The market is so broken

[strider]

You think so? I was thinking we would be several years away from inventory being where it was pre pandemic due to the chip shortage.

I agree that new orders will continue to be slow, although I do expect people will start cancelling and instead keep their existing vehicles for longer.

I also expect the recession will cause people to sell their cars or default on their loans which will increase used inventory and bring prices down.

Increasing supply is not an option. The only way for the Fed to stop inflation is to cause a recession. Demand must be destroyed to the point that supply catches up and prices fall.

 

[strider]

That's something we are considering. Will the Model Y hold it's value long enough to be less depreciative that the typical vehicle is? Especially if I have to take out a longer term loan to purchase one.

With a couple of years to go, I do not think that it would be a good idea. There will be a ton of other EV models available by then and interest rates will be going down. Once the recession bites and unemployment starts going up, the Fed will start cutting interest rates. I would not lock in a high interest rate for a long term.

 

[ElectricNerd]

With a couple of years to go, I do not think that it would be a good idea. There will be a ton of other EV models available by then and interest rates will be going down. Once the recession bites and unemployment starts going up, the Fed will start cutting interest rates. I would not lock in a high interest rate for a long term.

Could always refinance at that point but I get what you are saying. Due to the rates going up we are looking at a rate in the 5s for a longer term to encompass the cost of the Model Y. Still only in the preapproval stage since we don't know what we want to do just yet. Wasn't sure if Tesla had better rates themselves.

 

[alangold]

This company has terrible reviews and sometimes does not transfer titles properly - there are a lot of disclaimers about the actual car or price you would pay - I don’t think they actually have all the cars listed - many complaints on this company on BBB

 

[Fairchild]

Interesting. I wonder how they got their hands on so many very low mileage EVs.

No secret. You can order as many as you want.

 

[phaheem]

Despite the crazy market right now, Teslas have (in my experience) held their value well somewhat regardless of the market.

For example, I paid ~$42k in July 2019 for my M3SR+, and the later blue book value in December 2020 (1.5 years later) was $40k, with 9,000 miles on my odometer.

Purely anecdotal, I know.

 

[kelpcar]

My wife and I are having this exact discussion about car prices. We know in a couple of years we will need to get another vehicle as we will have a new driver in the house and she will take one of our current vehicles. We are discussing do we add a 2nd EV (Tesla is what I'm pushing for) or do we wait? Are car prices just going to keep going up and up the next few years or will they plateau once this inflation/recession period is over? I can get a Bolt EUV for half the cost of a Model Y, though I know the MY is larger and the Bolt can't use the Tesla Supercharger network. The Supercharger network is what really pulls me to Tesla for getting a second EV. But, the MY will be right near $1000 a month no matter what I look at. Never have I paid that much for a car payment....

Chevy had to lower their prices to make up for the reputational hit of the battery problem. If you're satisfied with the fix, and the car is large enough for your near home needs, it's the only EV car selling at a discount. Since you already have a Tesla, it strikes me as a very attractive route to go, esp if the new driver in the house is a teenager.

There should be a lot of availability in 2024 or 2025, and the 2 million is missing production is probably resolved by then, so the dealers and the used car market will be back to equilibrium. The Bolt is a tideover.

Back on the original topic, Koons has 20 locations across Virginia and Maryland. It's not quite accurate to think of it as a single dealer.

 

[kelpcar]

Despite the crazy market right now, Teslas have (in my experience) held their value well somewhat regardless of the market.

For example, I paid ~$42k in July 2019 for my M3SR+, and the later blue book value in December 2020 (1.5 years later) was $40k, with 9,000 miles on my odometer.

Purely anecdotal, I know.

it's true for nearly all vehicles right now, but especially for EVs and trucks. It's a consequence of the macro conditions. But when the supply gets back to full, we'll be back to seeing used cars depreciate based on their popularity (or not) and by the quality of readily available new models. Right now, even if you think VW or Hyundai/KIA or BMW are making a better model, you can't really get it. And if true 400 mile LFP based vehicles (or better) become common, then 300 mile NCAs will probably diminish some. Won't matter to those keep it for 10 years, but would for the upgraders.

 

[phaheem]

it's true for nearly all vehicles right now, but especially for EVs and trucks. It's a consequence of the macro conditions. But when the supply gets back to full, we'll be back to seeing used cars depreciate based on their popularity (or not) and by the quality of readily available new models. Right now, even if you think VW or Hyundai/KIA or BMW are making a better model, you can't really get it. And if true 400 mile LFP based vehicles (or better) become common, then 300 mile NCAs will probably diminish some. Won't matter to those keep it for 10 years, but would for the upgraders.

Right. Just thought it was interesting that my 2019 SR+ lost just $2,000 in value after 18 months and 9k miles and December 2020, and this was before the chip shortage and supply chain really became and issue

 

[Superjohn]

Most of the Tesla my demos that come up available are starting over 80k (with FSD) so I don’t know if those are really marked up that much

 

[SteelClouds]

I've been seeing a ton of 2021 Ys with low miles.. between 10K and 20K going for 75K plus. Not including tax and tags. .and crucially, not including the mandatory included "paint protection blah.. blah.. " the dealers are adding in for 2-3K.. so you are over 80K for a 2021 used Y. I had found a used 2021 M3 to maybe replace my 2019 because I really want to get the long range version. when I read the fine print about the 2,500 added protections. I told the dealer to go away. he will sell it.. but not to me . For the price he was asking, I can get a new one in four months. For less money

 

[SteelClouds]

Chevy had to lower their prices to make up for the reputational hit of the battery problem. If you're satisfied with the fix, and the car is large enough for your near home needs, it's the only EV car selling at a discount. Since you already have a Tesla, it strikes me as a very attractive route to go, esp if the new driver in the house is a teenag

Meh.. I picked up a used BMW i3 for my teen.. Cheaper.. less range but has more "cool" to it than the Bolt.. I did ask

 

[fishy21]

You’re paying for time, and not having to wait 4-12 months for a car to be delivered from Tesla. Some people need cars right away for whatever reason…. Plus with gas prices, the markup might eventually break-even in a few months (shorter than waiting for a new Tesla).

Crazy… but if there wasn’t a demand, dealers wouldn’t be marking it up this high.

 

[Stirthepot]

tesla is marking up the used cars they have for crazy prices too New & Used Electric Cars | Tesla

the reality is people pay it, some because they want it now, and others because they need it now. think about the person that loses their car to an accident or theft and needs a new car right away for work purposes or its their only means of transportation daily, i know plenty of single car households. those people can't wait. it sucks for them, but that is the market right now.

 

[ElectricNerd]

I've been seeing a ton of 2021 Ys with low miles.. between 10K and 20K going for 75K plus. Not including tax and tags. .and crucially, not including the mandatory included "paint protection blah.. blah.. " the dealers are adding in for 2-3K.. so you are over 80K for a 2021 used Y. I had found a used 2021 M3 to maybe replace my 2019 because I really want to get the long range version. when I read the fine print about the 2,500 added protections. I told the dealer to go away. he will sell it.. but not to me . For the price he was asking, I can get a new one in four months. For less money

Yep. There's a dealer in DFW that has several Model Ys, and I asked about a 2021 MYLR 5 seater that was white/black with Gemini wheels. They were asking $69k for it but with their added dealer crap of $3500 and even with me trading in my '21 Model 3 SR+, I would have been looking at $75k plus. No thanks.

Their dealer add on crap included gap, paint protection, interior protection, and windshield chip protection. I hate dealers.

 

[Stirthepot]

i'll add that if you can afford to wait and currently have a tesla, its a great time to sell. earlier this year i sold a 2020 Y LR for 5k more than i paid for it and bought a 2022 Y P for about the same price i sold my used one for. free upgrade to a newer car and the P.

 

[ElectricNerd]

I'm currently awaiting word from Tesla on the trade in for my '21 Model 3 SR+. I have a Model 3 LR on order that supposedly will be ready in the next few weeks. I also have a MYLR on order that won't be ready for at least 4-10 months depending on the time of day my EDD shows. My thought is to trade the SR+ in for the Model 3 LR, and when the MYLR is ready do the same since I know the used ones/trade ins are going for higher than what new are.

 

[alangold]

I'm currently awaiting word from Tesla on the trade in for my '21 Model 3 SR+. I have a Model 3 LR on order that supposedly will be ready in the next few weeks. I also have a MYLR on order that won't be ready for at least 4-10 months depending on the time of day my EDD shows. My thought is to trade the SR+ in for the Model 3 LR, and when the MYLR is ready do the same since I know the used ones/trade ins are going for higher than what new are.

When you say waiting word from … do you offer your trade in online or you call them ?
I don’t have a trade in as I sold my Mazda to carvana - but it seems like owners are able to upgrade their cars by flipping them for more $

 

[ElectricNerd]

When you say waiting word from … do you offer your trade in online or you call them ?
I don’t have a trade in as I sold my Mazda to carvana - but it seems like owners are able to upgrade their cars by flipping them for more $

Waiting to see what their offer is.

 

[phaheem]

Meh.. I picked up a used BMW i3 for my teen.. Cheaper.. less range but has more "cool" to it than the Bolt.. I did ask

The i3 is a perfect car for a teen. Ideal city car