The Fractured Tipping Point Moat

[DragonWatch]

Thanks for posting this Rob. Perhaps for some of the incumbents, staying up on that cliff of milking ICE sales for more years will use future technology as PR messaging for what they are doing. That is, something like, "we're all for EVs, it's just that we have a responsibility not to effectively throw money away on investments in battery technology that is on the cusp of being obsoleted. Solid state (fuel cells, tbd) are just around the corner, and they are going to deliver the no compromise alternative to ICE vehicles that today's battery tech just cannot offer."

Check out this CNBC video from a few days ago, where Continental's CEO says that solid state will be ready about 2025, and around 2030 we will probably see the beginning of the decline of ICE sales. The way he delivers it, the fact that he's in the industry but not actually an automaker and he's got this quite specific scenario in mind (including ICE sales not diminishing until 2030), and the way it fits with the "50 foot cliff analogy" kicking the move to EVs down the road, it feels to me like a rehearsed talking point from some shared insider playbook we may come to hear steadily over the coming years,

Lithium batteries too large, expensive: Continental CEO

Thanks both of you @RobStark and @SteveG3 I find it interesting how fossil fuel engine companies have bosted for years (like the seventies) that technology was as good as it gets; yet now they claim to be able to squeeze blood out of a turnip by eaking out another 30% efficiency. I smell fear on their part.

 

[SteveG3]

Video out today of Phil Lebeau interviewing head of sales for Toyota North America.

This video is basically a poster child for what I’m very very confident will reveal itself over time to be the massive, perhaps historically unprecedented, moat detailed in this thread.

Toyota aims for electrified option for every model by 202...

Watching the video you can just about see the spots that, if things are going as they so strongly look to be, will be excerpted in retrospectives to be made in the 2030s about how the automotive titans got clobbered by Tesla and the Chinese, and how no one could see it coming.

4-6% market share for EVs in the mid to late 2020s was not a crazy call (well, if we’re talking outside of China)... but there’s a key point not stated... over 50% demand during for these EVs during this period of undersupply of the kind of vehicles consumers actually prefer.

 

[EinSV]

@SteveG3 I'm curious whether and how you think Tesla switching to an online business model will affect your fractured tipping moat thesis.

While there have been many product announcements from other legacy automakers, execution so far is lacking and it strikes me that Tesla's improved cost structure from switching to online sales might make it that much harder for legacy auto to compete and potentially slow their adoption of high volume EVs. On the other hand, it might encourage start-ups or Chinese EV manufacturers to adopt the new online sales model.

 

[RobStark]

Casa Grande preparing for Lucid's high-dollar Arizona car factory

Lucid Motors is going with an all online sales strategy.

Job1 is planned for Q4 2020, 20k units in 2021 and later 130k units per year.

2021 base price ~$100k, later base model introduced at $65k.

 

[dfwatt]

>SteveG3

If you go outside of the home markets, (USA for Tesla, Japan for Mitsubishi) you will find the Outlander Phev outsells the Tesla by a fairly decent multiple, perhaps 3:1 ratio. An extreme example would be the UK, were the Phev outsold the S by perhaps 10:1 EV Sales: UK

why is this relevant for electrification?

1st) Mitsubishi (and Tesla) are the 2 companies that first brought an EV to market, they are both the archetype pioneers. pick any country in the world and the first modern EV is either the roadster or the iMiev. The series run of the iMiev is probably greater than 10x the Roadster (point is, Mitsubishi was authentic in trying to promote EVs), but Mitsubishi PHEV program is far far more successful than their EV program.

2nd)Tesla model 3 will be a big leap forward, but so will be Mitsubishi next gen PHEVs, there is more room for development in the PHEV than the fairly mature EV tech. In particular the transition from 4cyl to 3cyl will be very natural for PHEVs. as is the increased power density of batteries (in addition to increase energy density), so the nature of battery technological progression is kinder to PHEVs than EVs

3rd) consumer choice, this is still a very young transition, but there is a parallel transition happening, that is from sedans/hatchs to SUV/CUV. Sedans and hatch are natural for electrification, but SUV/CUV are natural for PHEVication.

no way will Mitsubishi and Tesla be X-shopped, but the legacy manufacturers will assimilate lessons from both Mitsubishi and Tesla, A good example will is Volvo, Volvo's Future Electric Plans: 3-Cylinder PHEV In 2018, All-Electric Offerings With 100 kWh Battery In 2019

long term EVs will go to 100% market share, but in my country that won't happen until EVs can honestly do 1000kms on a single charge.(Syd to Bris, Syd to Mel) etc many cites are about 1000 km apart here. once cars get autonomous, people will want the 1000 km range. So there will be room for both versions of plugins for a long time.

It is only people buying negative disinformation about electric vehicles that actually believe or think they need a 600 Mi range for electric vehicles to be practical. This is total and utter nonsense. Particularly in the United States where supercharger coverage is now almost every 50 to 100 miles on every major road. You are reiterating disinformation. Surveys have shown that although people think they need more range in point of fact after 3+ hours of driving most people need to stop. We've driven our cars long distance all over the United States and after a bathroom break, getting coffee or a snack, there's about five or at most 10 minutes left in the charging cycle. So the notion that this need to charge is some huge inconvenience is again disinformation. Charging times are dropping and eventually they will get to the point where they are equal to a bathroom break and a quick snack.