The Model 3 to Model Y Swap: An Attempt at a Cost Analysis

[SageBrush]

Being who I am, I had to make a spreadsheet. I expected it to be trivial but I soon realized that there are a bucket of assumptions and subjective matters that go in to assigning values

• Depreciation value ?
• Model 3 to Model Y value ?
• Interim model improvements values ?
• Include taxes, cost of lost mods ?
• ... there is a long list

After a while I decided on a paradigm that organized the costs into two parts: how much Tesla charges for a Model 3 today (as a surrogate for depreciation), and how much more Tesla charges today for the Model Y than the Model 3. So I tweaked, and tweaked until I ended up with something that makes sense to me. Of course my wife disagrees with many of my choices so I added options to include or exclude many items. This also makes the sheet more of a flexible toy to enjoy, and has a sniff of a sensitivity analysis to it.

I decided to share the spreadsheet to hear comments and to offer it up as a template for anyone who wants a head start on something similar. To make it your own so you can edit, make a copy.

 

[Jay1001]

In the same boat here, decided to switch from a 2018 Model 3 to a Y. The fact that Y is a hatch, the fact that it is a newer/bigger car, and other factors make sense to me. The cost is around 30K to jump with selling the 3.

 

[westernvine]

We just switched from a 2018 M3P to a 2022 MYP, with insane resale values now, our net cost was forfeiting the worthless FSD package that we chose not to get on the Y. So, great upgrade, so much more space, for $10k.

 

[evanm]

This is a great spreadsheet, thanks for sharing.

 

[tashtibet]

I replaced my 2018 RWD M3 for MY in June 2020 and few months later I was short on heated steering wheel, double pane glass, hepa filter, boombox. You can't wait on Tesla -you just have to go with the flow. Life's always uncertain-hence, enjoy NOW. Else several months later you will find missing 4680 etc-are you gonna wait, wait, wait ?

 

[SageBrush]

Else several months later you will find missing 4680 etc-are you gonna wait, wait, wait ?

There is a middle ground. I don't want *it all.* I want some of the upcoming goodies. And for now, I have a get-out-of-jail-card: I can always sell the Model Y and get in line again. As much as a 4680 pack may be appealing, my wife and I agree that CCS charging will take the sting out of missing out on increased range. That may be a lot more attainable near-term goal.

 

[Zorg]

We just switched from a 2018 M3P to a 2022 MYP, with insane resale values now, our net cost was forfeiting the worthless FSD package that we chose not to get on the Y. So, great upgrade, so much more space, for $10k.

Same here. Sold 2018 3 LR FSD for 45.5 in July and got Y LR for 60 in Sept. $15k to upgrade wasn't too bad.

 

[PNWLeccy]

I've been entirely too analytical about justifying the upgrade from 2018 M3LR RWD to 2022 MYLR. Some costs are easy to quantify and other intangibles are more difficult so any math would ultimately be a fuzzy estimate.

Here's a little bit of my framework for thinking about it:

• Financial:
  • Buy/Sell
    • Buy MY: $61.5k
    • Sell M3: ~$45k
  • Upcoming costs (Mostly a wash)
    • M3:
      • Maintenance:
        • Tires: ~$1k
      • Accessories:
        • Sell:
          • MaxSpider floor mats, frunk mat, trunk mat: -$300
          • Roof rack: -$100
    • MY:
      • Maintenance:
        • Possible tire replacement (All-weathers): $1k
      • Accessories:
        • Floor mats: $200
      • Software:
        • ($120/yr x 5) premium connectivity (Free lifetime premium connectivity on M3)
      • Seattle registration (can't transfer)
        • ~$1200
• Features:
  • Features gained/loss with an upgrade to MY
    • 6/2018+ features added:
      • MY-specific
        • AWD
        • Hatchback
        • Additional ground clearance
      • Heatpump
      • Boombox/PWS
      • HW3
      • Updated center console
      • Glovebox USB
      • USB-C
      • 82kw battery
      • front double-pane glass
      • Heated steering wheel
      • Dual sprayer windshield wipers
      • Bioweapon defense/ HEPA filter
    • 6/2018+ features removed:
      • HomeLink
      • Free lifetime premium connectivity
      • Frunk grocery hooks
      • Rainbow glass
      • Plastic dead pedal
  • Possible added features in new MY
    • Near-term upcoming features:
      • AMD Ryzen chip
      • 12v Li-ion
      • Rear double pane glass
      • Trunk cargo cover
      • Heater wipers
    • Future features:
      • 4680 cells
      • Front/rear casting
      • New color options

But there are additional factors that are difficult for me to value such as:

• Taking advantage of the current elevated M3 resale value (~$8-10k higher trade-in offers than 1.5yrs ago)
• Discounted MSRP vs. Current Pricing ($53.5k vs. $59k)
• Features included on MY order that have changed for current orders:
  • 1000 referral miles vs 0
  • $100 order fee vs current $250
  • 1/yr included premium connectivity vs. current 1/mo
• Possible missed future tax credits
  • BBB Proposed Federal EV tax credit: ~$8k
  • WA State Proposed EV credit: ~$7.5k
• New Warranty (4yr/50k)

So depending on how you do the math, I'm paying ~$16k for a new car with a ton of nice new features but with roughly the same range. The MY already addresses every issue I have with my current M3 (Hatchback, ground clearance, AWD, additional space).

I hope to capture some of the near-term upcoming features (especially AMD chip) but won't be devastated if I don't get them. The future updates timeline is just too murky to base any decisions on.

Tax rebates are the only area where I could get hosed but I suspect if both Fed/state tax credits pass, I can resell and buy a new MY since I highly doubt resale values will drop by $15.5k ($8k Fed, $7.5k State) and I'd still be able to make some money and possibly get some upcoming updates as well.

 

[MyYisBluOn20s]

Being who I am, I had to make a spreadsheet. I expected it to be trivial but I soon realized that there are a bucket of assumptions and subjective matters that go in to assigning values

• Depreciation value ?
• Model 3 to Model Y value ?
• Interim model improvements values ?
• Include taxes, cost of lost mods ?
• ... there is a long list

After a while I decided on a paradigm that organized the costs into two parts: how much Tesla charges for a Model 3 today (as a surrogate for depreciation), and how much more Tesla charges today for the Model Y than the Model 3. So I tweaked, and tweaked until I ended up with something that makes sense to me. Of course my wife disagrees with many of my choices so I added options to include or exclude many items. This also makes the sheet more of a flexible toy to enjoy, and has a sniff of a sensitivity analysis to it.

I decided to share the spreadsheet to hear comments and to offer it up as a template for anyone who wants a head start on something similar. To make it your own so you can edit, make a copy.

I enjoyed your spreadsheet very much with 2 call outs:
1. How come final value is negative? Wouldn’t you include benefit of selling the Y in the end. are you saying that cost to own/use is $18.5k? Over how many years?
2. Tires estimate of $600 is light, even for the 19 inch ones ( inclusive of install). I’d put $1k.

 

[westernvine]

We lucked out on our Seattle RTA tab renewals... technically our registration expired in early December, and Tesla took the trade-in 3 days expired, but the visible plate tabs were good through end of December.

It's a major bummer we can't do monthly or a refundable portion for tabs in our state. Makes these big cliffs when next year's $1,000+ registration comes due.

 

[Zebelkhan]

In the same boat here, decided to switch from a 2018 Model 3 to a Y. The fact that Y is a hatch, the fact that it is a newer/bigger car, and other factors make sense to me. The cost is around 30K to jump with selling the 3.

Hmm $30k is a lot. If you don’t need it, don’t give in to the hype.

 

[Zorg]

In the same boat here, decided to switch from a 2018 Model 3 to a Y. The fact that Y is a hatch, the fact that it is a newer/bigger car, and other factors make sense to me. The cost is around 30K to jump with selling the 3.

What 3 do you have?

 

[ElectricIAC]

We just switched from a 2018 M3P to a 2022 MYP, with insane resale values now, our net cost was forfeiting the worthless FSD package that we chose not to get on the Y. So, great upgrade, so much more space, for $10k.

Considering doing the same here.

 

[El joe]

Made this seamen change last year. 2018 LR AWD Model 3 w/EAP to a 2020 Model Y LR AWD w/FSD and 8,000 miles. I had to put $2,000 down and am paying around $250 more per month, but the benefits are outstanding. Plus I get to be a beta tester, which I never use.

 

[Jay1001]

Hmm $30k is a lot. If you don’t need it, don’t give in to the hype.

Agreed.....but in my case it make sense for me.

What 3 do you have?

Long range

 

[Zorg]

Agreed.....but in my case it make sense for me.

Long range

How do you come up with $30K? Can't you get at least $45K for your 3?

 

[SageBrush]

1. How come final value is negative?

I'm not sure I am being consistent, but I was shooting for a number that reflected the value of the upgrade, as opposed to the cost of the upgrade. Since the cost was positive, I set the value as negative so that I could sum them for a savings estimate. I could have set each value as a positive number and then taken the difference.

It really is a matter of preference.

As for $600 tyre savings, if I has kept the Model 3 I would have swapped out the current tyres for AS with snow rating and paid for installation. You may well be right that it would have cost more than $600 but I am a penny pinching shopper so I gave myself some credit ;-)

Cheers !

 

[whisperingshad]

Hopefully you get the 82KW battery

 

[Dennisis]

I did this last year; sold my 2018 M3 Jan 2021 and ordered MY, received Jun 2021. I did very well on re-sale but didn't quantify the cost, close enough for me to get the increased storage capacity, accessibility, and ride height. Can't put a dollar figure on how nice it is to have a vehicle I really like driving every day. Not an excuse to be stupid with your money but keeping in mind your days are limited (opportunity costs) should figure into your calculations .
Edit: I should add, at some point down the road I'll sell this one too and get all the new features - good advancements on the horizon!

 

[Dennisis]

I did this last year; sold my 2018 M3 Jan 2021 and ordered MY, received Jun 2021. I did very well on re-sale but didn't quantify the cost, close enough for me to get the increased storage capacity, accessibility, and ride height. Can't put a dollar figure on how nice it is to have a vehicle I really like driving every day. Not an excuse to be stupid with your money but keeping in mind your days are limited (opportunity costs) should figure into your calculations .
Edit: I should add, at some point down the road I'll sell this one too and get all the new features - good advancements on the horizon!

I just realized I put the wrong dates! M3 sold Jan 2020, MY delivered Jun 2020. Time flies!