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The gen 4 Camry level 300+ mi range Tesla

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by daniel Ox9EFD, Apr 8, 2015.

  1. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    #1 daniel Ox9EFD, Apr 8, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2015
    With the announcement of the discontinuation of the model S60, Tesla made the financially responsible thing, which is also probably good for sales.
    At the same time, it proved again that people like their long range and performance, and Tesla as a high end OEM has to optimize for value-for-money, and not price 'at all cost'.

    With this in mind it is reasonable to expect an entry level 200 mi, 35k$ model to not sell as much as, say, a 300+ mi, 50k$ with more functionality.

    This begs the question - when will Tesla bring the true mass market EV.
    I think it needs to be even lower than the 35k$, and have 300+ mi range. So by these standards it cannot be the model 3. But Tesla being driven to bring EVs to the masses means it will be built.

    So lets call in the gen 4. On market ~2025?
     
  2. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    That would be "Model 4" in Tesla-speak. The question of "how much range do you need" has been debated endlessly, and all the data suggest that 200 real-world miles is enough. Is 300 better? Sure, but the extra 100 isn't free: it costs more, weighs more, and is physically larger. Tesla has no car at the 300+ range, and yet they have no apparent demand problems. What evidence are you thinking of that the mass market isn't willing to accept a 200-mile BEV?
     
  3. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    When the conversation comes up with friends and people I hear talking about EVs, the request is for longer range. As further proof, they discontinued the S40 and S60, but not the S85. I'm convinced that if they bring to market a S100, it will do very well.

    This forum has confirmation bias since many here in fact don't mind a 200 mi range. But from what I gather 'out there' more range is a must.
     
  4. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    Daniel, I think the Model 3 has been intended to be that vehicle. Granted cost has creeped up some from $30K, but battery costs will continue to come down. Someone at Tesla apparently told Andrea James (an analyst at Dougherty) this winter that Tesla expects battery costs to drop below $100 within the next decade. Thus, a 2018 $35K 200 mile Model 3 with a 50 kWh battery pack can become a $35K 300 mile Model 3 with a 85 kWh battery pack with the same profitability for Tesla before 2025. When you consider the owner will save roughly $1K/year over an ICE... this is a Camry competitor.

    As to Model 4? Tesla doesn't know... at least that's how it seemed when Elon was asked this at last year's shareholder's meeting. They are very likely to do a truck before another sedan (they've talked about doing a truck after the Model 3), but the Model 4 is quite up in the air. Despite Elon having said 200 miles is sort of a minimum threshold, I don't think he was including city cars for people who actually prefer such city cars to longer range EVs (I think those comments were really directed at other automakers to get in the game of 200+ mile EVs, and to distance Tesla from any association to the likes of the iMev). I think a ~2025 "Model 4" could just as easily be a well done 100 mile city car as a cheaper car with 2-300 mile range... or something else we are just too far from 2025 to recognize as the best option.
     
  5. dirkhh

    dirkhh Middle-aged Member

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    The interesting thing is that a LOT of people will TELL you that they need more than 200 miles. Why? Because they think of this as "how often do I need to go to the gas station". And they think of the two times a year they visit aunt Gertie.
    But in real life (with a car that is fully charged every morning) a large part of the population drives <100 miles a day. And the number of people who really frequently drive more than 200 miles a day is minuscule.
    So this is mostly a perception issue.

    (and as many have pointed out, the Model S 60 was much more likely discontinued because of a combination of changes in the ZEV credit system and to prepare for the Model X launch (with an X60 not reaching 200 miles range)... I used to own a 60 and in 18 months / 25k miles of driving it I can think of three occasions where I would have done better with a 70 and zero occasion where I would have needed an 85)
     
  6. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    Well if by that time Tesla is still only capable of doing one model at a time then are doing something wrong. They should be able to do a truck and another sedan.
    On savings I disagree on the relevance. People tend to mostly look at the price at purchase. And many would find it hard to spend $35K on any car.
    Perhaps the model 3 will simply have longer range over time. But that raises the question - is it a given that the 8% rate improvement in li-ion batteries continues that far?
    Ann Marie Sastry said in a presentation that it is plateauing already. With any such rule eventually you hit physical limits.
     
  7. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    Indeed, ordinarily many people overlook actual cost of ownership with lots of purchases. However, when you're reward for doing some basic math and a bit of long term thinking is a vastly better vehicle, I think this will not be so overlooked. Moreover, many people who never thought they'd spend more than $40K on a car have spent $70-110K on the Model S.

    Beyond dropping below $100/kWh, I don't know how much more savings there is to come from lithium ion batteries. However, based on the comment I mentioned I think it's a good bet that much will be achieved in the next decade.
     
  8. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    Agree on the $100/kWh. I see Sakti3 and Quantumscape coming up with solid state batteries at around that price point. Not so sure on 'when' though.
     
  9. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    More range is better, but cheaper is better. So it's a matter of compromise.

    Deliver a good 200 mile BEV at a reasonable price and I'm confident that it would be enormously successful, even amongst many people who now that it's not enough. The reason is that to me, the key to success is trip coverage. Once you get to 100 miles, you're into 1% of US trips, so when you combine the conveneience of charging at home, with 99% of trips within range, with fast DC charging on longer trips, you have a car that can be a primary car in a household, which makes the household more willing to spend on it.

    Model 3's price target isn't Camry oricing, but below that target, any cost recutions would significantly expand the market.
     
  10. GardenEye

    GardenEye Member

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    Completely agree. A friend with a Mclaren (not sure which) came up to me and asked me how many miles I could do on a full tank 'really gunning it'. I said about 190. 'Oh' he said, 'I only get about 180 in the Mclaren'.
    Now you don't hear about that in the press! Range anxiety is therefore completely irrelevant depending of course on the relevance of your situation.:confused:
     
  11. TDR32

    TDR32 Member

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    As someone who will only be able to afford a $25-30k vehicle for a while I could stretch to $35k for the model 3. The reason is I would save $200 a month buying the model 3 versus as ICE that gets 30-35 MPG combined. The $200 per month equates to roughly $10k difference in price.

    As for range 200 - 250 real world winter miles is perfect. I live in Maine and could travel to NH or CT to visit family with the current superchargers. Having the superchargers is the game changer and I would guess most of the general public doesn't understand that.
     
  12. Wb/m^2

    Wb/m^2 Member

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    Most, if not all people I encounter haven't grasped the fact that we "fill up" our batteries at home. Having explained that numerous times to many folks I think it's setting in with the ICE crowd I've talked with. The Model 3 sales will benefit from the Supercharging network being completed around the States and more businesses installing destination charging stations.

    I didn't purchase the 60 for those few times I visit family in more rural areas and the Supercharging network plan wasn't established/publicized to where I felt comfortable having the range it offered. The 70D would be absolutely perfect for me now. So it is with technology, I took delivery of my 85 just 10 days before the D announcement and it felt "outdated", this latest release is just another reminder of how quickly it all can change.

    I will gladly be one of the first to put down a deposit if they design and release a pickup
     
  13. eloder

    eloder Member

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    #13 eloder, Apr 8, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2015
    You can't treat Tesla like every other car manufacturer out there.

    I fully expect the Model S to still be in production in 15, 20 years. That Model S might be sporting a 150 KWh battery, have parking lot to parking lot autonomy, have several more external aesthetic options, be made out of more advanced materials, and have a 2.3s 0-60 performance option, but it'll still be a Model S at its core.

    They're supporting hardware upgrades to existing Roadsters, a car that never was truly mass produced and has been out of production for many, many years.

    People need to fully think of Tesla as a software/technology company, bringing the 100 year old automobile into the current modern age. You don't see Apple abandoning the iPhone nearly a decade after production--it still looks fairly similar to the original, but it's undergone a huge number of iterations. Same with the iPad, Apple Watch, and their personal macbook lineup. Tesla has abolished the concept of a model year. Improvements come fairly quickly and in smaller batches, rather than in discrete model years. Older models still receive support via OTA (much like older smartphones) while newer iterations have an increasingly vast number of hardware improvements.

    I imagine Tesla will eventually have a base model for all the current popular archetypes (sport coupe, microcar, truck, full-blown SUV, smaller and larger versions of each, etc.). You can bet that Tesla will be slowly evolving all of their vehicles year after year, but I highly doubt you'll see them one day discontinue the Model S, and replace it with a similarly-sized but wildly different family sedan like you see with manufacturers now.

    The similarities are striking between smartphones and Tesla. They're expensive and novel products, but people who previously never paid $650 for a phone are doing so, and are replacing that purchase frequently. They go through small but important iterations, both through hardware and software. Some people must always have the latest version (P85D folk who used to have P85+), while some will still be rocking an S40 for a decade without an issue.

    I think a lot of people, even those in the pro Tesla crowd, are not prepared for an equally transformative effect on our society within a short period of time that will happen due to Tesla. It's not just about EVs, it's about how the concept of an automobile is going to barely be recognizable in a decade, and current Tesla owners are getting the first taste of what's to come. I wouldn't be surprised if, just like the smartphone revolution, we see only a small few manufacturers adapt fast enough while the rest become as unimportant as Blackberry.
     
  14. daniel Ox9EFD

    daniel Ox9EFD Member

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    This is not about dissing Tesla. I'm saying that for the Camry buyer with only ~$25k to spend on a car, and you need a model at least as cheap, with range long enough that you don't even need to think about it - and that means you can charge once every few days without a home charger/parking spot, I'd say at least 300 mi, assuming you drive 60 mi a day, and charge mostly on weekends.
    This is what you need to *match* the expectations of such a demographic. Then you might have connectivity, nice performance to win them over.

    It's not unimaginable that you could make such a EV in around 10 years. Solid state batteries such as the one Sakti3 is developing could be on market by then.
    So we're talking $100/kWh, 1,143 Watt-hours per liter. That is around one third the cost of today's Tesla battery pack with twice the energy density. It's just about right.
     
  15. CHG-ON

    CHG-ON Still in love after all these miles

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    Camry? NFW!

    Range? I am completely happy with my 250 range (realistically with my P85+) I am completely happy.

    Camry? no way.
     
  16. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    No need to quote "Someone at Tesla":

    http://www.torquenews.com/2250/musk-raises-expectations-tesla-bold-new-statements
     
  17. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    If someone is scraping change out of the sofa to buy a car, then he is almost surely financing it. At which point, it's not about how much capital he has, but his monthly purchasing power. The equation absolutely should be comparing the sum of Car_Loan_Payment + Fuel_Cost + Maintenance_Cost, not sticker price. I'm sure the Toyota dealer will NOT make that clear.

    Your point about range is actually a point about infrastructure. If this buyer works for a company with a parking lot, the employer could be installing chargers--many have, and Massachusetts just announced a matching grant program for employers to install at-work charging. If this buyer lives in an apartment complex, the landlord can be persuaded to add charging points as a valuable amenity that will give her units an edge in the rental market. I agree that at present this infrastructure is missing or weak in most areas, but in the early ICE days, there were very few gas stations, too.
     
  18. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Active Member

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    Pardon me if this is obvious.....
    Tesla builds an expensive lux sedan delivered at a price point today's technology allows.
    With the GF and associated cost reductions, Tesla will build G3 that address the next lower market segment (or perhaps the next and a half...) as that is what technology will allow. It's a much bigger market.
    When technology allows for a ECam, someone will build that too. The market for that car will be even larger.
    When we finally get to pure capacitance gel, someone will build the EHundi for which the market will be even larger.

    Debating the marketing wisdom for segmenting a given market opportunity when your capabilities are limited by technology seems futile.

    Lastly, people will simply not get electric until they experience it first hand. I drove down to the Tesla store and placed a deposit on MS only after having lived with my Zero for a few weeks. Those few weeks showed me that (1) it was always "full" in the morning and (2) I never went further than the battery would take me in a normal day. Once these two things sank in, I stopped looking at the "gas gauge" and realized BeV was real. All I needed to see was the MS skateboard and my deposit was placed.

    The moral of the above for me is exposure. You can tell people that BeV is useful until you are blue in the face but the only way they are going to understand is by experience. WHEN Tesla needs to generate demand they will need to overcome that experience gap........ Sounds like a secret weapon to generate demand if ever I have heard of one :)
     
  19. Zythryn

    Zythryn MS 70D, MX 90D

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    Daniel, not everyone will be able to afford a Model 3. That is not Tesla's goal, nor are they capable of building in the quantities required to sell a car everyone can afford.
    The Model 3 is targeted at the BMW 3 series audience.

    Tesla is hoping to stimulate more competition and get other companies building more electric cars. So far that seems to be working, although more slowly than Eleon would like to see.

    For lower priced cars, you have other manufacturers. Just as if someone can't afford a BMW 3 series they can buy a Camry, someone that can't afford a Tesla Model 3 can buy a Leaf.

    As for range, it is surprising how most people that say they need more than 200 miles range, don't acually own an electric car.
    Many people drive less than they think, not all, but many.

    That is a challenge though, as people buy what they think they need, not what they really need.
     
  20. TDR32

    TDR32 Member

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    Agree 100%! I hope Tesla can make/keep this clear to buyers with the Gen 3. It is amazing how the focus is on the monthly amount but buyers don't realize the note is for 84 months.
     

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