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Blog The Model 3 Needed New AP Hardware, But Not For The Reason Everyone Thinks

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Alketi, Aug 16, 2017.

  1. Alketi

    Alketi Member

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    Summary: The Model 3 reportedly contains Autopilot hardware dubbed “v2.5.“ News outlets have yet to fully explore the meaning and purpose. Tesla isn’t providing a full explanation because they don’t want to tip their hand and they don’t need you to reserve a Model 3 — yet. Welcome to anti-sell and production-hell!

    READ FULL ARTICLE
     
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  2. 3Victoria

    3Victoria Active Member

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    Good supposition, and a real possibility. This doesn't mean that the S/X don't continue to be excellent and very attractive cars to be yearned after. I did find your right style a little 'harsh' -- for example quoting 'Tesla's biggest fans' with out some explicit sarcasm indication makes it hard to tell if you are spinning positive or negative on this story. EM knows that avoiding a dip in income during the critical early ramp of the 3 is important. Tesla is just trying to say that the S/X exist, and one can buy them immediately or custom order without great delay, but for most of us, the wait for our 3 is still long -- here in Canada our estimate is late 2018 :eek: unless we can some production in a window before the 200,000 rebate crossing :rolleyes:
     
  3. ecarfan

    ecarfan Well-Known Member

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    Brilliant analysis, thanks for posting.
     
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  4. T34ME

    T34ME Member

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    The possibilities are inspirational! Besides the potential for "ride sharing" in the sense of a robo-taxi, this concept will allow a rapidly aging world population to remain increasingly mobile in a vehicle that will transport them safely to the most essential destinations - groceries, medical, visits to friends and family. In fact a family member or care giver could program a car to achieve these tasks from a distance for someone who is forgetful or can't adjust to new technology that is beyond their lifetime experience level. The future is at hand!

    Although a smart phone will be the input for remote accessibility and the key card will be kept in a wallet or purse for backup entry, the smart phone is comparatively bulky and the key card could be inconvenient. I would like to see a "smart watch" with Bluetooth capability, worn on the wrist to gain entry with basic programmable functions and to set personal profiles. And that will happen too, sooner than later.
     
  5. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    The one obvious point to add to the article is as soon as you can hire your car, you can pay lease or loan payments for the car that way making it possible to "own" a Model 3 for say 5-10k. Talk about making electric cars affordable!
     
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  6. voip-ninja

    voip-ninja Member

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    For me, ride sharing isn't about letting complete strangers pay me to use my car when I'm not using it. It's really unlikely I could ever get on board with that. No matter how polite most people are there are enough out there that are going to eat their lunch in your car, spill their coca cola, or scrape the door against something when entering/exiting the vehicle to EVER make it worth while FOR ME.

    It doesn't matter if a camera caught what happened and they are liable or my insurance will pick it up. It's the irritation of dealing with the problem and the insult to my personal vehicle, which is an extension of me the way that a tailored suit is.

    Where I see big value in this if I keep the car long term is that at some distant point in the future the car would be able to take under-age family members on errands that I don't have time to run. Or go pick up my take out food so that the car pulls up, alerts the establishment who puts my items in the frunk and then the car whisks it back to me.

    That's the real value of this technology to me.
     
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  7. Phrixotrichus

    Phrixotrichus Member

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    #7 Phrixotrichus, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
    That "article" is on the same level as all the " 9/11 Bush did it "-tinfoil hat stories. Nothing but superlatives and fanservice in there, seriously....
    All that`s missing is a picture of someone kneeling in front of a Musk-altar.....
     
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  8. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    Nice work on the article. Curious though if the S and X will get the ride-sharing-enabling upgrades soon. Why not?
     
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  9. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    Hmm and at least you have the camera to catch "under aged family members" if they eat in, scratch your car etc. No I get it.
    I would much rather deal with known family than strangers when things go sideways. Still not everyone can afford lease/loan payments and this would be a great option for someone of less means to own an awesome electric car.
     
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  10. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Member

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    With fully autonomous driving, what will all those "soccer Moms" do all day?

    You can send your car out to run errands for you. Stop at the dry cleaners, do some banking, grab a pizza, pick up the bowling trophies, take kids to school, etc.

    It can pick up your friends and relatives at the airport or Hyperloop platform.

    Could change the way we live our lives.
     
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  11. pace

    pace Member

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    If ride sharing works as Musk has contended, then a different way of thinking about the car is that once it has depreciated to whatever point you are comfortable, you can put it into service rather than selling it. IF these cars work as intended, then they should be able to go out and make $30-50 / day. You wouldn't want to put that kind of usage on your personal car, but it would be a terrific way of monetizing your car's end of life and recouping a goodly amount of what you put into it.

    In effect, it puts a floor on the value of any used 2.5+ Tesla, since their value will not be based on what someone is willing to pay so much as the amount of revenue that they can produce in a given market.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that Tesla is making the hardware investment now to make all of these cars capable of L5 autonomy in the future. This is a long term bet for them, but they will have very large market advantages entering the ride sharing market if 400-600k used Teslas can be put into use as autonomous taxis without any further capital cost.
     
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  12. J1mbo

    J1mbo Member

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    Good blog, and overall agree with the conclusion. However, I disagree with the theory about using the internal camera as a security/audit device for ride sharing. For starters, it doesn't have full coverage of the interior.

    If you have seen the NVIDIA Co-Pilot presentation, you can see NVIDIA's intended use is to assist the driver by checking the direction of the driver's gaze and their attentiveness, and for bringing things to their attention that they may not have noticed. (Sidenote: can't think of anything more annoying than being second-guessed as to whether or not I have noticed something on the road ahead. Bad enough when the missus does that). IMO Co-Pilot needs a HUD to be useful.

    Using the principal of KISS, I would guess that Tesla put the camera is there to eliminate the need to hold the steering wheel to prove attentiveness for EAP, and to safely pass control back to the driver in FSD mode should when the need arises.

    In the medium term, it could be used as a biometric device to ensure that the person who tries to drive the car is authorised to do so - either because they own the car, or because they are renting it through the Tesla Network. It could also ensure that the authorised driver is sitting in the driver's seat rather than their 12-year old daughter...

    More effective than a password, but supremely annoying if it doesn't recognise you half-way through a drive because you just put your sunglasses on ;)
     
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  13. Alketi

    Alketi Member

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    Agree voip-ninja, but think about it this way. People (entrepreneurs) can eventually buy Model 3s solely for ride-sharing. Ultimately, one of Tesla's automatic chargers can be set up and the whole thing will require very little interaction. Others can use the features just for friends/family.

    Apparently S and X are getting the 2.5 HW, though it's not year clear if that includes the interior camera. What S/X don't have are 100% software controls. Can the frunk/trunk be prevented from opening? The glove-box? I'm not sure. The Model 3 makes more sense for future ride-sharing just based on it's price and design.
     
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  14. kzod

    kzod Member

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    Fun read, reminds me of all the proof that HUD's would be in every car too. Obviously the S & X will be getting all the same hardware upgrades.
     
  15. Alketi

    Alketi Member

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    #15 Alketi, Aug 16, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
    I agree that nVidia presented was a horrifyingly annoying implementation of Co-Pilot.

    One thing I would caution is that while we know how nVidia used the camera, we don't know the field-of-view of Tesla's camera.

    Tesla could easily increase the FOV and still observe the driver. If the entire car is built for ride-sharing, why would Tesla only focus the camera on the driver? Widen the FOV and also observe the interior. It's obvious. But, we'll see.
     
  16. WileyTheMan

    WileyTheMan Member

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    At what point does the article stretch the truth to conspiracy levels? Yes, his writing is flowery and dramatic, but they are all valid assumptions based on facts. Please, provide details on what is unbelievable.
     
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  17. Alketi

    Alketi Member

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    I don't believe in conspiracies nor would I characterize this as one. (I'm the author)

    It's a rational choice for Tesla to not explain the full Model 3 use-model for two reasons:

    1. They're drowning in reservations and would rather you buy an S/X today, rather than wait 18 months. That's rational, not conspiratorial.

    2. They have a ton of work left to do on Autopilot and they still don't have any FSD features, so the Tesla Network is likely more than 2 years away.
     
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  18. EdFerg

    EdFerg Member

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    @pace - I like the idea of using the car as a revenue generator rather than selling it. It would be interesting to work out the "business plan" based on predicted usage, tax, insurance, and liability implications.
     
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  19. Foxhound199

    Foxhound199 Member

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    I think the idea of it remembering your preferences is intriguing, but raises one interesting question: If you and another person who drives the car (such as spouse) approach, how does it know which one is the driver? I'm wondering if the USB ports for the phones can help in such cases. That is, plugging your phone into the driver's side charge port automatically syncs the system with that driver's preferences, and plugging the passenger's phone into the passenger USB automatically loads the passenger's side preferences.
     
  20. Alketi

    Alketi Member

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    Another good point. As a someone in UI what I would do would be to present two (or more) large buttons on the main display with the appropriate names. Driver presses his/her name and everything customizes.

    Alternatively, they could base it off the phone dock, which would be more automatic, but I don't think you'd want to make that mandatory.
     

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