use them to strategically block other cars if needed to create some space/breathing room for the FSD car. It's really not a stretch. In my experience, FSD WILL get from point A to point B without intervention, but it will not do it the same way I would which is why I frequently disengage to not block traffic or frustrate other drivers.

FSD is miles & years away from nailing the difficult cases like merging in heavy traffic and unprotected left turn through medians etc. but for the majority of the happy paths, its pretty close.
 
I actually think they could do a cross county trip today. They could selectively plan a route that would be mostly interstate where FSD/AP excels. A few exits & entrances to get to chargers and if you had a few backup/surrounding cars to capture video footage, you could use them to strategically block other cars if needed to create some space/breathing room for the FSD car. It's really not a stretch. In my experience, FSD WILL get from point A to point B without intervention, but it will not do it the same way I would which is why I frequently disengage to not block traffic or frustrate other drivers.

FSD is miles & years away from nailing the difficult cases like merging in heavy traffic and unprotected left turn through medians etc. but for the majority of the happy paths, its pretty close.
Dont forget the trip has to be done when the weather and visibility is within the right conditions for the lil cameras to work well..
 
Dont forget the trip has to be done when the weather and visibility is within the right conditions for the lil cameras to work well..
Very true. My point is can anyone drive coast to coast with FSD today? Absolutely not. Could Tesla carefully orchestrate a controlled coast to coast drive? Probably. The number of conditions they would need to control to be successful might result in the accomplishment being perceived negatively instead of positively which I assume is the reason they haven't done it yet.
 
Just a quick sanity check here.
The cameras in my MS can see a lot more than I can see and can do so simultaneously. The image processing core digests all those different camera angles continuously without feeling the need to check its email. In short, my MS vision dramatically exceeds my own and yet I can drive from NY to LA without intervention from my wife although she would likely dispute the need for intervention.

So, what is missing here is not a sensor suite that can do the job but a brain that and work with the existing MS sensor suite that far exceeds mine.

The question for me is if the processing power is sufficient to out perform the average human to a significant enough degree that we will accept the machine's carnage over that of the average person.

It seems to me that Elon is correct when he says things like Lidar is nothing more than an expensive crutch. Do the job right and you do not need more than vision.
 
The cameras in my MS can see a lot more than I can see and can do so simultaneously.
What is the definition of see? What the eye sees is much more than pixels. A billion years of evolution help it understand what the pixels mean. What resolution does your eyes have versus the cameras? Some will say that resolution of the eye is hundreds of megapixels while FSD camera is 1.2 megapixels, with poor color accuracy. And there are issues like dynamic range.

The question for me is if the processing power is sufficient to out perform the average human to a significant enough degree that we will accept the machine's carnage over that of the average person.
In the long run processing power will have less of an impact than software capabilities. In other words: even a datacenter with unlimited processing power isn't going to do L5. Maybe L4 with lidar since Waymo has that working to a tiny degree.

It seems to me that Elon is correct when he says things like Lidar is nothing more than an expensive crutch. Do the job right and you do not need more than vision.
Agree with Elon, but setting false expectations that it will happen in 2018 doesn't help. And continuing to make the same mistake over and over again is ridiculous. If cost of lidar continues to drop then I won't be agreeing.
 
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Just a quick sanity check here.
The cameras in my MS can see a lot more than I can see and can do so simultaneously. The image processing core digests all those different camera angles continuously without feeling the need to check its email. In short, my MS vision dramatically exceeds my own

It seems to me that Elon is correct when he says things like Lidar is nothing more than an expensive crutch. Do the job right and you do not need more than vision.
That could be backed up if they had done the job right. But when my MS hits the brakes hard for a shadow, I no longer have confidence in the system or the company that released a system that will brake for shadows.
 
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Some will say that resolution of the eye is hundreds of megapixels while FSD camera is 1.2 megapixels, with poor color accuracy. And there are issues like dynamic range.
Where did you get "hundreds of megapixels" from? One very small central area of you retina (the fovea) can see in pretty high resolution (estimates vary from 5-20 megapixels, but its a bit of an apples to oranges comparison), the rest is much lower and/or optimized for other tasks (peripheral vision, for example, picks up movement and flicker far better). A camera can see as well out the "corners" as it can in the middle. As for color accuracy, basically the car needs to see colors well enough to pick up signage and signals, we're not talking appreciation of subtle shade differences here. Finally, car cameras have excellent dynamic range AND the ability to change that range far more rapidly then the human eye (ever looked at the rear-view camera view on a dark night and compared it to what you can see out the the rear-view mirror?).