And you still don't get it? Every electric car will sell as fast as it can be produced. Tesla is the only pure play EV investment AND has the highest EV production. For the next five years. There is a straight line from that to "stock go up". After that who knows, but "great for five years" is pretty good in the stock markets.
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The coming Tesla cash cow and the short burn of the century
- Thread starter DaveT
- Start date
Yup. There's no way they'll work out the brake issues, and indeed the characterization of needing service 7-8 times per charge is entirely accurate.
Just they same way that on the Model S they never addressed drive unit issues and as a result the car and company are both a flop....
Oh. Wait.
Nevermind.
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See but this is what I was curious about when I came to this forum.
Everything the majors have mastered, from supply chain vs vertically integrated, to freaking braking, to mass production, to panel alignment, to quality control, to not releasing buggy features:
Your (not you specifically, general you) response: Oh Tesla will figure it out super soon, don't be ridiculous
Flip it around
Buggy App to unlock doors that Tesla uses:
Your response: THE MAJORS WILL NEVER CATCH UP!!!!!!
***
It is weird to me, a lot of people on this forum seem like very intelligent successful people, but how do you not see how biased this view is?
4.8 million Fiat-Chrysler cars recalled for a software problem. GM kills people because the ignition can switch itself off; the fix is an extra link in the keyring. Ford F150 supply is about to dry up because of a fire in a supplier. I think your confidence in mainstream is at best misplaced.
But that's not the point you were making, was it?...
You said you wanted "working brakes". They do, but they can be better. And tesla has promised they will be.
You said you didn't want to stop for service every 40 miles. That's not only hyperbole, it's extreme.
You said you want value not novelty. That's a rather subjective criteria now isn't it? Indeed it's the "novel" approach to much Tesla has done that many people attribute value too. Example: OTA firmware updates or a giant touchscreen with the majority of controls.
There may be some growing pains... but it's not like Bolt isn't being recalled for wiper motor updates, the BMW's are being recalled for fire risk, etc... as a matter of fact, unless you have some stats otherwise, your anecdotal comment here may not indicate anything more substantial than other new car rollouts experience.
But Tesla has an ability to innovate and iterate rapidly to provide improvements and fixes.
So, you lumped everyone in to the "can't catch up" crowd. While undoubtedly other manufacturers will catch upwith individual features, Tesla isn't standing still. And thus far, there's not been much demonstration of will on the part of other manufacturers to run at a similar pace. So, although I was not one of those folks, for the foreseeable future, I don't see a lot of folks in the position to catch up.
It’s because every time we drive our Tesla we’re confronted with reality (not you of course).
Brando
Active Member
biased view?
Model S introduced 2012. Wins Motor Trend Car of the Year 2013. Consider MAJORS response 5 years in.
Perhaps at the end of 2018 we shall WHICH MAJOR is catching up. the Bolt? If GM can mass produce? (or should I say LG Chem?)
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
Chevy (to be fair, it’s LG Chevy) Bolt fabled “starts at $37,500” base unit does not exist. If it were to be made, sold and delivered to my total shock, ...it shouldn’t exist because it does not include any (ANY) dcfc. Have we forgotten? Bolt’s charging ability anything above 7.2 kilowatts:
BE IT KNOWN THAT no one gets to gripe, snipe, or hold Tesla’s feet to any heat about when the M3 $35,000 base trim which mithra-frothing includes Supercharging Enabled is going to be obtainable, OR concern troll about whether such time is in or out of the whole entire mithra-frothing year starting July 2018 that a US Tax Credit of some magnitude, still applies. Exception being the four or five or thirty real reservation holders who actually are going to purchase a totally un-optioned M3.
And yes I do actually see a lot of comments where people (or kochbots) are concern trolling this. I have seen one base model vehicle in use in my entire lifetime. I don’t think they are actually a thing for any practical purpose, just for marketing copy. Sure it’s handy for comparisons. But. Again. Where dcfc ain’t in parity, there ain’t a comparison.
End Rant Mode Everybody, bulls and bears, have a good weekend!
IS.
OP.
TION.
AL.
Until LGM Bolt base model is actually built, and available, and includes DCFC or at least a BANNER disclaimer warning that it won’t do any Level higher than Level 2... OP.
TION.
AL.
BE IT KNOWN THAT no one gets to gripe, snipe, or hold Tesla’s feet to any heat about when the M3 $35,000 base trim which mithra-frothing includes Supercharging Enabled is going to be obtainable, OR concern troll about whether such time is in or out of the whole entire mithra-frothing year starting July 2018 that a US Tax Credit of some magnitude, still applies. Exception being the four or five or thirty real reservation holders who actually are going to purchase a totally un-optioned M3.
And yes I do actually see a lot of comments where people (or kochbots) are concern trolling this. I have seen one base model vehicle in use in my entire lifetime. I don’t think they are actually a thing for any practical purpose, just for marketing copy. Sure it’s handy for comparisons. But. Again. Where dcfc ain’t in parity, there ain’t a comparison.
End Rant Mode Everybody, bulls and bears, have a good weekend!
jelloslug
Active Member
But the "majors" have not mastered any of those things. Ford had to shut down THREE assembly factories that produce the best selling vehicle in the country because of a fire at a single supplier. That same fire also shut down or reduced the output of several other manufacturers factories. BMW just recalled millions of cars because they randomly burst into flames. VW LIED about fuel economy and as a result, there are dozens and dozens of lots with thousands of buy back cars in each one awaiting their fate. Chrysler just recalled over 4 million cars because the cruise control can get stuck on. Don't talk about how other companies have mastered anything...
Skip the nevermind. Reality understands. Tesla is just like NSU was with the Ro80 in 1967. I remember changing rotor seals roughly once per tank of gasoline. NSU ended out a failed piece of Audi in 1969, and the NSU brand disappeared. Tesla is like that, they'll fail and be absorbed by FCA, also failing, but for different reasons. So, there it is!!! if I buy it, the company goes broke!
Examples: AMC Rebel, DAF 33, Rover 2000TC, Triumph TR-3, not a car but a Beagle 206S.Maybe you all should be worried because I have one Tesla with two more on order. My track record does raise questions, doesn't it?
Luckily my stockpicking record is much, much better with not a failed company in my portfolio ever.,,,and I'm very long Tesla.
bdy0627
Active Member
Why yes he will continue to do just that because it is the narrative that has been cultivated by Tesla critics/OEMs/shorts. Actual facts are more of an annoyance than anything else when you are focused on supporting a certain story. Just keep making the same statements regardless of facts or figure out a way to make the facts somehow seem to support your story. At some point when enough facts can't be ignored or distorted, it all falls apart. We aren't quite there yet but we are getting closer. See the VW dieselgate scam for more details on how to do this.
I do see the bias. The confirmation bias evident in your interpreting the Tesla manufacturing issues not really different from ones that all mfrs have (see ggrs examples above re Fiat software GM ignition, etc.) as confirming your belief that Tesla will fail.
How do YOU not see how [confirmatory] biased YOUR view is?
Really truly. Your post above is exactly a textbook example of confirmation bias. While ignoring that Model 3 has ramped faster that the Bolt, outsells the Audi and BMW and soon Mercedes competitors, etc. you focus on the key fob and old news on early panel fit. Textbook confirmation bias.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
So I just looked up what it takes to get listed on S&P 500.
To qualify for the index, a company must have:
- a market cap of $5.3 billion (TSLA is at $46.2B or so)
- its headquarters in the U.S. (check, TSLA has US HQ)
- the value of its market capitalization trade annually (I'll assume this happens already)
- at least a quarter-million of its shares trade in each of the previous six months (check, does that in a day)
- most of its shares in the public’s hands (check)
- at least half a year since its initial public offering (check)
- Four straight quarters of positive as-reported earnings. (not yet, maybe in early or mid 2019?)
In practice, expect August 2019, since Q2 2018 will be unprofitable. That said, front-running S&P inclusion is a common strategy, so the effect will show up before the actual inclusion, likely June or July 2019.
Not quite (most sites have this wrong).
It should be positive over the sum of the last 4 quarters. And should be positive the most recent quarter.
From the official document.
Technically, they could add TSLA now...
Hmmm. Personally, if I were invested in opposition of a bunch of very intelligent, successful people, I’d be very, very nervous.
Just to clarify.
In California, where folk buy EVs, a 2018 Bolt EV with CCS is selling for about $34,000 with destination in several colors before govt incentives and taxes, but before GM Points, Farm discount, etc. You can get one tonight if you can hop a plane in the next hour.
The Panasonic/Tesla Model 3SR is not available for any price, nor the non PUP editions, nor the AWD editions. There is one and only one model of the Model 3. It is the Long Range PUP RWD. There is no other versions. If you need one for an area that does not have (or need) Supercharging (not forced induction), you cannot save money by opting out, it's like PUP, mandatory for all users.
And as I've found out, the Long Range PUP is not available for retail sale either. It could be in the future, but not now.
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Emotionally / Public Opinion wise they probably want to wait for Tesla to have 2 positive quarters back to back or one really really nice one so people don't question the decision (or they have a better reply for that question).
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
The squeeze is likely to start after the second straight profitable quarter as it shows it's not a one quarter gaming of financials and is also prelude to S&P inclusion. Nobody is expecting a short squeeze in the next two quarters I think unless Elon pulls a serious rabbit out of the hat.
K_Dizzle
Member
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