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The catastrophe of FSD and erosion of trust in Tesla

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Knowing what it took to get SpaceX to where it is today. Knowing what it took to take Tesla to where it is today. Knowing that he seems to be hands on/engineer, etc.

Do we REALLY believe that he truly, 100% thought it was close? Do we TRULY think he thought we would be able to summon our cars from NYC to LA by 2017? Do we TRULY think he thought Tesla's would be driving around on the streets EMPTY, going to pickup/deliver humans by 3 years ago? Do we TRULY think he genuinely had honestly miscalculated FSD capabilities that badly?

Or is it more realistic to believe, that he knew by making those statements/combined with peoples knowledge of his prior successes("i have credibility" aspect), that those statements would equal hundreds of millions of dollars coming in from consumers for FSD purchases?
I don't think it's either. You suggest a deliberately lie just to trick customers. I don't know what it is, but I don't think it's that.
 
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Do we REALLY believe that he truly, 100% thought it was close? Do we TRULY think he thought we would be able to summon our cars from NYC to LA by 2017? Do we TRULY think he thought Tesla's would be driving around on the streets EMPTY, going to pickup/deliver humans by 3 years ago? Do we TRULY think he genuinely had honestly miscalculated FSD capabilities that badly?

Or is it more realistic to believe, that he knew by making those statements/combined with peoples knowledge of his prior successes("i have credibility" aspect), that those statements would equal hundreds of millions of dollars coming in from consumers for FSD purchases?
The reality of course is its somewhere in between ... you want to see Elon as a cynical manipulator and FSD as some kind of delusion/trick for .. reasons. In reality Elon did believe, at least partly, in some of his hype, and probably still does. If that were not true we would not have SpaceX or Tesla today, and the world would be a less interesting place (sure, someone else could have done a Tesla, but who? Certainly not the mainstream car companies.).

I for one never believed his dates, but I also dont pay much attention to people who say "it can't be done" based on no better reasoning than Elon himself uses. Go back and read all the pre-FSD posts in these forums "proving" that the car would not be able to see traffic signals (really?) and that it could not see far enough down the road to make safe turns etc etc. For that matter go look at all the seasoned space engineers who laughed when Elon claimed he could land and reuse his rockets.

To be an innovator you need a certain amount of naïveté, otherwise you'd probably not even make a start on something as complex as SpaceX or Tesla .. but what you also need, of course, is deep pockets and the determination to go the distance. Like it or not, Elon is successful not just because he has a vision, but because he is just naive enough and well-funded.
 
I don't think it's either. You suggest a deliberately lie just to trick customers. I don't know what it is, but I don't think it's that.
Not suggesting "a deliberate lie". But certainly more than "lets aim for the moon. Lets shoot high". That is something you do internally. With customers, you typically at a minimum, set proper expectations and meet them. Even better, you underpromise and over deliver.

But to repeatedly make claims that you almost certainly know are not attainable anywhere CLOSE to the timeframe you keep stating, and when those claims are essentially connected in some way to large amounts of $? One can understand the growing skepticism, growing # of articles about FSD, and even loyal influencers starting to change their narratives (Kim Java, others) about FSD...
 
Wow, I must be doing the math wrong: if Tesla sells 1 million cars with an FSD rate of 7%, that's 70,000 cars. At 12k each, that would be $840 million in revenue? Pretty decent chunk of cash.

I don't know what the actual FSD rate is, just a number that popped up in google.
 
Wow, I must be doing the math wrong: if Tesla sells 1 million cars with an FSD rate of 7%, that's 70,000 cars. At 12k each, that would be $840 million in revenue? Pretty decent chunk of cash.

I don't know what the actual FSD rate is, just a number that popped up in google.
FSD was a lot less for a long time .. I paid $6k for example. Also, per GAAP Tesla cannot realize all that revenue until FSD ships. And I'd bet the FSD R&D investment is far more than your $840 million estimate.
 
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May I suggest some reading on project management? That's one of the capital sins, gold plating. I understand your frustration, but that's just silly to expect; you have the right to be disappointed with not meeting the promised and agreed upon goals, but over-deliver ain't good business practice by any means...
Has ZERO to do with “project mgmt”.

Two random examples:
- finding out your total realistic real world range of your ev is typically going to be signicantly lower than advertised (Tesla) or more than advertised (Porsche Taycan, Ford Mach E.
- ordering your 6 figure car expecting and receiving the advertised top speed (Porsche Taycan, Ford Mach E, every other EV on the planet) or ordering your car and once said car starts being delivered, THEN being told you will have to spend more $ on additional hardware upgrades in order to get the top speed and a year later, you still aren’t able to get the advertised top speed.(tesla). *note. Attempting to defend the behavior by saying no one needs to go as fast as the top speed was advertised by Tesla,is a cop out and irrelevant.

You decide..
 
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Has ZERO to do with “project mgmt”.

Two random examples:
- finding out your total realistic real world range of your ev is typically going to be signicantly lower than advertised (Tesla) or more than advertised (Porsche Taycan, Ford Mach E.
- ordering your 6 figure car expecting and receiving the advertised top speed (Porsche Taycan, Ford Mach E, every other EV on the planet) or ordering your car and once said car starts being delivered, THEN being told you will have to spend more $ on additional hardware upgrades in order to get the top speed and a year later, you still aren’t able to get the advertised top speed.(tesla). *note. Attempting to defend the behavior by saying no one needs to go as fast as the top speed was advertised by Tesla,is a cop out and irrelevant.

You decide...
If you are that unhappy, no one should force you to drive it; luckily the used car market is good enough that you should make a nice profit and order one of the: "Porsche Taycan, Ford Mach E, every other EV on the planet". Way better than complaining for years on a forum about the car you have and hate. Take action, vote with your wallet but stop putting thousand of posts about how unhappy you are. There is more to the life as far as I care. May I suggest doing your research ahead before repeating the same story on another car forum?

And ROTFLMAO to the
Has ZERO to do with “project mgmt”.
 
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If you are that unhappy, no one should force you to drive it; luckily the used car market is good enough that you should make a nice profit and order one of the: "Porsche Taycan, Ford Mach E, every other EV on the planet". Way better than complaining for years on a forum about the car you have and hate. Take action, vote with your wallet but stop putting thousand of posts about how unhappy you are. There is more to the life as far as I care. May I suggest doing your research ahead before repeating the same story on another car forum?

And ROTFLMAO to the
Translation: “I have zero rebuttal to your points. None”


Per usual, I win again. 😂😂😂
 
Has ZERO to do with “project mgmt”.

Two random examples:
- finding out your total realistic real world range of your ev is typically going to be signicantly lower than advertised (Tesla) or more than advertised (Porsche Taycan, Ford Mach E.
- ordering your 6 figure car expecting and receiving the advertised top speed (Porsche Taycan, Ford Mach E, every other EV on the planet) or ordering your car and once said car starts being delivered, THEN being told you will have to spend more $ on additional hardware upgrades in order to get the top speed and a year later, you still aren’t able to get the advertised top speed.(tesla). *note. Attempting to defend the behavior by saying no one needs to go as fast as the top speed was advertised by Tesla,is a cop out and irrelevant.

You decide..
So given that every experience you have with Tesla and their products has been bad, and their cars dont meet your needs/expectations, and Ford et al are far better in every possible way ... why not just go buy a Mach-E (or similar) and be happy?

Then you can leave all us poor deluded fan-boys and Elon-apologists in the cave and walk (drive?) out into the light.
 
a CNC machine is not what I referred to. In our industrial automation, the machines were designed to inspect, measure and determine the disposition on the next step of the component being manufactured at a rapid rate of few hundreds per minute with a tolerance of +/- 0.0002 inches.


This is a weird rebuttal since it confirms exactly what I said.

Factory automation has super tight tolerances.

FSD has no need for that. There's no situation where a difference of 0.0002 inches will matter when driving a car properly or safely. You shouldn't ever be even ONE inch close to anything, let alone a tiny fraction of one.

So comparing the precision of one to the other makes no sense.





A car going at 40mph will travel 58 feet per second, and the braking distance is 80feet. A life will be lost at this rate. The reaction time of the FSD system needs to be detect the human at least 110feet ahead of time in order to brake safely.

Why would you think it can't?

The main forward camera has a range of 150 meters- which is almost 500 feet.

This is, in fact, the likely reason for the current cap on autopilot speed at 85mph-- the limit of that specific camera... (the previous radar based system had a slightly longer range- 160 meters- and a slightly higher top speed, 90 mph)


Plus, of course, there shouldn't be pedestrians on roads you're driving these speeds.... so at slower speeds the camera can see far more than enough forward to brake in time.
 
So given that every experience you have with Tesla and their products has been bad, and their cars dont meet your needs/expectations, and Ford et al are far better in every possible way ... why not just go buy a Mach-E (or similar) and be happy?
In debate terms, your reply is called a crab dribble. Ergo, that has zero to do with the topic which is…setting expectations properly and delivering upon those expectations. Comparing and contrasting of companies that align with that principle against companies that pull the Lucy and football move to Charlie brown(the customer).

And the concept that because a person owns a service or product, they are to not comment when said company does wrong (ergo, deceiptive marketing), is absurd. Some of YOU may keep quiet about it, but not me. I’ll point it out, compare to other companies, and some of you will agree, many won’t. I prefer those who DONT agree. Let’s me know I’ve struck nerves. 🤣🤣

Simple.

Whose next?
 
In debate terms, your reply is called a crab dribble. Ergo, that has zero to do with the topic which is…setting expectations properly and delivering upon those expectations. Comparing and contrasting of companies that align with that principle against companies that pull the Lucy and football move to Charlie brown(the customer).

And the concept that because a person owns a service or product, they are to not comment when said company does wrong (ergo, deceiptive marketing), is absurd. Some of YOU may keep quiet about it, but not me. I’ll point it out, compare to other companies, and some of you will agree, many won’t. I prefer those who DONT agree. Let’s me know I’ve struck nerves. 🤣🤣

Simple.

Whose next?
Yet my point remains .. why do you still own a Tesla if they are as bad as you so often state? And I said nothing at all about what you should or could say.

As for terminology, a person who does nothing but post deliberately provocative opinions has a name too....

(Oh, and its "Who's next" btw. Simple.)
 
Yet my point remains .. why do you still own a Tesla if they are as bad as you so often state? And I said nothing at all about what you should or could say.

As for terminology, a person who does nothing but post deliberately provocative opinions has a name too....

(Oh, and its "Who's next" btw. Simple.)
Weak attempt. Because if you follow my posts so closely (and you do), you’d see for example, a recent review I did on may 7 of my current ownership experience overall of my refresh s. To include highlighting acceleration, suspension, interior quality. So your statement of “you state that the car is nothing but bad”, is a red herring and blatantly false.

But does that give me a reason to not acknowledge that compared to other companies that simply deliver on their marketing promises, Tesla has proven time and time again to overpromise and under deliver? (Or not deliver at all. Hi roadster and cybertruck). Hell no. And if you don’t like me pointing it out? Use the ignore button for my posts. It literally is that simple.

But like most? You won’t. 😁😁
 
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Weak attempt. Because if you follow my posts so closely (and you do), you’d see for example, a recent review I did on may 7 of my current ownership experience overall of my refresh s. To include highlighting acceleration, suspension, interior quality. So your statement of “you state that the car is nothing but bad”, is a red herring and blatantly false.

But does that give me a reason to not acknowledge that compared to other companies that simply deliver on their marketing promises, Tesla has proven time and time again to overpromise and under deliver? (Or not deliver at all. Hi roadster and cybertruck). Hell no. And if you don’t like me pointing it out? Use the ignore button for my posts. It literally is that simple.

But like most? You won’t. 😁😁
You make excellent points, all valid. My question to you is this: what's your goal?

The free market will take care of Tesla. Nothing any of us say will change it. We can vote with our dollars to affect change, but that's it.

So, sell your Tesla and buy another manufacturer vehicle. Tell your friends to do the same. Otherwise, not sure why everyone here is arguing and attacking others over issues they cannot resolve.

Some people have terrible experiences with their Tesla. And others, like me, have had very positive experiences. However, many people with negative experiences falsely project their problems on everyone else, stating that all Tesla's must have the problem.

For every YouTube video showing the car failing, there are videos showing it performing very well. I'm not an expert on the cars, so I don't understand why some work well and some fail. Build quality? Software issues or config issues? 🤔
 
Yet my point remains .. why do you still own a Tesla if they are as bad as you so often state? And I said nothing at all about what you should or could say.

As for terminology, a person who does nothing but post deliberately provocative opinions has a name too....

(Oh, and its "Who's next" btw. Simple.)
One can own a product and even love said product even though there is plenty to complain about. The "stop complaining and buy a Nissan Leaf" argument is just lazy. If you don't want to read complaints, maybe skip the thread titled "The catastrophe of FSD and erosion of trust in Tesla."

(Oh, and it's "it's" btw. Simple.) ;)
 
If you don't want to read complaints, maybe skip the thread titled "The catastrophe of FSD and erosion of trust in Tesla."
I have no problems with complaints, I've made quite a few myself. They are useful when they assist others in making decisions and (perhaps only very occasionally) boil up to Tesla and lead to fixes/improvements we can all enjoy. it's also refreshing to get others perspective, as it challenges assumptions that might perhaps not have been obvious, all of which is good. But sometimes these dialogs can, for some participants, flip from being an exchange of opinions into being an all-out attempt to "win" an argument by whatever means regardless of the merits of the argument, which ultimately is both destructive to the dialog and somewhat childish. That's when I'm reminded of Churchills definition of a fanatic as "someone who can't change their mind and wont change the subject" :)
 
To return to the thread subject...if a someone purchases FSD with the intent of unsupervised or even semi-unsupervised driving then they should have their license revoked...because clearly they do not understand the rules.
Tesla’s beta warning is like the referee telling the fighters that they must protect themselves at all times...just because the referee calls break...doesn’t mean that the other guy is listening
 
An example of the current random trend of opinions on FSD...

 
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