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The Elon Musk Show

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EVer Hopeful

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Jul 7, 2021
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History isn't as clear cut as "Tesla did it and everyone followed"

Well I didn't buy FSD. The lane following thing is scary enough for me!

and tbh, I think door to door might be somewhere in the future ... in the distant future, but that really it's the wrong road to go down (no pun intended). I think a better way would have been to classify roads as FSD capable and have statutory requirements for the maintenance of those roads with standards for the upkeep of markings and signage etc. The roads would have regular transponders installed as would the cars travelling on them so that everything could "talk" to everything else. In the UK, maybe start with the Motorway system, then expand to the A roads. It would give the technology time to mature as well as giving the motoring public the chance to get used to a car driving itself

I also think the other manufacturers had enough resources to put a toe in the EV water early on, just in case, but weren't really expecting anything to come of it and arguably made a half-hearted product. Now some manufacturers are positioning themselves as EV contenders or even leaders in the field where previously they did everything they could to kill off the technology. That doesn't sit well with me

So really more like Tesla did and everyone else was dragged kicking and screaming behind them
 

GeorgeSymonds

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So really more like Tesla did and everyone else was dragged kicking and screaming behind them
Did you actually read what I wrote?

How Nissan, BMW and Renault were all developing their cars and investing in infrastructure as far back as 2010, and Mercedes invested heavily in Tesla and provided a parts bin to get the MS going? To you that’s ‘kicking and screaming’?
 

EVer Hopeful

Active Member
Jul 7, 2021
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Yes I read it, though I still don't agree with you

You mention 4 manufacturers, all of which are easily big enough to say "Maybe we should drop a bit of cash into this, just in case" Nissan developed the Leaf with 75 miles of range - you forgot Honda and the Electric Fit ... with 40 miles of range. Hardly serious contenders

I'm thinking more of Ford who did everything they could to downgrade CAFE standards so they could keep selling their trucks and huge land yachts. Now they're trying to convince everyone that they're at the forefront of EV technology

Had Tesla not been a success, how many other manufacturers would still have anything to do with EVs?
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
1,452
11,215
Northampton, England
We don’t always agree, but I thought better of you touting this type of rubbish. Tesla “sell” most of its quarters production in one month, just take a look at Julys figure , Tesla sold something like 6 cars, just 6, that month.

Look at YTD figures and I don’t think tesla have a car in the top 10, and Tesla have just 2 models for sale in Europe, the competition often have 10 or more.
SMMT - Model Y at number 8 in top sellers. 8,300 in September and 20,600 year to date, so accelerating.

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You do realise those videos were sourced from Tesla direct because the features on show weren't publically available at the time?

The youtube dates are when they were posted. These come from a time in the window between AP1 being killed off after Joshua Brown decapitated himself and Mobileye saying enough is enough to Tesla, and Tesla releasing any software to owners. The videos were released as the promise to what EAP and FSD would bring before anyone had chance to use the actual software.
OK - you got me on the Source of the videos, the first one at least is directly from Tesla! :mad:
But I still take issue with people casually saying this is a scam.
The first video (in present day context) would be like what we are seeing with Optimus - "...here is what we are up to, this is what we have been talking about, we have got this far..."
The language being used recently on this forum is becoming really quite bitter and divisive (probably since Musk took on Twitter).
Angry voices with people seeming to shout overheated, under-thought emotional arrows at each other, is not going to help anyone - except BEV detractors.
I'm a Tesla fanboy in the respect that I want the technology to succeed, and I can still see a path to it happening, so I am forgiving of the missteps.
I still consider we are early adopters.
Initially, I thought being an early adopter meant just being patient, but I come to realise that there would be 'steps back' as well as 'steps forward'.
e.g. the removal of radar - have you seen the interview where Musk fully explains the reasoning? - Haha, and some of the speculation, a few months later, they might even try to change it to a narrow band radar! But heh, I'm still in for the long haul - even without my Ultrasonic Sensors! :)
But thinking of the missteps as a scam - that shouldn't happen!
If people who have bought and paid for FSD feel 'scammed' that is one thing, to suggest tesla is involved in a scam that is quite another.
Weasel words can pervert tiny bits of truth into a dark narrative of hate, which we experience with MSM every hour of the day, hopefully with open, honest discussion we can prevent that happening on this sort of forum?
I haven't bought FSD and probably never will.
When FSD in the US becomes a thing, I will watch and wait, and see how people get on with it, and then see how well it translates to the UK roads, and if I'm happy I will subscribe (sometimes).
Joshua Brown was typical of the way people were talking/thinking/acting with Autopilot back then - wildly overconfident youngish (ex-military bomb disposal) man watching videos with a laptop on his knee - who for whatever reasons took massive risks and paid for it. - I think that was his profile if my memory is correct?
I would dispute the way you, so authoritatively, mix the Brown story with the Mobileye story - surely a sort of a post-hoc rationalisation. Sorry to appear pedantic - but I think you may understand what I'm trying to say?
I believe the Mobileye story is more complex than even the removal of radar.
My real point is, I, probably like you, am also seeking that the truth be told about these stories because it really is important, so the language and tone of these discussions needs to be careful - to say the least.
Sorry for being a bore!
 
Did you actually read what I wrote?

How Nissan, BMW and Renault were all developing their cars and investing in infrastructure as far back as 2010, and Mercedes invested heavily in Tesla and provided a parts bin to get the MS going? To you that’s ‘kicking and screaming’?
You mustn't forget that the other manufactures had to produce some BEV so that they would be allowed to continue to sell any of their ICE cars in California, - the term has slipped my memory - Oh yeh 'Compliance vehicles'. That explains the tie up with Mercedes and Toyota.
But they have paid millions of $ over the years for Tesla to sell them some sort of Credits.
They still haven't taken up the challenge fully, you only need to look at their projections for building of ICE cars up to 2025 or 2030 to realise that the cars they plan to build will be largely ICE. BMW and Ford have recently given statements telling the world they haven't given up on gas engines (Jim Farley is all over the place on this).
Jaguar iPace is dying slowly and painfully in Austria after a spectacular start, they have yet to send out their first much heralded and promised Over the Air Update.
It is equivalent to asking people to continue using a horse and cart when the car is now available
Mary Barra and GMC who some people say leads the way to Electric vehicles is typical of legacy Auto - where are the 14 BEV models that were promised for the end of October?
The only people taking it seriously are Tesla and the Chinese - they have led and will lead well into the future.
They have been planning , recruiting and building up the supply chains and contracts for years in a timely fashion, the rest of the Auto Industry (The Tesla Killers) are scrambling pitifully to get a footing, never mind catch up, tied down with the wrong sort of factories and the wrong sort of engineers, and massively parasitic Unions and Dealerships.
Renault has recently divested itself of all Nissan shares (40%?) probably signalling Nissan will be the first to go bankrupt.
So yes, that could fairly be described as 'kicking and screaming'.
 
It's interesting that whenever there is a criticism of Tesla, or in particular Musk, the thumbs downs come out. I really can't understand hero worship of anyone, but the cult-like followers of him is worrying. It's worrying how much people are willing to go down the rabbit hole, that says one person and everything he says / does is beyond criticism. I saw the same thing with Trump followers, its just blind loyalty and its really unfortunate.
 

GeorgeSymonds

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Mar 16, 2018
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Mobileye and Tesla fell out because Tesla refused to put any restraint on its use. It’s Musks way, equivalent to his free speech argument that individuals should be allowed to do what they want. It’s a complex argument when it comes to cars, manufacturers don’t prevent cars from speeding, but something like autonomous systems and allowing someone to watch a video and not hold the wheel was arguably negligent. Everyone knew that at the time and Tesla only introduced the extra nags on the back of the inquest. Joshua Brown was responsible for his own death, but equally Tesla could very easily have introduced safeguards to have not let him get into the state he did. The internet back then was full of videos of people climbing into the back of the car while on AP and Tesla did nothing in response, it was free publicity. Mobileye wouldn’t stand it, and remember the exact same technology was deployed in numerous brands of car but none implemented in the same cavalier way Tesla did. They lived within a safety envelope that Musk chose to ignore.

The parting was abrupt and Tesla had no working alternative. It took nearly a year to have a basic autopilot working, but to maintain the impression it was around the corner and better they pumped out those videos. So you’re looking to buy a car, you’ve paid your deposit, you’re waiting for delivery and AP1 is taken away. Do you cancel or do you believe the software will be ready next week? And not only that, he out the price up to double down on the capabilities being better. There is no way it wasn’t known it Tesla the real state of play given when it was delivered a year later it was dreadful. That’s not a few bugs that need ironing out. The hardware wasn’t even capable.

And this is the continual promise we’ve had, it’s always been just around the corner, later this year, a big breakthrough is imminent, just look at Musks tweets on the subject. Maybe we need to discuss the definition of a scam. If it’s paying for something that will never be delivered then it’s 50/50 it will arrive on the early cars, many of which are not even covered by warranty now. Will we get things like city streets beta in the U.K. in the next 2 years? I’m not convinced. Taking payment for something when you know it’s not going to be delivered while the buyer owns the car is a scam to me. Will Tesla ever deliver FSD, then I’m sure they will deliver something at some point, but that’s not really the point that’s being argued.

Finally, look at the talk on safety and accident rates. Musk talks about the system already being safer than a human, what rubbish. Firstly the system gives up and doesn’t work in many conditions, especially outside the US, and when activated it’s saved by the human intervening stopping it crashing. There might be an argument that the combination of AP and an attentive driver is better than just an attentive driver, but to say anything else is like saying ABS drives better than a human because a car with ABS has fewer accidents than a car without. It’s this type of rhetoric from Musk that’s truly deeply flawed, and misleading, and if you mislead people you’re conning them.
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
1,452
11,215
Northampton, England
It's interesting that whenever there is a criticism of Tesla, or in particular Musk, the thumbs downs come out. I really can't understand hero worship of anyone, but the cult-like followers of him is worrying. It's worrying how much people are willing to go down the rabbit hole, that says one person and everything he says / does is beyond criticism. I saw the same thing with EDITED TO REMOVE POLITICS, its just blind loyalty and its really unfortunate.
It's interesting that whenever there is a support of Tesla, or in particular Musk, the thumbs downs come out. I really can't understand hate for anyone, but the cult-like detractors of him is worrying. It's worrying how much people are willing to go down the rabbit hole, that says one person and everything he says / does is bad. I saw the same thing with Willy Wonka followers, its just blind loyalty and its really unfortunate.

It's 2 mirror images. I've had enough of division, misinformation & corruption. The worst of the unreasonable, petty and sad people (EDITED TO REMOVE POLITICS) can go off, leaving the people in the middle talking, learning, growing. The hate that has been directed at Tesla, Elon & others is motivated by many things. Fossil Fuel/Oil Regime lobbyists, professional haters, Hatestream media driven by Fossil Fuel advertising/clicks/Russian & Saudi influence. Until the malign influences are recognised and countered, I feel it is reasonable to point out unreasonable attacks.

Without Elon, the world might not have survived. We were heading towards a point of no return for climate change, Fossil Fuel's influence over politics & journalism was strong. Now, there's hope. The greatest gifts Elon has given us are hope & a practical roadmap, in my opinion.
Currently we are at 100 million barrels of oil used each day worldwide – 20 million here in the U.S. At $55 per barrel, that’s about $5.5 billion per day. That’s another $2 TRILLION world market business. As the percentage of all automobiles that are electric grows, the demand for oil will diminish. Fully 50% of all oil goes to road transport. That is $2.75 billion per day. And for every day that future is delayed, is another $2.75 billion. It would be a $2.75 billion win if the adoption of the electric car could be forestalled for ONE DAY. The incremental growth of the automotive market is as I stated, inevitable and unstoppable. But for every day it is delayed, there are BILLIONS of dollars at stake. Literally the clock is running at $1,909,722 per minute on just that part of oil used by automobiles. The Tesla Conspiracy… or Am I a Dead Whistleblower? – EVTV LLC
 
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GeorgeSymonds

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Although…. the roads in England are much safer than the USA. I would be prepared to believe that whilst in use, with human supervision, that AP as an ADAS is safer than just a human driver on a USA freeway.
I’m sure, but that’s not a software v human argument, it’s a human supervising software v human alone argument. The way Musk tells the story, he thinks it’s the former.

There would be no point in a driver assist system that didn’t actually assist the driver. That’s the whole point. It would be a poor show if actually it made things worse. But a driver assist level 2 system is not an autonomous self driving system and that, including the city streets beta, is all it is.
 
Dress it up however you like, it’s a monopoly and that’s bad for the consumer.

Those franchises are competing for you and that means lower prices.
Franchises are middlemen competing for a cut of the profit. Tesla can only sell cars at a price that makes them competitive against other manufacturers. Tesla do not have a monopoly. Direct sales has nothing to do with monopoly.

The residual values of our first 2 Teslas made them fantastic value for money. I have had big list price discounts on other cars and it just gets reflected back in depreciation. Nobody takes their list prices seriously eg VW, Audi. Manufacturers who don't allow their dealers to discount heavily tend to have stronger residuals eg Porsche.

Basically no discounting means stronger residuals and that has been proven with Tesla. If Tesla did overprice their cars then their business model would have quickly failed for obvious reasons.
 

UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
1,452
11,215
Northampton, England
Franchises are middlemen competing for a cut of the profit. Tesla can only sell cars at a price that makes them competitive against other manufacturers. Tesla do not have a monopoly. Direct sales has nothing to do with monopoly.

The residual values of our first 2 Teslas made them fantastic value for money. I have had big list price discounts on other cars and it just gets reflected back in depreciation. Nobody takes their list prices seriously eg VW, Audi. Manufacturers who don't allow their dealers to discount heavily tend to have stronger residuals eg Porsche.

Basically no discounting means stronger residuals and that has been proven with Tesla. If Tesla did overprice their cars then their business model would have quickly failed for obvious reasons.

Each level takes their cut, enough levels (Dealer Group, Dealer Area, Dealer) and that's a lot of money & admin.

But enough wining... just thinking about disintermediation & the resulting lowering of prices should drive home the point

Disintermediation has several advantages. In addition to giving consumers simpler and more direct access to goods and services, it can also mean lower prices, because supply chains are streamlined and the fees charged by distributors and logistics providers are eliminated or sharply reduced. The advent of e-commerce made it possible for many companies to begin selling directly to consumers, some of whom had never done so before.

While the potential to sell directly via the Internet was appealing because of the potential for greater profits, it also had several drawbacks. First, disinter-mediation caused tension between many companies and their business partners, including salespeople, rep firms, distributors, dealers, and retailers. Because of this tension, industry trade associations like the National Automotive Dealers Association and the Wine Wholesalers Association took steps to preserve their roles. Their efforts made it impossible for wineries to sell wine online, or for automobile manufacturers like Ford and Chrysler to bypass local dealers and sell cars directly to consumers.
 
The residual values of our first 2 Teslas made them fantastic value for money
In case you haven’t noticed, second hand prices have been a bit mental recently so I wouldn’t read too much into that

FYI the BMW X3 I got 12k off of was sold a use and a half later for the same as what I bought it for. It literally only cost me the monthlies and fuel. Now that’s fantastic value for money.
 
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UkNorthampton

TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Jun 15, 2019
1,452
11,215
Northampton, England
In case you haven’t noticed, second hand prices have been a bit mental recently so I wouldn’t read too much into that

FYI the BMW X3 I got 12k off of was sold a use and a half later for the same as what I bought it for. It literally only cost me the monthlies and fuel. Now that’s fantastic value for money.
Most people I know hate going anywhere near spivs at dealers. I did pop in once or twice - hateful experience and mostly avoided by buying through intermediaries that had fixed prices - some importing from Germany & other countries bypassing the whole UK cost plus/spiv system. One car I bought new was 20% cheaper new than the cheapest resale price for a used one.

Much easier to use carwow, drive the deal and others. BMW are notorious for overcharging. I wouldn't deal with them purely on that basis and many others prefer fixed prices even in countries that do a lot of haggling. Brits are in general regarded as being bad at haggling - why invite a hateful activity into your life when it's not needed any more? Dealers add cost but no benefit. "Disintermediate them!" as the Daleks never said.

I have no interest in having anything to do with spivs & chancers. Think of the most hated "professions".

Here's one randomly sourced list

The survey of 1,200 UK workers reveals that these professionals are considered untrustworthy due to their lack of morals (66.4%), greed for money (62.1%), unreliability (56.5%) and irritating nature (26.6%). The list is as follows:

  1. Politicians (78.1%)
  2. Journalists (37.7%)
  3. Car salesmen (27.4%)
  4. Telesales (23.6%)
  5. Bankers (22.8%)
  6. Paparazzi (21.6%)
  7. Estate agents (14.6%)
  8. Recruiters (13.6%)
  9. Lawyer (8.7%)
  10. Bailiffs (6.7%)
 
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In case you haven’t noticed, second hand prices have been a bit mental recently so I wouldn’t read too much into that

FYI the BMW X3 I got 12k off of was sold a use and a half later for the same as what I bought it for. It literally only cost me the monthlies and fuel. Now that’s fantastic value for money.
Same with our 18 month old M3 LR. Sold for same as bought. So only difference is your "fake" £12k discount, which you needed to haggle to break even on the residual. That was my point. Your car effectively lost £12k over its fictional list price.
 
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