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The Fractured Tipping Point Moat

DragonWatch

Small FootPrint
Aug 22, 2016
1,081
3,949
Mother Earth (Grapeview, WA)
Thanks for posting this Rob. Perhaps for some of the incumbents, staying up on that cliff of milking ICE sales for more years will use future technology as PR messaging for what they are doing. That is, something like, "we're all for EVs, it's just that we have a responsibility not to effectively throw money away on investments in battery technology that is on the cusp of being obsoleted. Solid state (fuel cells, tbd) are just around the corner, and they are going to deliver the no compromise alternative to ICE vehicles that today's battery tech just cannot offer."

Check out this CNBC video from a few days ago, where Continental's CEO says that solid state will be ready about 2025, and around 2030 we will probably see the beginning of the decline of ICE sales. The way he delivers it, the fact that he's in the industry but not actually an automaker and he's got this quite specific scenario in mind (including ICE sales not diminishing until 2030), and the way it fits with the "50 foot cliff analogy" kicking the move to EVs down the road, it feels to me like a rehearsed talking point from some shared insider playbook we may come to hear steadily over the coming years,

Lithium batteries too large, expensive: Continental CEO

Thanks both of you @RobStark and @SteveG3 I find it interesting how fossil fuel engine companies have bosted for years (like the seventies) that technology was as good as it gets; yet now they claim to be able to squeeze blood out of a turnip by eaking out another 30% efficiency. I smell fear on their part.
 

SteveG3

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Sep 21, 2012
4,013
15,450
US
Video out today of Phil Lebeau interviewing head of sales for Toyota North America.

This video is basically a poster child for what I’m very very confident will reveal itself over time to be the massive, perhaps historically unprecedented, moat detailed in this thread.

Toyota aims for electrified option for every model by 202...

Watching the video you can just about see the spots that, if things are going as they so strongly look to be, will be excerpted in retrospectives to be made in the 2030s about how the automotive titans got clobbered by Tesla and the Chinese, and how no one could see it coming.

4-6% market share for EVs in the mid to late 2020s was not a crazy call (well, if we’re talking outside of China)... but there’s a key point not stated... over 50% demand during for these EVs during this period of undersupply of the kind of vehicles consumers actually prefer.
 

EinSV

Active Member
Feb 6, 2016
4,338
21,882
NorCal
@SteveG3 I'm curious whether and how you think Tesla switching to an online business model will affect your fractured tipping moat thesis.

While there have been many product announcements from other legacy automakers, execution so far is lacking and it strikes me that Tesla's improved cost structure from switching to online sales might make it that much harder for legacy auto to compete and potentially slow their adoption of high volume EVs. On the other hand, it might encourage start-ups or Chinese EV manufacturers to adopt the new online sales model.
 
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