Glad to see everyone jumping into this discussion. As it happens, some family came in from out of state yesterday, so, for the next few days, it's a little tricky for me to post very much, but I'll try to catch up later with replies to the specific points being raised. For now, here are a few thoughts, Beyond a way of thinking about Tesla as an investment, I think this thread is leading us to discussing a very big and compelling topic about how a large very probable global event is going to play out, If it's going to be EVs, how and when does the battery supply happen? I'd kind of half want to rename the thread that. I think jhm's statement, "So the moat is not that others will struggle to build out battery supply. The moat is that Tesla will have the leading edge solution to build out the supply across the industry. Operating a Gigafactory is a commodity business, but designing and engineering Gigafactories is not." is quite an interesting one to think about. When Elon repeats a phrase often, it's often a harbinger of an as yet unannounced 3D chess piece. Elon has talked about for over a year "the machine that builds the machine." More recently, Elon responded to the question, ~"what's Tesla's strategic advantage?" with, ~ for now automation, over time, being the world' best manufacturer. So what jhm described may be getting at where Elon currently is trying to skate to and find a puck waiting for him... entities like nations with massive oil sovereign wealth, a scale of money Tesla (or the auto industry for that matter) doesn't have as potential partners for the world's best manufacturer with by far the most experience in building massive GFs. Of course, Elon's talk with a leader of UAE this week was very tantalizing, and led to some speculation along the lines of what jhm suggested by people here on TMC (fwiw, myself included). If it does I see a considerably slower timeframe than what jhm suggested, but I'll get to those details later. I'll also toss in that I think the idea being raised as to how consumers will react if there's a gap between EV supply and demand is quite interesting. I agree about the likelihood of people holding onto ICE longer until there are available EVs, rather than buy a new ICE. I've been thinking there might be a lot more "horse trading" going on, as up and down the all the price points for vehicles, people might sell their used ICE vehicle to upgrade for someone else's used ICE vehicle.