Ciaopec
Active Member
If Tesla goes out of business, I'll buy your car so I have something to drive in Europe. All you will need to do is garage it and keep it charged for me!
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The "Is Tesla Going Bankrupt?" thread
- Thread starter Swissmoneychf
- Start date
If Tesla goes out of business, I'll buy your car so I have something to drive in Europe. All you will need to do is garage it and keep it charged for me!
gavine
Petrol Head turned EV Enthusiast
You need to think of this differently.
You can either listen to your co-worker, who doesn't seem that familiar with Tesla, random internet people on a car club site - or the obvious shorts who post negative things about Tesla's prospects in this thread, or you can listen to Elon Musk, a multibillionaire who Stanley modeled Tony Stark off of (from Iron Man).
Musk believes that Tesla can be a Trillion dollar company (google it, it is true!) which is about 50x bigger than today.
Rather than thinking about a car then, take the 100k and buy Tesla stock. It will eventually be worth $5,000,000 if Musk is right! Sell stock, pay taxes, then buy yourself and your family and friends each a car!
Sound difficult? Not really.
If you bought Tesla stock when the S was first available, you would have around 9x your money today.
If you bought Apple stock instead of buying the first iPod, you would have 100x more money today (for each iPod you didn't buy).
Think differently
Think long term.
You can either listen to your co-worker, who doesn't seem that familiar with Tesla, random internet people on a car club site - or the obvious shorts who post negative things about Tesla's prospects in this thread, or you can listen to Elon Musk, a multibillionaire who Stanley modeled Tony Stark off of (from Iron Man).
Musk believes that Tesla can be a Trillion dollar company (google it, it is true!) which is about 50x bigger than today.
Rather than thinking about a car then, take the 100k and buy Tesla stock. It will eventually be worth $5,000,000 if Musk is right! Sell stock, pay taxes, then buy yourself and your family and friends each a car!
Sound difficult? Not really.
If you bought Tesla stock when the S was first available, you would have around 9x your money today.
If you bought Apple stock instead of buying the first iPod, you would have 100x more money today (for each iPod you didn't buy).
Think differently
Think long term.
Tesla will do great, unless they can't get enough lithium to fulfill their battery needs. If that happens, it could be rough. OTOH, if Tesla succeeds, which I think it will, they are going to take market share from existing auto manufacturers and it is likely some of them go bankrupt. The world is changing.
Caboom
Member
Ditto!!
I have stock in the co. and i also sold puts at 100 way out at 2017 for exact reasons above. If the stock tanks because company cant raise cash on it's own the company is going to be acquired without a doubt. I have been trading in and out of Tesla and been selling puts since 2013 and have never had any option calls. The reason i sell is i would love to buy Tesla at 100 or below because it would be so attractive a buy for an established co (mentioned above) that the stock would rebound. So rest assured your car will always be taken care of. Even if Tesla for some crazy reason went away...there are enough vehicles for a secondary market in terms of parts and repair to exist. Right now the monopoly is on Tesla side and they also leverage the political climate where they are liberally supported by the US Govt who is fully bought into the green economy.
Buy and enjoy!
Remember Amazon. Stock watchers scratched their heads as Amazon lost money year after year. Instead of taking profit they made large investments back into the business. Suddenly, that thing called Cloud is hugely profitable, turning the whole company profitable, and Amazon is the market leader. And their online business dwarfs everyone else. Walmart is now buying Jet in a new bid to stay competitive. Tesla like Amazon is a market disruptor. I'm betting on them to win.
NikeWings
Active Member
I find it odd that you are rattled and scared by someone whose expertise you do not respect. Why isn't your colleague defending his position instead of you defending yours, and why do you feel the need to convince him otherwise (totally or partially)? There are endless stories of people with various motives saying the sky is falling......Herbalife is a $1B example. Do your own diligence, make a decision and move on. And if you are truly serious about a TSLA financial analysis, then here are a few pieces to begin your effort.
NeverFollow
Active Member
Tesla has so much a vision and took so much lead from any other car companies,
in particular some famous 100+ years old car companies.
Only a big recession and a crash of the stock market could affect it.
And if so, well Apple could then took over it, but Tesla would not die.
I would not say the same of any of the three American car companies.
The Model S is already the most car popular EV in US, sold twice as much as the Leaf which is three time cheaper.
The Model S also dominate the sale of the luxury market taking all the sales from other ICE luxury car companies.
For the very long term, there will be more competitions coming from other car companies,
but with a US market of 17 million of cars, and other markets in the world, there is still way for growing.
The only worry is the kind of saturation of the number of car owners able to plug their car at home.
Solution for charging car car parked at night in the street need to be promoted, using wireless technology for example.
in particular some famous 100+ years old car companies.
Only a big recession and a crash of the stock market could affect it.
And if so, well Apple could then took over it, but Tesla would not die.
I would not say the same of any of the three American car companies.
The Model S is already the most car popular EV in US, sold twice as much as the Leaf which is three time cheaper.
The Model S also dominate the sale of the luxury market taking all the sales from other ICE luxury car companies.
For the very long term, there will be more competitions coming from other car companies,
but with a US market of 17 million of cars, and other markets in the world, there is still way for growing.
The only worry is the kind of saturation of the number of car owners able to plug their car at home.
Solution for charging car car parked at night in the street need to be promoted, using wireless technology for example.
I've only skimmed the thread, so excuse me if someone already said this. There is a difference between a company strategically running in the red and a company on the ropes. If Tesla runs in the red by choice. If they cut back on R&D and capital expenditures the company would be immediately profitable. They make a per car profit that is much larger than just about any company in the industry. They just have a massive R&D and capital expansion budget compared to their revenue.
I wrote my analysis on the ways start ups go bankrupt and how Tesla doesn't really fit any of the scenarios:
Why I Think Tesla is Unlikely to Fail
The only scenarios where Tesla goes bankrupt at this point is if the world economy craters again or if they make some massive blunder with the Model 3. After the M3 reveal I'm even more confident the latter won't happen. There is really no other scenario where Tesla goes out of business.
If Tesla was to go out of business, somebody would probably buy the assets and milk them for all they were worth. Tesla averages over $20K profit per car built. That's a handy return for someone who just wants to build and support them with no R&D or capital expansion until the public tires of them and quits buying them.
Look at what happened to DeLorean which built far fewer cars than Tesla, but had a similar cache about them (less deserved IMO). There have been independent companies making parts to keep them running and a company in Texas bought the name and sort of resurrected the car. They are going to build some new DeLoreans in the next few years. That company has also been the biggest source of parts for keeping the remaining cars running.
There are too many Teslas out there now for them to become abandoned completely. Somebody will step forward to support them.
In any case, I expect Tesla to be around for a long time to come. If the M3 is the hit I think it might be, Tesla could end up being the biggest car company in the world in 20-30 years and some of the biggest names on the road today will be gone, swept away by the largest industrial disruption in history.
I wrote my analysis on the ways start ups go bankrupt and how Tesla doesn't really fit any of the scenarios:
Why I Think Tesla is Unlikely to Fail
The only scenarios where Tesla goes bankrupt at this point is if the world economy craters again or if they make some massive blunder with the Model 3. After the M3 reveal I'm even more confident the latter won't happen. There is really no other scenario where Tesla goes out of business.
If Tesla was to go out of business, somebody would probably buy the assets and milk them for all they were worth. Tesla averages over $20K profit per car built. That's a handy return for someone who just wants to build and support them with no R&D or capital expansion until the public tires of them and quits buying them.
Look at what happened to DeLorean which built far fewer cars than Tesla, but had a similar cache about them (less deserved IMO). There have been independent companies making parts to keep them running and a company in Texas bought the name and sort of resurrected the car. They are going to build some new DeLoreans in the next few years. That company has also been the biggest source of parts for keeping the remaining cars running.
There are too many Teslas out there now for them to become abandoned completely. Somebody will step forward to support them.
In any case, I expect Tesla to be around for a long time to come. If the M3 is the hit I think it might be, Tesla could end up being the biggest car company in the world in 20-30 years and some of the biggest names on the road today will be gone, swept away by the largest industrial disruption in history.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Personally I don't care if my car is powered entirely by the dirtiest electricity (Coal?) provided that, over time, my electricity supply becomes more green. Its Chicken & Egg - need more green electricity, also need to fix the vehicle fleet to make it more green, both can proceed at the same time IMHO. I have PV on my roof, so I'm probably carbon-neutral ... but I ain't using my own electricity, per se.
We replaced all our fire-breathing gas-guzzling sports cars with 3x VW BlueMotion Eco cars, a deliberate act to be more green. Look where that got me: shafted. Plus VW has no intention of helping me out [i.e. any European customer] (other than upgrading the firmware in the cars) so I am stuck with Finance I can't get out of early [without penalty cost] and possible diminished value.
Big, established, too-big-to-fail companies make bad decisions and tank too ...
1. Lithium is a very common element. A few years ago when the Model S first started someone indicated that it would take 11 million cars per year to put a dent in the potential supply.
2. Lithium in batteries is 100% recyclable. The Gigafactory was designed with recycling facilities. Lithium supply won't be a problem.
3. Lithium-ion batteries have very little lithium in them. An entire 90 KWh battery pack has less than 5 Kg (11 lb) of lithium in it. The entire pack is over 1300 lb, about 700 lbs of which is the batteries alone. It's less than 2%.
Tesla uses a lithium, nickel, cobalt, aluminum oxide cell. The newer cells have a small amount of silicon. 9% is cobalt, less than 2% lithium, and the anode is graphite (carbon). Cobalt is hard to come by in the US, it's one of the few minerals that isn't found in abundance here. Canada has better reserves than the US, but Cuba has the best reserves in the western hemisphere, though Australia and the Congo have the best reserves in the world.
For the foreseeable future, the world cobalt production is more critical for making batteries than lithium supplies. New chemistries may change that, but that's the bottleneck today.
This thread does not really need more, but there are a couple important issues to add.
European 2020 emission standards and US 2025 fuel economy standards will demand alternatives that are vastly more efficient and cleaner. That is forcing the massive investments by most major motor vehicle manufacturers.
Tesla and BYD have the only currently scalable BEV capacity worldwide. That excludes Nissan, which will be there imminently. Every other automaker is in serious need of new capacity, new designs and attractive options.
If Tesla encountered problems either Daimler Benz or Toyota would probably rush to buy them before bankruptcy. Both have had Tesla supplied technology (MB B class EV, Toyota RAV4 EV) both once owned 10% of Tesla. There would probably be a bidding war with many major automakers plus Google involved. In any event we owners will be well protected.
Wdolson above points out we probably would not suffer even if Tesla went out of business, which is by far the least probable outcome.
Finally, dealing with securities is an entirely different question. There rumor and emotion create turbulence. TSLA is a volatile stock, but Tesla has enormous capacity to raise money. It could, if pressed, even adopt the conventional dealer distribution model which would instantly allow it to record sales on shipment rather than end buyer delivery. It could sell and lease back Superchargers, Service Centers and Stores, or sell those to third parties too.
Many alternatives would exist far before bankruptcy or even near-bankruptcy. Now that existing production has passed the critical 50,000 per year (Porsche, Jaguar, Land Rover were all there not long ago and transformed themselves with no small drama, but owners were not affected). Just to be honest Inwill not discuss Saab, but support is not difficult even for them. Tesla has a much more compelling position than did any of those.
European 2020 emission standards and US 2025 fuel economy standards will demand alternatives that are vastly more efficient and cleaner. That is forcing the massive investments by most major motor vehicle manufacturers.
Tesla and BYD have the only currently scalable BEV capacity worldwide. That excludes Nissan, which will be there imminently. Every other automaker is in serious need of new capacity, new designs and attractive options.
If Tesla encountered problems either Daimler Benz or Toyota would probably rush to buy them before bankruptcy. Both have had Tesla supplied technology (MB B class EV, Toyota RAV4 EV) both once owned 10% of Tesla. There would probably be a bidding war with many major automakers plus Google involved. In any event we owners will be well protected.
Wdolson above points out we probably would not suffer even if Tesla went out of business, which is by far the least probable outcome.
Finally, dealing with securities is an entirely different question. There rumor and emotion create turbulence. TSLA is a volatile stock, but Tesla has enormous capacity to raise money. It could, if pressed, even adopt the conventional dealer distribution model which would instantly allow it to record sales on shipment rather than end buyer delivery. It could sell and lease back Superchargers, Service Centers and Stores, or sell those to third parties too.
Many alternatives would exist far before bankruptcy or even near-bankruptcy. Now that existing production has passed the critical 50,000 per year (Porsche, Jaguar, Land Rover were all there not long ago and transformed themselves with no small drama, but owners were not affected). Just to be honest Inwill not discuss Saab, but support is not difficult even for them. Tesla has a much more compelling position than did any of those.
Unlike some others here, I actually think there's a greater than 50% chance that Tesla will fail, but that doesn't mean that it will be liquidated, and that its parts can no longer be manufactured. It also doesn't mean that the vehicle will have a severe failure early enough in its life that that it inconveniences you.
I don't own a Model S or X. I have a Model 3 reservation and intend to buy a low-end Model 3 (if Tesla makes it for the original price, or I can buy a slightly better spec with a tax credit.)
I don't own a Model S or X. I have a Model 3 reservation and intend to buy a low-end Model 3 (if Tesla makes it for the original price, or I can buy a slightly better spec with a tax credit.)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Because it is the largest manufacturing employer in California.
Besides Google, which made Musk an offer to buy Tesla in 2013, California's Governor would likely not let Tesla fail.
I'm not sure if Tesla is the largest manufacturing employer, but they are the among the highest profile manufacturers in California. The Los Angeles area has the highest density of manufacturing jobs in the US.
One reason Elon Musk put SpaceX where he did was because of the aerospace talent in the Los Angeles area. At one time the Long Beach, El Sugundo, Inglewood area had Northrop, Douglas, and North American aircraft factories. Burbank had Lockheed. Hughes Aircraft was also in the area, though not a major manufacturer. Right after Pearl Harbor the War Department looked at where all the aircraft were built and had heartburn that over 75% of US aircraft building capability was within range of carrier aircraft off the Pacific Coast (between the concentration in Los Angeles plus Consolidated in San Diego and Boeing in Seattle).
But I'm picking nits. I do agree with you that the state government would step in to prop up Tesla if nobody else did. The company is way too important to allow to fail.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I tried googling the data, I could not find the article I read several months ago but Tesla is now the largest manufacturing Employer in the State of California.
Boeing was for a time but they have moved lots of jobs out of state.
The thing about Solar City is that they purchased a factory in New York (IIRC) not that long ago, but they haven't started producing the next-gen panels in it (or at least I haven't heard about if they had--I don't follow Solar City all that closely). I wish it had a different name though. Now we have three SC acronyms associated with Tesla.
John Stuckey
Member
Myself, like many in the wings who have not pre-ordered a 3 will be glad to buy a 3 that someone ordered in 2016.
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