The Model 3 I want is getting pretty expensive

[zer0cool]

So as I think about it, the Model 3 that I want is getting pretty expensive... I am going to estimate option prices based on pretty much industry standard in this class (e.g. BMW 3 or MB C class).

Base car: $35k
This probably comes with 50kwh battery and is good for 220 range.

So I want more range. I think likely we ll see 65 and 80 batteries for Model 3. It's pretty much Tesla's standard rate to charge 9k for each 15kwh. So if I want the 80, it's additional:
$18k

Everyone will probably want AP. AP pricing has only increased instead of down and it probably wouldn't be any different for Model 3, so :
8k

I want leather seats: 1.5-2k
Sunroof (pano): 1.5-2k
Metallic or premium color: 1k
Better rims: 1.5k
Better audio: 1k

For these above, I intentionally have them be cheaper than Model S since these are generally cheaper on this class of cars compared to their higher versions in other brands as well. These prices are well in line with BMW or MB option prices.

Nav is not standard for any car in this class. And most cost 1.5-2k. Not sure if on Tesla it would be standard or not, but I assume not, so add the 1.5-2k.

Generally a cold weather package like heated seats is not standard in this class, so 0.5k.

I am sure there will be other packages, like premium interior, sports appearance / suspension (e.g. similar to Msport package in BMW for say 2.5k, which changes suspension to M sport suspension), etc. I want the better suspension, so 2.5k.

Ok let add all of these up:
72-73.5k.

This is without a most certainly available performance package that ll provide insane/lud acceleration. I am sure they can tag 10k on top for that. I don't need that, so I am not adding. Oh of course AWD is likely 3k, but since I am down south maybe I can forego that. However it does add 10 miles of range, so maybe it's worth it. So if I add that, I am above 75k.

 

[Booga]

I think you're right and the price is now a concern of mine. I will trim it down to the mid-range battery, AP, and the winter package. If the audio package is really $1k and includes a subwoofer, then I'll likely go for it. AWD is a feature that would be nice to have for better range and handling in snow, but I don't really need it, so I'm flexible on that too.

Depending on the pricing of the options, there's a chance I will delay my delivery and/or just wait another 5 years for prices to have fallen a little bit.

 

[flamingoezz]

I'm hopeful that with batteries done at 5x the scale they are produced now, at Tesla's own Gigafactory, that the pricing will be cut 25% from their current costs for the Model 3.

I'm also hopeful that AP2 costs will be cut to be more in-line with their previous retail costs by the time that M3 is released (3K + 2K for full autonomy).

that may cut 7500 off your estimate...I'm afraid though that this car is going to be more than most anticipated when you start getting options. On the bright side, those that weather the storm will likely get their car a little sooner as some reservations may drop out in the coming weeks.

 

[jbcarioca]

You probably are roughly in line with what will happen. In teh speculation threads I have speculated that the fully loaded car will probably be roughly $100,000. Still all indications are that battery packs may be at ~70% of current cost with Gigafactory so I expect battery upsize to cost around $5,000 per 15kWh.

I'd guess 60 kWh base with ~250 mile range; and 85 kWh for ~$10,000 with ~350 mile range or something about like that;
We know they priced AP 2.0 at $8,000 for S and X. Model 3 just might be lower, maybe $5,000;
Nav will certainly be standard, unlike the others, since it is essential for long range BEV planning, among other things;
I would not argue about your other points, but still my logic would yield a price of $50,000 with these two options only, so Elon's plan of $42,000 typical purchase price would rise to about $50,000, reasonable given the two intervening years.

With your other choices and assorted goodies not yet known, like Supercharging for life, and we still can rapidly end out in the >$90,000 range without too much doubt.

Since the current P100D I have sitting in MyTesla right now totals $157,500 I have no difficulty seeing the upper limit of the Model 3 at $100,000.

To stay below $75,000 you'll need to exclude a few goodies like special wheels. Of course, we shall see in a years time or maybe sooner...

 

[zer0cool]

It's possible battery could get cheaper. That would be a big plus. However I think initially that's not going to happen. The GF will likely be at full capacity just to produce the amount of battery needed, with no capacity to improve cost efficiency...

AP2 is actually extremely cheap by industry standards. On a 2017 MB E class, which has the most advanced driver assistance in the MB range, the suite is included in the premium 3 package which costs 10k and the display dash costs an extra 1k. On 2017 Audi A4, you need to get prestige trim (which starts at 9k above the base trim) to be able to add a 2k option for driver assistance. Both of these suites are not nearly as good as even AP1. Honestly I don't know how Tesla is making money at 8k for AP2.

Things I think can be cut are say AWD, improved suspension and may something else... As how I see it, the absolutely needed are at least mid battery, leather seats, sunroof, nav, AP. Suspension is impossible to tell right now. It depends on how well Tesla can make their suspensions; also on how the base Model 3 suspension is tuned. E.g., Msport vs non-Msport suspensions on BMW drive completely differently. One drives like a true BMW while the other feels more like a Lexus... I mean if I were spending 50k on a 3 series, adding Msport is a no-brainer. It is what defines BMW. So if Model 3 has a similar sports package, it might not be avoidable (e.g. if they tune their base suspension like that for a family sedan, which I fear will be the case).

On nav. It wasn't standard even on the original Model S. Only became standard in late 2014. My previous boss had a 2013 Model S and you had to get a 4.5k tech package to get nav. The Google map, GPS, etc are all there. But you couldn't just enter and address and have the car direct you there. You can find the location on Google map, but you just won't get step by step directions... Also on this class of cars, adding Nav generally gives you a bigger screen. We ll have to see if Model 3 does something similar. I hope not... cause it's basically asking 2k to unlock a software that really is already in the car (well well sounds like something else).

 

[commasign]

Still a bargain! The Model S P100D I want is $167000 plus tax!

 

[Boourns]

I would adjust your estimation in the following ways:

1. I bet there will be two battery sizes for the 3. Base and 75. And it won't cost as much to upgrade as it does currently with the S/X.
2. I think AP (even the new stuff) will be cheaper than it is currently for the S/X.
3. I am almost certain that some of your other calculations using Tesla class competitors won't apply. I.e., heated seats are standard in the S/X and there is no sport suspension. You will probably have a choice of coils or air suspension and that's it.
4. Generally I think (granted with little more evidence than you have) that the 3 options will cost 50% to 80% of what they do on the S/X.

I think a loaded non-ludi 3 will run about $60k and you will be able to get a pretty nice one for $50. But of course no one really knows for sure.

 

[vforvortex]

I configured a Model S with your preferred options to see how it would compare...
75 kwh Base $74,500 (249 mile range)
Sunroof $1500
Metallic Paint $1000
Tires 21" $4500
Leather Seats $2500
Enhanced Autopilot $5000
Full Self-Driving Capability $3000
Ultra High Fidelity Sound $2500

Total $94,500 (before incentives and includes $1200 destination and doc fee)

(Also need to consider that Model S has Supercharger as standard feature and Model 3 might be a $2k add on.)

Decisions...Decisions...
I will have to show some restraint when ordering to keep a $35k car from becoming a $70k car.

 

[zer0cool]

Well the example Model 3 in my first post probably has close to 300 miles range, so that will be where it's better. Also I was probably too high on sunroof price, maybe -0.5k there, paint price for this class is generally 0.75k instead of 1k, so some saving there. Also maybe nav is standard so -1.5k there. So that's about 2.5k savings off my initial estimate. So let's call that around 70k, compared to 95k Model S.

I think that's pretty reasonable. Otherwise no one would by Model S's. Smaller car, probably interior is a bit less good, not as good looking etc.

 

[jonnyg]

I don't know why everyone is expecting to get a sweet car with every single possible option that's a little smaller than an S for like half the price or something of an S/X. Tesla said they would make an even more affordable car than an S in their master plan. As in less expensive, not super cheap but still amazing so that every person on the planet could buy one. It's still a luxury car and not everyone is going to be able to afford it and not everyone that can buy one can get it loaded for an extra $15k or whatever they think they deserve.

Hopefully things like this will cause people to start being more reasonable about all the options they want to cram into their budget.

/rant

 

[Garlan Garner]

Tesla hasn't even presented a price list yet. Have they?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Man, these numbers are tough.

I might actually have to finance the last 3 or 4K to take delivery.....

sell my 2015 Audi that I already paid off....

pay off the Model 3....

and wait for my tax credit.

Times is tough.

 

[jgillispie]

I don't know why everyone is expecting to get a sweet car with every single possible option that's a little smaller than an S for like half the price or something of an S/X. Tesla said they would make an even more affordable car than an S in their master plan. As in less expensive, not super cheap but still amazing so that every person on the planet could buy one. It's still a luxury car and not everyone is going to be able to afford it and not everyone that can buy one can get it loaded for an extra $15k or whatever they think they deserve.

Hopefully things like this will cause people to start being more reasonable about all the options they want to cram into their budget.

/rant

I'd agree its a bit over the top. However a car that starts at $31,000 less should end at $31,000 less with the same options or close to it. The 3 is not in the luxury category; it's just a electric compact.

 

[Zaphod]

This has been hashed over in many threads already. If one looks at the S pricing, going from no option base 60 to fully loaded P100D (prior to this latest AP pricing changes) was like ratio of 2.5X. Apply that same ratio to base $35K 3 give you $87,500. Makes sense to me.

 

[jsrawa]

I guarantee that there are many who think their $1000 reservation is going to get them a $35000 car with a $7500 tax credit and neglected to consider how much a car optioned to their preference would cost or they simply don't know just like all of us. Now with self driving costing $8000 and even a more basic option at $5000 I think many will drop out when it comes time to open their wallets but time will tell.

 

[flamingoezz]

I guarantee that there are many who think their $1000 reservation is going to get them a $35000 car with a $7500 tax credit and neglected to consider how much a car optioned to their preference would cost or they simply don't know just like all of us. Now with self driving costing $8000 and even a more basic option at $5000 I think many will drop out when it comes time to open their wallets but time will tell.

Yea, I could definitely see some people with budgets in the $35-45K range dropping out. AP is one of the things that really excited me about the M3...luckily I can probably squeeze at least AP2 in the budget without compromising other options I wanted, but there are probably many who expected it to be $2500-3000 and are going to be waiting another year to get less car than they've been dreaming about for the past year.

 

[jgillispie]

I guarantee that there are many who think their $1000 reservation is going to get them a $35000 car with a $7500 tax credit and neglected to consider how much a car optioned to their preference would cost or they simply don't know just like all of us. Now with self driving costing $8000 and even a more basic option at $5000 I think many will drop out when it comes time to open their wallets but time will tell.

Yep; it's really going to come down to if AP was a significant part of the reason they put down the reservation. I had assumed I would have to pay extra for AP and knew I wasn't going to get it, at least with the initial purchase. Knowing it can be turned on later is actually nice to lean on for those financially on the fence.

 

[dsvick]

The 3 is not in the luxury category; it's just a electric compact.

Not quite, the M3's targeted competition is in the entry level luxury class. Which makes it even more surprising that people are surprised that some of the options cost a sizable chunk of money.

 

[brianman]

Tesla hasn't even presented a price list yet. Have they?

Correct.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Not quite, the M3's targeted competition is in the entry level luxury class. Which makes it even more surprising that people are surprised that some of the options cost a sizable chunk of money.

Having just bought an Audi a few years back, I knew what I was getting into. At least Tesla gives you the option to break many of their options into ala carte offerings, instead of having to purchase the prestige package like I did from Audi.